Tyler Herro’s Best and Worst Case Scenarios for the 2026-27 Season

Tyler Herro is getting a fresh start with his hometown team, giving the former All-Star another opportunity to show just how good he can be.

Herro has already accomplished plenty during his NBA career. He has established himself as a strong three-level scorer, won Sixth Man of the Year, captured the 3-Point Contest and earned an All-Star selection. Now, with a new opportunity in front of him, the question is whether Herro can take his game to another level.

There is plenty of reason to believe Herro can have a big season. At the same time, some of the concerns that followed him during his time in Miami could carry over into his next chapter.

Here is a look at the best and worst-case scenarios for Herro this season.

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Best Case: Herro Becomes a 25-Plus Point Per Game Scorer

The best-case scenario for Herro is that he embraces his new opportunity and finally becomes the 25-plus points per game scorer he has shown the potential to be.

Herro has never lacked offensive talent. He can score at all three levels, create his own shot and punish defenses from beyond the arc. With another opportunity to take on a significant offensive role, there is a path for him to put together the most productive scoring season of his career.

A major part of that would be becoming more consistent. Herro has already shown that he can carry an offense for stretches, but taking another step as a scorer would require him to maintain that production throughout the season.

If everything comes together, Herro could find himself averaging at least 25 points per game while continuing to provide value as a shooter and playmaker. That type of season could put him right back into the All-Star conversation.

Herro has flirted with 50/40/90 shooting splits in the past, has one of the league's most efficient floaters, and is obviously a threat from beyond the arc, put together a full, healthy season, and Herro can prove to the league who he is supposed to be.

Worst Case: Miami's Concerns Follow Him

The worst-case scenario is that some of the issues that plagued Herro during his time in Miami follow him to Milwaukee.

The biggest concern is his defense. Herro has never been viewed as a strong defender, and if that remains an issue, opposing teams could continue to target him on that end of the floor. That becomes even more problematic if his offensive efficiency takes a step backward.

Herro's efficiency will also be worth watching. If his scoring increases but comes with a significant drop in efficiency, the additional offensive production may not have the impact expected. He will need to balance volume with efficient shot-making.

Then there is the biggest variable of all: availability.

Herro has played more than 70 games in a season just once in his career, doing so during the 2024-25 season when he earned his first All-Star selection. Staying healthy will be critical if he wants to make the most of this opportunity.

The talent is there for Herro to have a breakout season. The question is whether he can put everything together and stay on the floor long enough to make it happen.

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