Atlanta Hawks vs Memphis Grizzlies: Final Score Predictions For Tonight's Game

After two days off, the Atlanta Hawks are back on the court. Atlanta is on the road tonight to face one of the best teams in the Western Conference, the Memphis Grizzlies. Memphis comes into this game as the No. 4 seed in the West, but they are in the hunt to be the No. 2 seed. Memphis is competing with the Lakers, Nuggets, and Rockets for that spot and every game counts.

Atlanta is trying to keep pace in the Eastern Conference play-in race. The Hawks enter this game as the No. 9 seed in the East, one game behind Orlando for the No. 8 seed and 1.5 games behind Miami for No. 7. The Hawks are battling through injuries right now and hoping they can turn things around in this final full month of the season.

Our own Rohan Raman gave an in-depth preview for tonight's game:

"Coming into tonight's game, the Hawks are 8th in the NBA in PPG, 15th in FG%, 15th in 3PA, 19th in 3P%, 2nd in FTA, 26th in turnovers, and 11th in rebounding. Per Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta is 19th in points per 100 possessions, 19th in effective field goal percentage, 21st in turnover percentage, 14th in offensive rebounding percentage, and 4th in free throw rate.

Currently, the Hawks rank 27th in PPG allowed, 29th in field goal percentage allowed, 18th in three-point attempts allowed, and 28th in three-point percentage allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta is 18th in points allowed per 100 possessions and 28th in effective field goal percentage allowed.

Despite their recent struggles as of late, the Grizzlies are still one of the best offenses in basketball. They are 1st in the NBA in PPG, 5th in FG%, 14th in 3PA, 11th in 3P%, 1st in FTA, 29th in turnovers, and 2nd in rebounding. Per Cleaning the Glass, Memphis is 6th in points per 100 possessions, 9th in effective field goal percentage, 25th in turnover percentage, 2nd in offensive rebounding percentage, and 6th in free throw rate.

However, their defense is more exploitable. The Grizzlies rank 25th in PPG allowed, 27th in field goal percentage allowed, 27th in three-point attempts allowed, and 9th in three-point percentage allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, Memphis is 8th in points allowed per 100 possessions and 4th in effective field goal percentage allowed.

The advanced metrics paint a pretty favorable picture of the Grizzlies' defense, but their defensive effort and overall cohesiveness has been lacking as of late. In the Spurs game, they gave up 46 points in the second quarter and let San Antonio take a 19-point lead. They eventually got it back to a one-possession team, but it's worth noting that Memphis has an inconsistent defense at the moment. That could be good news for Trae Young, who has really struggled as a scorer as of late. He hasn't eclipsed 20 points in his last three games and the Hawks desperately rely on him to have a consistent 20+ points and 8-12 assists a night. His scoring is only going to be more important with the absence of Georges Niang. Niang's ability to put up threes and space the floor is vital towards generating good offensive possessions for Atlanta. Without him, it falls on an already-overtaxed Young to do even more. He'll have a tough matchup against promising rookie Jaylen Wells, but this is a game that will be very difficult to win without a fantastic Trae Young game.

Onyeka Okongwu had a productive outing against a difficult matchup in OKC. His 23 points and 13 rebounds led Atlanta in both categories while he held his own against both Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein. His matchup against Grizzlies forward Jaren Jackson Jr. is going to be even tougher. The All-Star forward is fresh off a 42-point performance amidst a career season. He's averaging 23.1 points, 5.9 rebounds and 3.0 stocks on 49.7/36.5/77.2 shooting splits. On defense, he's currently the frontrunner for DPOY and is anchoring Memphis's paint defense. He isn't a stellar rebounder, but he's going to be a tough matchup for Okongwu and whoever Atlanta goes with at PF in Niang's absence. It's likely going to be up to some combination of Mo Gueye, Dominick Barlow and Okongwu to slow JJJ down, which is a hefty task to accomplish.

Speaking of Barlow and Gueye, both are likely to see elevated roles tonight and it's going to be interesting to see how head coach Quin Snyder chooses to rotate them. Barlow just signed a two-year deal with Atlanta, so there's a chance he gets more run in this one than Gueye. However, Gueye has been named a starter in the past few games. Both are developmental prospects with potential, but it's going to be hard for them to matchup with the Grizzlies' size. JJJ, Zach Edey and Santi Aldama are all capable of overwhelming this frontcourt and it'll be important for both players to stay disciplined on both ends of the court.

On the perimeter, it is still unclear if Memphis is going to have Ja Morant. If Morant sits, expect Dyson Daniels to take on the defensive assignment for Desmond Bane and Scotty Pippen Jr. Bane is making his return to the lineup after a one-game absence and that will be incredibly helpful for the Grizzlies' spacing. Pippen Jr has etched a role out in Memphis's rotation as a solid backup point guard who averages 9 points and 4.2 assists per game this season. Given that the Grizzlies already have a lot of turnovers, this could be a big game for Daniels to rack up steals and get the Hawks out in transition.

Caris LeVert and Terence Mann are also going to be pressed into bigger roles and that could be a good look for the Hawks if they need some offense. Although it's a small sample size, the three-man combination of Young, LeVert and Mann have an excellent 120.9 offensive rating and a 3.9 net rating. Conversely, the three-man grouping of Young, Mann and Daniels have an elite 80.2 defensive rating. The Hawks are going to have to get stops on defense in order to win this game, and part of that might involve a heavy dose of Mann and Daniels. LeVert will need to carry a significant burden as the sixth man and offensive spark without Niang."

Odds

According to Fanduel Sportsbook, Memphis is a 9 point favorite tonight and the over/under is set at 253.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Prediction

The Hawks are going to face a big challenge tonight from the Grizzlies, even if Morant does not play. Atlanta has not been playing well since the All-Star Break and without Niang, they are going to be down an important player on the offensive end. Both Gueye and Barlow have had their moments this season on both ends of the floor, but struggle with inconsistency. That is going to be a key story to watch in tonight's game, as well as the Hawks defense, which has gotten lit up by the Heat and Thunder in the last two games. Anything can happen, but the Grizzlies get the win at home.

Final Score: Grizzlies 123, Hawks 117

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