Evaluating Every Scenario for Jonathan Kuminga and the Hawks This Offseason

I did not think that Jonathan Kuminga would still be a free agent by the time the NBA schedule release began, but here we are. Kuminga is arguably the top unrestricted free agent available, and where he decides to sign and for what amount of money could have an impact on the Atlanta Hawks, as it could involve them in a sign-and-trade.

The Lakers, Clippers, Bucks, Cavaliers, and Timberwolves have been discussed as teams interested in Kuminga, while a return to the Hawks has yet to be ruled out as well.

Let's look at the scenarios for Kuminga.

1. Kuminga takes a big pay-cut on a "prove it" type deal to sign elsewhere

This is the scenario that would not land the Hawks anything via sign-and-trade. The reason a sign-and-trade with teams like the Lakers and Cavaliers has been mentioned is that that is the only way those teams could acquire Kuminga and pay him the type of contract that he desires.

But what if Kuminga, who wants a large role on a team, changes his mind and decides that he is willing to play for less than he thinks he is worth on a one-year type of deal and then show he is worth more and hit free agency again next summer?

The Timberwolves emerged recently as a team interested in Kuminga, but could only offer $6.5 million for the season, barring a sign-and-trade. The Lakers don't have much financial space to work with after their spending spree this season, the Bucks and Clippers are expected to be among the worst teams in the league, and the Cavaliers are also not in a great financial situation, even before they sign James Harden to a new contract.

The Lakers and Wolves could be the ones to watch in this scenario, as they both need starting power forwards. Kuminga would likely be in a bench role with Atlanta or Cleveland, unless the Cavaliers traded Jarrett Allen and moved Evan Mobley to center.

The longer this goes on, the option is there for Kuminga to take less and play a huge role on two teams hoping to make noise in the playoffs.

2. Kuminga re-signs with the Hawks

The Hawks have some roster crunch problems they have to currently solve, but if Kuminga wanted to come back to the Hawks on a favorable deal, Atlanta's front office is not going to say no, even if he is just a bench player for the Hawks, as he was towards the end of the season.

For Atlanta to sign Kuminga, they would have to move at least three players before the season begins. Kuminga would put them at 18 players on their roster and the regular season roster limit is 15.

I think this would come down to money. If the Hawks offered more money to Kuminga than the Wolves, Lakers, or Cavaliers, would he take that over having a likely starting role or bigger role with the other teams? That is not to say that he would not have a key role with Atlanta off the bench, but he won't be starting and with guys like Lu Dort and Aaron Wiggins on the team, he is not as valuable.

3. Hawks execute a sign-and-trade with any team interested in Kuminga

If a team wants Kuminga badly enough and is willing to pay him the kind of contract he wants, plus puts together a trade package attractive enough for Atlanta, though could happen.

Nailing down what the Hawks would get back in a sign-and-trade with any of these teams is difficult. It could be as little as some second round picks, it could be players (complicating their roster crunch), or the Hawks may try and create a decent sized trade exception. The one thing the Hawks don't want to do is take back bad salary, such as Lakers forward Jarred Vanderbilt, and Atlanta is not going to agree to a sign-and-trade unless they benefit.

If the Hawks roped in multiple teams, they could use a sign-and-trade to offload some of their current players they are hoping to move to solve their roster problems

Bottom line

This situation could continue to drag on for quite a while depending on a couple of things.

If Kuminga is wanting a contract around the $20 million annual range, a sign-and-trade is the only avenue in which he can be acquired. Can any team put together a package that the Hawks like? If the Hawks don't like any offers, Kuminga may not be able to land where he wants unless he takes a big pay cut for a season.

The Lakers and Cavaliers still seem like the most likely landing spots for Kuminga, likely by way of sign-and-trade. The Wolves could be a darkhorse if he wants to take a pay cut, as I don't believe Minnesota will want to acquire him via sign-and-trade, and they are the closest of these teams to getting to the NBA Finals. If Kuminga wants a large role on a bad team to show what he can do, perhaps the Clippers or Bucks get more involved. Maybe he ends up back in Atlanta, as unlikely as that seems right now.

At some point this offseason, we will finally have an answer.

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