Projecting a Grizzlies Win Total for First Season Post-Morant

The Memphis Grizzlies have officially begun their rebuild. Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Desmond Bane are all gone, ushering in a new era of Grizzlies basketball.

But this new era does not mean that the Grizzlies are going to be a terrible basketball team, regardless of how young they are, and how their past seasons have gone.

Even after moving on from their franchise players, they have a strong core. Cedric Coward, Zach Edey, (health concerns) Jaylen Wells, and newly acquired Cameron Boozer, is a strong strong start. Then you talk about the few veterans they do have to round out the roster.

So, what is a reasonable projection for this seasons Memphis Grizzlies? I'll say it's above the 23.5 set by most sportsbook.

Cedric Coward led the way for Memphis in their NBA Summer League Semifinals win yesterday!

🐻 28 PTS (19 in 2H, game-high)
🐻 6 REB
🐻 5 AST
🐻 4 3PM

The @memgrizz will face the Warriors TONIGHT in the Championship game at 9:00pm/et on ESPN!pic.twitter.com/INPfQcFxpq
— NBA (@NBA) July 19, 2026

Last season the Grizzlies won 25 games, were surrounded by rumors, and dealt with countless injuries. Ja Morant played in only 20 games, Edey 11, Ty Jerome 15, Santi Aldama 43, and only two players met 65 games (Cam Spencer 72, Jaylen Wells 69).

This season, they will be able to have more continuity and will have less of a revolving door in their lineup, instantly raising their floor.

We start with Cedric Coward, who averaged 13 points and nearly 6 boards. Coward has been putting on a show in this years Summer League, proving he is quite honestly above the talent he is playing against. He is poised to make that second year jump, especially when getting to play alongside Cameron Boozer, the two have flourished in the Summer League.

Boozer has averaged 18.4 Points - 8 Rebounds - 3.6 Assists - 1.8 Steals, in his Summer League action so far this season and this is a fair expectation to what he will bring to the NBA level, alongside Wells, Edey, and Coward.

Beyond the main core, the emergence of GG Jackson last season was promising, Cam Spencer provides scoring off the bench, Taylor Hendricks has been strong in the Summer League, and I haven't even mentioned Santi Aldama.

An eager, young and hungry team, that gets the chance to play under Tuomas Iisalo will win more than 24 games and I believe a fair projection is around 27.5.

The Grizzlies won't be competing for a playoff berth this season, but they also aren't the league's worst roster. If Coward, Wells, Boozer, and Edey continue their development while Memphis stays healthier than it did a year ago, clearing 23.5 wins should be well within reach.

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