Utah Jazz's Chances to Make Playoffs Aren't What Fans Think

The Utah Jazz are gearing up for a much better year in the 2026-27 season compared to what they've recently been accustomed to.

They'll be rolling out Jaren Jackson Jr. as a full-time part of their lineup. A top rookie, Darryn Peterson, who was added in the draft, can contribute to wins right away. Pair that with the development of Keyonte George and Ace Bailey, combined with Lauri Markkanen, and that makes up for a really unique core to compete in the Western Conference.

The Jazz also don't have possession of their first-round pick this season. That goes to the Memphis Grizzlies, so long as Utah finishes below the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Minnesota Timberwolves in the draft order. That means Utah has every incentive to win games this year.

But the Jazz's odds to actually go on a run to make the playoffs might not be as high as you would think, even with the drastic change in circumstances that they enter next season with.

Where Jazz's Odds Stand to Make the Playoffs

According to odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, the Jazz are far more likely to miss the playoffs than they are to make them.

The Jazz's odds to make the playoffs? +205.

Their odds to miss? -250.

That puts the Jazz as one of the 10 most likely teams to miss the cut for the playoffs this next season. Teams that rank ahead of Utah as more likely bets to make the playoffs include the Charlotte Hornets (+185), the Phoenix Suns (-120), and the Golden State Warriors (-140).

And really, for as intriguing a team the Jazz look like on paper, maybe the odds are warranted.

The Jazz haven't had a winning record to end the season in four years. Will Hardy, entering his fifth season at the helm as head coach, has never led this team to a winning record. Their best player, Lauri Markkanen, has never even played a playoff game. And their projected starting five has either played zero or one game with one another as a collective unit.

Feb 3, 2026; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Utah Jazz forward/center Lauri Markkanen (23) shoots the ball while Indiana Pacers guard Ben Sheppard (26) defends in the first half at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

There are reasons to doubt the Jazz. And if the young talent around this roster doesn't take a big step forward, maybe their chances of making the postseason are delayed to be next year as opposed to this season. The Western Conference still has a ton of talent to compete against.

But there are big differences in this year's Jazz team as opposed to last season. They're looking to win games, have no incentives to tank their own record, and have the most talented roster that Will Hardy has seen since coaching here.

The roster would certainly be a bit more talented if Walker Kessler were still onboard. But even without him, the Jazz have two All-Star caliber guys in the frontcourt, and three budding young stars in Keyonte George, Ace Bailey, and Darryn Peterson.

Hardy also has a proven track record of impressive player development, and has already shown flashes of being a great offensive head coach.

If he can coach this roster up to be ahead of schedule and take them to the heights of being a top-10 offense, there's certainly a chance for the Jazz to come out and surprise some people–– and maybe even overshoot Vegas's projections–– to put up their first winning, playoff-bound season since 2022.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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