The Likely Length of a Memphis Grizzlies Rebuild

The Memphis Grizzlies are in the early stages of rebuilding a contender. Pulling off the band-aid is difficult and painful, but going in this direction was the right thing to do because the team was not good enough to win a title.

So it begs the question, how long will it take?

Notably, the San Antonio Spurs missed the playoffs six straight years and selected their three best pieces in the last three drafts. The defending champions in Oklahoma City missed three straight after making it in the Orlando bubble in 2020. And the Utah Jazz were in the fourth year of rebuilding before getting desperate and making a trade for Jaren Jackson Jr. in February, and they tanked the rest of this season. Who knows how long it will really take for them?

Luckily for the Grizzlies, they have quality assets in future draft picks and in Cedric Coward, Zach Edey, Walter Clayton, Jaylen Wells (despite the down shooting year) and GG Jackson II. There’s a good blend of athleticism, size, defensive potential and outside shooting there which should create a nice nucleus.

Of that group, Edey and Coward have the highest ceilings. The team will need them to blossom on time for the rebuild to go according to plan. That means their promising big man has to add more weapons next to his jump hook out of the post since rim rolls won’t always be an option, and Coward has to get stronger while improving his 3-point shot.

They could possibly have two lottery picks, depending on if the Orlando Magic lose in the Play-In Tournament. This is a loaded draft and they can possibly select two instant contributors. Still, they could get even get great value into the late teens with Orlando’s pick this year.

At this time, the team has a 29 percent chance of landing in the top four and a six percent chance of winning the lottery. It’s hard to tell which of the top prospects between AJ Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer, Darryn Peterson or Caleb Wilson, will have the best career, but in the event that the Grizzlies pick in the top four and somehow take the best one, it could significantly speed up the timeline.

The Morant Factor

It also helps that Ja Morant is around and wants to be. Development could go a lot smoother for the prospects because he puts them in a favorable spots after generating so much attention. Morant is in his prime and could still be in it in a few years if he rewrites the narrative on his health and improves his outside game.

With him in top form, like he showed in nine of the 20 games he played this year, they could maybe be a Play-In Tournament team as early as next season.

Another thing they would need to get right for the rebuild to go well is handling extensions properly. For perspective, look at the Tyler Herro and Nikola Jović examples from the Miami Heat.

They valued Tyler Herro too highly when extending him the first time, which made him an unattracive asset in negotiations becasue he doesn't guard effectively, and they overpaid Jović based on potential when he had shown more bad than good, making him untradeable. It would be a disaster for the Grizzlies if they committed as much money as the Heat did those two for players who can't be one of the five to close a game.

In the meantime, this process is slow, ugly and not for the weak. But big picture: it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Grizzlies are back in the playoffs as a real threat by 2028 and 2029.