Mavericks' postseason path revealed after loss to Grizzlies

There was still a little up in the air entering Sunday for the Mavericks.

Feb 10, 2025; Dallas, Texas, USA; Sacramento Kings forward DeMar DeRozan (10) looks to move to the basket past Dallas Mavericks guard Dante Exum (0) during the first quarter at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

The Dallas Mavericks already knew who they'd be playing in the Play-In Tournament on Wednesday evening: the Sacramento Kings. Where that game would be played and the rest of the path to making the playoffs was still undecided entering Sunday's final day of the regular season, though.

Dallas and Sacramento both entered the day with a 39-42 record, but the Kings owned the tiebreaker over the Mavs if it came down to it. The Mavs lost 132-97 to the Memphis Grizzlies, while the Kings beat the underwhelming Phoenix Suns 109-98, giving Sacramento the 9-seed and Dallas the 10. That means the Mavericks will have to win two road games to make the playoffs, starting in Sacramento on Wednesday night. But how does the rest of the path look?

READ MORE: Mavericks dominated by Grizzlies in final game of regular season, 132-97

Mar 3, 2025; Dallas, Texas, USA; Sacramento Kings guard Zach LaVine (8) drives to the basket past Dallas Mavericks guard Max Christie (00) during the second half at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Memphis was also locked into the Play-In Tournament entering the day, but they didn't know who they would be playing, as seeds 4-7 were all separated by a game. The results that mattered for this: the Minnesota Timberwolves beat the Utah Jazz, the Denver Nuggets beat the Houston Rockets, and the LA Clippers beat the Golden State Warriors in overtime, leaving the Grizzlies to face the Warriors on the road on Tuesday night.

If the Mavericks beat the Kings on Wednesday, they would face the loser of Memphis-Golden State on Friday on the road. The winner of that game would face the 68-win Oklahoma City Thunder in the playoffs.

Dallas hasn't done well against any of the teams in the Play-In, which will make their uphill battle a little steeper. In three games against Sacramento, the Kings won all three games with a total score differential of 35 points. In four games against Memphis, the Grizzlies won three with the score differential favoring the Grizzlies by 61 points. Even if you take out Sunday's demolition, it favors the Grizzlies by 26. And in four games against the Warriors, they actually split two apiece, but that last win came just before the All-Star Break with a healthy Kyrie Irving. Since the All-Star Break, the Warriors have been 20-7, speaking to how great they've been with Jimmy Butler.

Sacramento and Dallas will play at 9 p.m. CST on ESPN, and the Mavericks sat many of their best players on Sunday to give themselves a healthier chance of beating the Kings. Whether or not that'll pay off will depend on their effort on Wednesday.

READ MORE: Jason Kidd explains decision to rest key Mavericks with postseason seed on the line

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