How the Milwaukee Bucks can surprise like past NBA underdogs

Nothing ever goes as planned, especially in sports. If people and analysts knew everything before it happened, then the regular season wouldn't be worth playing. Every year in every sport, media and experts predict the season before it happens to give people some insight into where teams will finish. The NBA is a prime example.

Every year in every sport, media and experts predict the season before it happens to give people some insight on where teams will finish. The NBA is a prime example.

A league that shows constant movement with an eventful offseason and teams that can build off the momentum from last season. Based on roster construction and what was accomplished in the previous season, we're able to get a sense of where teams will finish.

Of course, there are the championship contenders, dark horses, playoff chasers and the rebuilding teams. However, among the 30 NBA teams in the league, there are always bound to be a few teams that prove the preseason projections wrong, whether that's for better or for worse.

Teams people thought that were going to be playoff-caliber teams end up underperforming and teams people thought that were going to be at the bottom of the barrel end up shocking the league. One of those teams that's looking to do so are the Milwaukee Bucks. After the relationship between Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks withered away, a change needed to be made.

Milwaukee traded Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis to the Miami Heat for a sizable haul that included four players and some future draft picks. The Bucks struggled with Antetokounmpo over the past few seasons, losing in the first round of the playoffs and recently going 32-50 while he only appeared in 36 games.

You remove a generational player who’s won two MVPs and almost averaged 30 points per game over six seasons from the equation, and you have a recipe for a disastrous season. But for the Bucks, they've been projected by many outlets to finish at the bottom of the league, and they're trying to prove the doubters wrong.

While people may roll their eyes at the Bucks fans who think they can be a fringe playoff team or sneak in as a play-in team, it's not the craziest thing. Teams have outperformed their win totals in the past after being projected at the bottom.

Teams who proved the predictions wrong

May 17, 2026; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Pistons guard Cade Cunningham (2) is defended by Cleveland Cavaliers guard/forward Max Strus (2) in the second half during game seven of the second round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Little Caesars Arena. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Heading into the 2024-25 season, the Detroit Pistons came off a franchise-low 14 wins and finished with the worst record in the NBA. The following year, they hired a new coach, J.B. Bickerstaff and added multiple pieces: Tobias Harris, Malik Beasley, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Dennis Schröder.

Even with the new pieces, outlets like ESPN projected their win total around 29 wins, ranked them as t and gave them a 2.1% chance to make the playoffs.

NBA.com writer Shaun Powell also stated "Teams that win less than 20 games don’t make strong playoff pushes the very next year. This likely means a tough season ahead and another trip to the Draft lottery (in what’s projected as a solid 2025 draft)."

The Pistons followed that by finishing the year 44-38 and locked down a playoff spot by earning the No. 6 seed in the Eastern Conference.

The Sacramento Kings came off a 30-52 record and extended their playoff drought to 16 years heading into the 2022-23 season. Sacramento's win projection was around 33-34 wins for ESPN and had another season with them missing the playoffs.

The Kings hired Mike Brown as their head coach and added Keegan Murray, Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter to give them more depth. Sacramento not only finally made the playoffs and ended the drought, but secured a top-3 seed by winning 48 games.

A young team like the Charlotte Hornets didn't have much expectation this past season especially after coming off two bad seasons. Charlotte only won 19 games during the 2024-25 season and finished with the third worst record in the NBA.

The Hornets were projected around 29 wins by ESPN even after they made moves in the offseason by adding Collin Sexton, Kon Knueppel, Liam McNeeley, Sion James and Ryan Kalkbrenner.

An Eastern Conference with numerous talented teams was going to make it hard for the Hornets to find a way to compete. Zach Roberts wrote for the Hornets ONSI also predicted Charlotte to miss play-in and only rack up 34 wins.

"34 wins is probably what the Hornets will end up with, and that's not enough even for the play-in," Roberts said. "The play-in game has lately been between teams around .500, and the Hornets won't be quite that good, although this is still a huge improvement."

Not only did Charlotte exceed more than 34 wins by 10, but they also made the play-in with the No. 9 seed while being one game away from clinching a playoff spot. It's hard to say confidently that Milwaukee is going to be a competitive team with a loaded Eastern Conference and a roster on paper that isn't the most attractive compared to other teams.

But it's a new era for the Bucks. The team has gotten younger, added more depth and have a handful of talented players that are waiting for a chance to blossom. Milwaukee hired Taylor Jenkins as their head coach and built chemistry over the summer working together.

So before we immediately count the Bucks out before tipping of the new season in October, remember that surprises happen and there's always a team that's looking to spoil the predictions.

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