Best and Worst Case Scenarios for the Utah Jazz This Season

One of these outcomes would be pretty good for the Utah Jazz. The other? Not so much.

Apr 5, 2026; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Utah Jazz head coach Will Hardy walks down the court before the start of a game against the Oklahoma City Thunder during the first quarter at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Utah Jazz are heading into the 2026-27 season with much higher expectations than they've seen compared to their last four seasons.

They're looking to win games and compete rather than having eyes on the lottery. They have their most talented roster since head coach Will Hardy arrived in 2022, and if a few key pieces fall into place, are viewed as one of the few teams who could be a serious breakout candidate for the year ahead.

But what exactly would that best-case scenario be for the Jazz? How would Utah's season look if things didn't swing their way as expected, and ended up as their worst-case scenario?

Let's sort through what both of those outcomes might look like, and what might need to happen for those results to become a reality:

Best-Case: 46-36, First-Round Exit

Jan 30, 2026; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Utah Jazz guard Keyonte George (3) reacts after a three point basket against the Brooklyn Nets during the second half at Delta Center. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Jazz may have had a case to reach around the 50-win mark had they decided to keep Walker Kessler onboard this offseason. Instead, Utah wanted to look towards the future and traded him to the LA Lakers in exchange for future flexibility.

But even without Kessler, it feels like pieces are in place for the Jazz to have a 45-plus win season, which slots them in as a sixth or seventh seed in the Western Conference, and their best record since 2022.

Utah has two All-Star talents in the frontcourt, a third budding star in the backcourt in the form of Keyonte George, a pair of top-five picks from the last two years in Ace Bailey and Darryn Peterson, combined with a bench that banks on youth and a few defensive reinforcements from this offseason. 

The tools are there for the Jazz to not only reach far more than their 22-win mark from last season, but also be built for a ton of success in the regular season. They've got a young and deep rotation, have an already successful offensive system, play extremely well at home, and have nowhere to go but up defensively.

At the very least, it's a group that should reach .500 by the end of the season. But if this group connects early, and the young talent's development is ahead of schedule, 46 wins feels realistic. And even if unable to win a playoff series against a tough Western Conference team, this season would come out to be an overwhelming success compared to the last four years.

Worst-Case: 32-50, Miss Play-In

Mar 12, 2024; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Utah Jazz head coach Will Hardy reacts to a play against the Boston Celtics during the first quarter at Delta Center. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

This feels like an outcome that would be hard to believe for the Jazz, but it's one that we have to at least keep in the back of mind.

Let's not forget: the Jazz won 22 games last season. Sure, the franchise has been actively trying to tank and boost their draft lottery odds for four seasons now, but they haven't had a winning record since Will Hardy was hired in 2022.

So there's a chance that if the Jazz's development is slower than expected, their defense doesn't recover as anticipated, and the West proves to be a daunting task for this group to face, Utah could be one step behind their leap in the standings that many fans are hopeful of this season.

There's also the possibility of injuries creeping up within this Jazz starting lineup that could disrupt their plans to win a few more games. Lauri Markkanen has never played more than 68 games in his career, and if any availability questions arise on his end, then racking up more success in the win column could be tougher than expected.

With just 32 wins on the board through 82, that'd likely place the Jazz on the outside looking in for the play-in, possibly as the 11th or 12th seed in the West. And to add on top of that sour feeling, Utah doesn't have the rights to their first round pick in next year's draft.

A winning season will be huge for the Jazz to put together this season. But if they don't, they'd better hope their young talent already on the roster showed some real flashes across the year to inspire confidence moving forward.

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