What the Miami Heat offense will look like

There’s a version of this Heat team that doesn’t work.

Giannis Antetokounmpo shot 33.3 percent from three last season, and he took them at a rate that ranked in the bottom three percent of the league while Bam Adebayo shot 31.8 percent. Put those two on the floor together and you have, on paper, the exact frontcourt that the modern NBA was designed to punish. Two men who occupy the same real estate, neither of whom scares a defense from beyond the arc, has been every skeptic’s argument about this roster not succeeding.

It’s the reason I’ve spent most of August with film open on one screen and play-type data on the other, because I don’t think the answer is that Miami is ignorant to this potentially being a problem. I think the answer will be something that Erik Spoelstra will build, and he’s about to get the personnel he’s never had. Here’s what I think this actually looks like.

Let’s start with a number that reframes the entire spacing conversation: 69 percent of Giannis’s assists last season went to three-point shooters, and his career mark is 52 percent. That would be third-highest in the modern record books.

Giannis doesn’t provide spacing in the traditional sense by provide elite shooting, but he sure does create it. He bends the floor in a way that allows those around him to get clean looks from the perimeter consistently. The play-type data says he spends only about 7% of his offensive possessions in spacing situations, and 39% percent in creation which is the highest creation frequency of anyone on this current roster by a wide margin. Just last season he had 18 assists in a game, and many of those looks were open threes.

Giannis Antetokounmpo 18 assists pic.twitter.com/2gipnJxHLg
— Brett Usher (@UsherNBA) November 15, 2025

So the design question of what can Miami do schematically to space the floor isn’t as much of a concern in my view as much as how to arrange four other bodies to punish what he does to a defense. Miami spent all of July answering that: they brought back Andrew Wiggins off a career shooting year, signed veteran Tim Hardaway Jr. who made more threes off the bench than anyone in basketball and is 19th all-time.

They also re-signed Simone Fontecchio who’s an above average shooter, rookie Ryan Conwell, and Bobby Portis coming off a 45.6 percent three-point season. Is there a shooter that strikes absolute terror to defenses? Not necessarily. But that’s enough of a roster built to feast in the exact windows Giannis creates.

The common assumption is that Bam has to become a three-point shooter for this to work. I don’t think that’s it at all. Let’s look at how he was actually used last season. Spacing was his single most frequent play type at 36 percent of his possessions, and the efficiency on it was slightly negative. He was already being asked to stand out there, and it took him a bit to get comfortable with the new offense that Coach Spoelstra implemented.

His real value is somewhere else entirely, and the numbers show it clearly. His assists generated an effective field goal percentage of 88.0 — meaning when Bam passes, the resulting shot is an excellent one. He’s also one of the best short-roll decision-makers of his generation.

So the version of this frontcourt I expect isn’t Bam parked in the corner while Giannis drives all game. I can definitely see them bringing back some elements of the fast-paced offense that they ran last season. But I also expect there to be pockets in the game where they have Bam operating at the elbow and the nail at times as a hub, with Giannis attacking from the wing or the dunker spot, and the two of them essentially taking turns being the hammer.

MIA Heat - Pistol 5/Wide Post Split Stagger

Wide screen for Bam Adebayo to get an elbow catch.
Split stagger action where Jovic and Herro screen for Pelle Larson.
Larson curls and gets the layup.

Spoelstra's use of the wide action is a great way to get into Pistol 5. pic.twitter.com/E9tkOdecPQ
— Evin Gualberto (@evin_gual) November 19, 2024

Hey look it's the Miami Heat mixing in more pick and roll, getting it to Bam Adebayo on a short roll, forcing more help and getting a 3 out of it. pic.twitter.com/0ttPF88Jiz
— Steve Jones (@stevejones20) January 14, 2026

The Bam-Giannis two-man game is a coverage that should scare people. Blitz Giannis, and the ball goes to one the best short-roll passers in the sport with a numbers advantage. Drop, and Giannis gets a runway. Switch, and one of them has a mismatch. There isn’t a clean answer, which is the whole point of building it this way.

The action I’d bet on? The Early Drag

If I had to guess at the signature play of this Miami team, it wouldn’t be a half-court set at all. Miami played the fastest pace in the league last season and led the NBA in raw transition points at 32.2 per game while ranking 23rd in transition efficiency and second-to-last in transition field goal percentage. They ran constantly and it produced very little, because they didn’t have anyone who could actually punish a scrambled defense. They do now. And the action that unlocks it is the early drag screen. Early Drag is essentially a ball screen set in the first 6 seconds, before the defense has set its matchups.

Solid early offense from Miami.

Terry initiates a pistol action w/ Tyler —> flows into a double drag-esque action w/ Bam, who slips.

The spacing/timing is kinda funky w/ Caleb displacement one pass away, but I still like how Herro navigates Franz’s stunt/Wendell in drop. pic.twitter.com/52kim90mCp
— Matt Hanifan (@mph_824_) February 7, 2024

Now picture it with this personnel. Davion Mitchell or Larsson pushes off a rebound, Giannis trails as the screener, and the defense has to decide in half a second whether to switch a guard onto a 6’11” freight train or send help and leave a shooter. Or they can invert it to where Giannis grabs the rebound himself and pushes, with Bam running the second lane.

Wiggins converted transition possessions at 1.22 points per possession last season, in the 67th percentile and he can finish what those two start.

The larger point is that transition is the one environment where the two-big spacing question simply doesn’t apply. There is no set defense to space against. That’s why I think Miami’s identity next season is going to be built on the first 8-10 seconds, and why the defense matters so much offensively.

There will be possessions probably in April, and against a switching defense with a good scheme — where Miami puts the ball in Giannis’s hands. The paint will be full, and there isn’t a clean answer. That’s a real thing that will happen, and it’s why I’ve written that although I feel that this team can contend with anyone, they are probably one shot-maker away from being genuinely complete. But the argument that this frontcourt can’t function is built on a misunderstanding of what Giannis is. He’s a defense-bending force whose entire offensive identity is manufacturing advantages for other people.

Since the days of the Big 3 Heat teams, Spoelstra has run handoff ecosystems, elbow hubs, zone looks on defense that slow the game down and transition attacks, mostly without a single player who could break a defense on his own at an All-NBA level.

He has one now.

I’m more curious about what he does with it than about anything else in basketball this season.

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