NBA Finals Expert Predictions: X-Factors and Series MVP Favorites in Knicks vs. Spurs

The NBA Finals between the Knicks and the Spurs begins on Wednesday with Game 1 in San Antonio.

If the playoffs have shown us anything, it’s that Victor Wembanyama is officially here and the entire league needs to figure out how to stop him. New York has the next crack at it after the defending champion Thunder came up just short in the Western Conference finals. The Knicks, however, are on a playoff run that we haven’t seen since the 2017 Warriors.

Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns & Co. ran through the Eastern Conference and are taking an 11-game winning streak into the Finals. The team that made it out of the West was always going to be a different animal, especially now that the red-hot Knicks will battle Wemby and the Spurs. So, how will it all shake out?

From top storylines to title and Finals MVP picks, here’s what Sports Illustrated’s NBA staff thinks is in store over the course of the Finals.

What storyline are you most interested in throughout the NBA Finals?

Chris Mannix: How will this series be officiated? As one NBA assistant noted in my newsletter on Tuesday, the refs’ whistle will play a role. A more physical series favors the Knicks, who would love the freedom to wrestle with Wembanyama, à la Isaiah Hartenstein early in the Western Conference finals. A more free-flowing game likely favors San Antonio, which can funnel Knicks players toward Wembanyama on defense and attack the rim more liberally. The NBA released its list of 12 Finals officials this week. Let’s see how they call it.

Blake Silverman: How can Wemby wow us once again? We saw Wembanyama’s heroics throughout the Western Conference finals and specifically his signature performance in San Antonio’s Game 1 win in two overtimes. Each time he steps onto the floor, he puts forth a never-before-seen highlight, so what will he do on the NBA’s biggest stage? Whether it’s a monster slam, jaw-dropping three-pointer from the logo or an emphatic swat that defies human logic, Wembanyama is guaranteed to show out in each game of the Finals in one way or another. It’s just a matter of how he does so.

Liam McKeone: Can the Knicks maintain the tremendous vibes? New York has gotten this far through tremendous team chemistry, a dedication to sharing the ball and an admirable collective understanding that it’s in everyone’s best interest to feed the hot hand at every opportunity. There’s been some adversity to fight through with how rough the playoffs were to start and the epic Game 1 Eastern Conference finals comeback. But at large this has been a joyous playoff run for the Knicks without a lot of bumps in the road. How will this group of players, who seem connected in all the important ways, maintain their chemistry after they get knocked down for the first time by big, bad Wemby? That feels like a critical part of this series. There’s no universe in which New York strolls to a championship the way the team has strolled to the Finals. They’ll have to scratch and claw to raise the Larry O’Brien Trophy, and they’re going up against a Spurs team that knows all too well the labors of postseason basketball after a seven-game slugfest against the defending champs. How the Knicks respond to their first encounters with adversity since mid-April will go a long way toward defining the series.

Ryan Phillips: How New York City plays a role in this series. The vibes in the five boroughs are off the charts right now and the city has become a huge part of the Knicks’ recent run of dominance. That should only heighten during the Finals. While the Spurs have home court advantage, those games at Madison Square Garden will be unlike anything San Antonio’s young core has ever experienced. The crowds outside, and inside MSG will be intimidating. New York has been waiting 53 years for their Knicks to win a title. This is the best chance the franchise has had in more than 30 years. That will be felt every moment on the floor at the Garden.

Dan Lyons: I’m fascinated to see how Towns performs. The Knicks got out of their funk against the Hawks by utilizing KAT more as a creator, though in the Cavaliers series, Brunson became the clear focal point again. Will Mike Brown and New York’s staff try to run more through KAT once again, with the likelihood that he is assigned a smaller wing defender as Wembanyama floats around the paint? Can he make the Spurs pay and force them to consider pulling Wemby to the outside? This can be a legacy-making series for so many players, but Towns can really make his mark in this one.

Who is the biggest x-factor that can swing the series?

Mannix: OG Anunoby. Can Anunoby slow Wembanyama? Few players fascinated the Leon Rose–led front office more than Anunoby, who brings extraordinary size and strength to his position. It will (likely) be on Anunoby to wrestle with Wembanyama in the paint and attempt to slow down the Spurs’ young superstar. Can he do it? Others have tried, with limited success. Anunoby’s goal will be to make Wemby inefficient, more perimeter oriented—and stay out of foul trouble along the way.

Silverman: De’Aaron Fox. The Spurs’ lead guard missed the first two games of the Western Conference finals and mostly struggled upon his return. He helped minimize the brutal turnover issues during his absence, where Stephon Castle coughed the ball up a whopping 20 times as he assumed primary ballhandling duties. Once Fox returned, Castle had 34 assists to 12 turnovers over the remaining five games of the series. However, Fox had nine points on an inefficient 4-for-15 night in Game 5, followed by a five-point night on just 1 for 9 from the floor in Game 6. He had a nice Game 7 where he scored 15 points and knocked down big shots as the Spurs held off the Thunder, but he’s yet to have an explosive game offensively since he returned, which is certainly understandable as he plays through a high ankle sprain. He’s certainly capable of that, though, and he could become the primary beneficiary of the Knicks’ defensive pressure on Wembanyama.

Spurs guard De’Aaron Fox drives to the basket against Pistons guard Cade Cunningham. — Spurs guard De’Aaron Fox missed two games in the Western Conference finals and needs to be at his best in the NBA Finals. | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

McKeone: Mikal Bridges. It won’t be the toughest defensive series of his career but he always has to work hard on that end to execute the different ways the Knicks scheme to keep Brunson out of the action. It’s on the other end where he can make his biggest difference, though. Bridges was horrific to begin the playoffs offensively, cratering in New York’s disastrous Game 3 loss to the Hawks with a fat donut in the scoring column. It got bad enough that he was effectively benched for Game 4 and didn’t hit the 30-minute mark again until Game 2 of the following series. If that version of Bridges shows up for the Finals, the Knicks are in trouble; they don’t rely on him to score 20 each night but he can’t be a complete nonfactor or the Spurs will completely ignore him. However, the wing enters the Finals with momentum after putting together a very efficient scoring run over the last two rounds. If Bridges can make his shots and occasionally create against a scrambling San Antonio defense, he’ll be a valuable piece. But if offensive woes strike again, it won’t be long before Bridges is unplayable and the Knicks don’t have much wing depth behind him.

Phillips: Josh Hart. Hart is known for his intensity and versatility on the defensive end, and as one of the best rebounding guards in the NBA. What he isn’t known for is scoring. Teams facing the Knicks have to pick someone to sag off of to help cover the rest of the starting lineup’s scorers. That often leaves the 31-year-old with plenty of scoring opportunities. When he cashes in, New York is virtually unstoppable. We saw that in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference finals when he poured in 26 points, and the Cavs were helpless to stop him. He shot 41.3% from three-point range this season, and if he duplicates that in the Finals, the Spurs will be in trouble. If he can’t take advantage of his opportunities, San Antonio will gain a massive advantage defensively.

Lyons: Stephon Castle—primarily on the defensive end. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a tremendous Game 7 of the Western Conference finals, but really struggled through the series as a whole, shooting 40.9% from the field and 28.6% from three. Now, he turns his sights to Brunson, a similarly difficult but very different player to defend. On paper, Castle has some significant advantages in that matchup—with around four inches and 25 pounds on the Knicks’ superstar. New York has proven it can win in a variety of ways through the postseason, with Brunson acting as both the tip of the spear and a distributor. The most straightforward is with the star guard going off for 30-plus per night, of course, and the Spurs would love to force the ball out of his hands and for the Knicks to have to get more creative on offense. That begins with Castle.

Will the Knicks or the Spurs come out on top? And in how many games?

Mannix: Spurs in 6. Maybe five. I think the Spurs are going to be sharp early. The Western Conference finals were exhausting, but San Antonio will have three full days to rest before opening the Finals at home, while the Knicks will have been off for more than a week. I think the Spurs’ backcourt will do a credible job making Brunson inefficient and Wembanyama will be the dominant force on both ends by a country mile. A new Spurs dynasty will officially be born.

Silverman: Spurs in seven. The Knicks’ dominance in their run through the Eastern Conference is for real, and I think it will carry to a degree against a much tougher opponent in the Spurs. The Knicks’ wing trio of Anunoby, Hart and Bridges can muck games up out of the gate, but Mitchell Robinson’s availability after he broke his right pinky finger impacts New York’s ability to defend Wembanyama. There may be a Hartenstein-sized hole left in the Knicks defensively, although Robinson could do a formidable job if he’s available. Or, at least, he could run through his allotted fouls to minimize some looks near the rim. At the end of the day, though, I lean toward the team with the best player on the court. And that’s certainly Wembanyama in this series no matter how big of a heater Brunson is on. If the series goes the distance, Wemby’s dominance and the home crowd give San Antonio the advantage even if Knicks fans travel in droves.

McKeone: Knicks in seven. The power of friendship has lifted teams to great heights before. But the main reason I’m confident in New York is Mike Brown. The Knicks’ coach has put on a master class adjusting and counter-adjusting to whatever the opponent is trying to do out there on the floor. He cannot cook up any sort of cure-all for Wemby, of course, but his roster is uniquely equipped to take him out of rhythm on both ends. If that proves to be the case, New York has the offensive weapons to pick apart a quality Spurs defense. And of those offensive weapons, Brunson feels like he’s in for a huge series. The All-Star point guard is as rested as possible between the sweeps and the lighter offensive load he carried through the first three rounds. If he can star in the way we know he can and Brown can find value on the margins, the Knicks can overcome the enormous talent gap Wembanyama represents—and as this is New York, home of the greatest shows on the planet, of course it’s going to go a full seven games. It’ll be amazing theater and the orange and blue will hang a banner as Manhattan burns around them (probably not on that last point, but also … maybe).

Knicks head coach Mike Brown speaks with the media. — Knicks head coach Mike Brown put on a master class this season in making adjustments. | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Phillips: Knicks in six. Wembanyama and the Spurs have been a joy to watch this postseason, but I think the run comes to an end in the Finals. We saw how they struggled when the Thunder were physical with them early in the Western Conference finals, and the Knicks are even tougher. New York’s perimeter defense will make it very tough on San Antonio’s young guards. The Spurs are a dynasty in the making. They arrived a year early and I think that will show in this series. The Knicks have the experience edge and it will carry them through. Spike Lee, Timothée Chalamet and Ben Stiller will witness history at MSG in Game 6.

Lyons: Spurs in seven. I think we’re in for a treat. The Knicks will have a significant edge in rest, they will certainly believe that they can go toe to toe with San Antonio, and they have the depth to match them. But ultimately this is a superstar’s game, and I believe we’re in for a true Wembanyama coronation. It has been a thrill to watch this young Spurs team grow in real time, not just over the course of the season, but even just this last series with the Thunder. And if they can pass that test with a pair of wins in Oklahoma City, they’re ready for the bright lights of MSG when they have the clear best player on the floor.

Who will be the NBA Finals MVP?

Mannix: Wembanyama. We’re in the Wemby Era now, and teams are going to have to start building rosters accordingly.

Silverman: Wembanyama. If the Spurs become this year’s NBA champions, there’s no other choice. He seemed to take Gilgeous-Alexander’s MVP trophy presentation personally as he watched on ahead of Game 1 in the Western Conference finals. A Finals MVP award and the Larry O’Brien Trophy would certainly be a nice consolation prize.

Spurs forward Victor Wembanyama. — Victor Wembanyama is the best player in this series and is the favorite to win Finals MVP if the Spurs win the title. | Dustin Safranek-Imagn Images

McKeone: Anunoby. We’ve gone a few years without an Andre Iguodala type taking home Finals MVP and Anunoby is the perfect heir to that throne. Moreover, the Knicks only have a chance if he can guard Wembanyama effectively. Nobody can stop the Spurs’ superstar, but all the ways Anunoby can make his life difficult will be very obvious to the viewer. Pair that with the steady offense the elite defender has provided this playoffs and he’ll be crowned Finals MVP, as well as the first “Wemby stopper” of the NBA.

Phillips: I’m picking the Knicks, so it won’t be Wembanyama? I think there’s no doubt he’ll be the best player in the series and also put up the best numbers. With the way he’s performing on both ends, he could absolutely take home the trophy even if the Spurs lose. The NBA has only done that once, as Jerry West won for the losing Lakers in 1969. I don’t think it’ll happen again. If the Knicks win it, Brunson will be the guy. He’s New York’s leader, and he elevates his game at Madison Square Garden, where this series will be won. It’s a bit ironic that one of the shortest players in the series will swipe MVP from the tallest.

Lyons: Wembanyama. He’ll need help, as he did in the Western Conference finals with big games from guys like Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson and Julian Champagnie, but if I’m locked in on the Spurs, it is difficult to see anyone else taking home Finals MVP. If Wembanyama isn’t the Spurs’ best player, the likelihood is that the Knicks are going to be raising a banner.

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