Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat: ESPN Experts Make Their Picks For Tonight's NBA Play-In Tournament Matchup

It is win or go home for the Atlanta Hawks and the Miami Heat tonight at State Farm Arena. In the final play-in game in the Eastern Conference, the two Southeast Division rivals will square off for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference and a first round matchup with the Cleveland Cavaliers.

This is going to be the fifth matchup of the season between the Hawks and the Heat. Three of the four matchups have taken place since the Heat made the move to trade Jimmy Butler and the Heat are 2-1 in those games. Will this game be any different?

Ahead of the game tonight, seven ESPN NBA experts made their picks for the game tonight and five of them picked Miami to defeat the Hawks and advance to the playoffs.

Chris Herring: Heat

Bobby Marks: Heat

Kevin Pelton: Hawks

Jorge Sedano: Heat

Marc J. Spears: Heat

Tim MacMahon: Heat

Jeremy Woo: Hawks

Final tally: Heat 5, Hawks 2

Our own Rohan Raman gave an in-depth preview for ton

"In the regular season, the Hawks finished 5th in the NBA in PPG, 14th in FG%, 15th in 3PA, 18th in 3P%, 2nd in FTA, 26th in turnovers, and 14th in rebounding. Per Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta is 14th in points per 100 possessions, 15th in effective field goal percentage, 22nd in turnover percentage, 11th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 7th in free throw rate.

The Hawks ranked 27th in PPG allowed, 28th in field goal percentage allowed, 16th in three-point attempts allowed, and 28th in three-point percentage allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta is 19th in points allowed per 100 possessions and 28th in effective field goal percentage allowed.

The Heat finished 24th in the NBA in PPG, 18th in FG%, 16th in 3PA, 12th in 3P%, 27th in FTA, 8th in turnovers, and 21st in rebounding. Per Cleaning the Glass, Miami is 21st in points per 100 possessions, 18th in effective field goal percentage, 9th in turnover percentage, 27th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 22nd in free throw rate.

As usual, Miami's defense is comfortably one of the better units in the league. They ranked 7th in PPG allowed, 12th in field goal percentage allowed, 17th in three-point attempts allowed, and 14th in three-point percentage allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Heat finished 9th in points allowed per 100 possessions and 18th in effective field goal percentage allowed

In 2024-25, Miami's offense usually goes as Tyler Herro does. As of late, that's been a really good thing for Miami. The All-Star guard fared well against the Hawks despite drawing Dyson Daniels in coverage for most of the game. He averaged 24.8 points and 6.8 assists to three turnovers on 47.8/40/92% splits. The Hawks did hold him to 11 points in their Feb. 24 win over the Heat, but that game also came amidst the Heat's worst losing streak of the year. More recently, he torched them for 36 points on 13-17 shooting from the field. Herro is coming off a 38 point effort against the Bulls where he went 13-19 from the field. He's playing some of his best basketball of the year and Daniels is going to have a tough time slowing him down.

Miami Heat PG Tyler Herr — Apr 16, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Miami Heat guard Tyler Herro (14) goes up for a dunk on Chicago Bulls forward Talen Horton-Tucker (22) during the second half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | David Banks-Imagn Images

The Heat always focus a ton of defensive attention towards Trae Young and this game will be no different. In his first three games against Miami, Young finished with a combined 39 points on 11-29 shooting and six turnovers. He was better in his most recent game, with 29 points on 10-21 attempts, but the efficiency and scoring just haven't been there for Young as they are against some of his other opponents. They will likely throw a combination of Davion Mitchell and Herro at Young, but Mitchell will be the primary matchup on Trae. He's done well in that role, holding Young to a measly 14.1 points and 8.3 assists on 47.2 TS% in 195 possessions. Expect an inefficient game from Young where his teammates will need to force Miami to draw attention away from him.

Mar 27, 2025; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Heat center Kel'el Ware (7) defends Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young (11) during the fist half at Kaseya Center. Mandatory Credit: Rhona Wise-Imagn Images / Rhona Wise-Imagn Images

This Heat team plays with a ton of discipline - they're 8th in turnovers - while also playing a suffocating brand of defense. While the Hawks play with a ton of pace (3rd in the NBA), the Heat are slow and methodical (27th in the NBA). They concede the sixth-fewest second chance points and they finished 14th in opponent points in the paint. Finishing in the paint has been a strength for the Hawks' offense - they finished 3rd in the regular season for points in the paint. The battle between Onyeka Okongwu and Ke'el Ware/Bam Adebayo is going to be especially interesting to watch in this regard. Adebayo hasn't had his best season, but he's still one of the most switchable defenders in basketball with tons of postseason experience. Ware has been a revelation for the Heat this year - the rookie center has consistently been a presence in the paint while also occassionally stretching the floor due to his three-point shooting. This is a dangerous duo to watch for and the Hawks are already a small team. Okongwu and Mo Gueye are both good defenders and it'll be important for them to show that tonight.

In terms of Miami's other players, Duncan Robinson is having another good season as the Heat's go-to shooter. He's nailing 39.3% of his 6.5 attempts per game. Andrew Wiggins struggled to adjust at the start of his Heat tenure, but he's rounded into form as a third scoring option who can still bring something on the defensive end. Haywood Highsmith is capable of giving the Heat good two-way minutes at times.

Against Orlando, every member of the Hawks lineup not named Trae Young could have been much better. Zacccharie Risacher was 2-10 from the field and scored seven points. Onyeka Okongwu had 11 points and nine rebounds, and Dyson Daniels scored seven points. Caris LeVert had seven points on 3-11 shooting. Georges Niang had 15 points, and Dominick Barlow, Terance Mann, and Vit Krejci combined for eight points. The Orlando bench outscored the Hawks' bench 57-30. Expect a top three of LeVert, Niang, and Mann off the bench tonight. Those three, along with Risacher, need to have better games for Atlanta to advance.

Miami is going to be a tough challenge, but the Hawks are capable of meeting it. They will need to play the best brand of team basketball of their season and the stakes are simple. Win and in - or lose and go home."

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