A Way-Too-Early Look at the Nuggets' Playoff Chances for Next Season

The Denver Nuggets still have much work to do before they're able to consider their offseason work complete.

To this point, they only have 11 roster spots filled, don't have a verdict on their Peyton Watson or Spencer Jones situation as both remain in restricted free agency, and haven't made any big trades to shake up this roster from the way it was constructed at the end of last season.

Simply put, there's a lot that still has to unfold for the Nuggets before they get to opening night of the regular season in October. And in due time, those dominoes will fall.

But do the Nuggets–– as currently constructed–– have a good chance at making it back to the postseason for what would be ninth-straight appearance? And if they do, where might they stand in the Western Conference playoff picture?

Let's sort through a way-too-early look at what the Nuggets' playoff chances are looking like a little over three months away from the season getting started.

The Nuggets' Core Is Still In-Tact–– And So Are Their Playoff Chances

Whille the Nuggets have remained mostly quiet through their offseason thus far, that doesn't mean anyone should get carried away in assuming that Denver has completely lost their footing as a top-six seed in the Western Conference.

In reality, the Nuggets retaining their current core should only bolster their chances to stand their ground as a top-six seed in the conference.

The only players they've lost thus far that were rotational pieces have been Tim Hardaway Jr., Jonas Valanciunas, and maybe Bruce Brown–– we'll see what happens on that end. The jury is still out on Watson and Jones' future, but right now, Denver still holds their free agent rights.

Nov 24, 2025; Memphis, Tennessee, USA; Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray (27) reacts with Denver Nuggets guard Peyton Watson (8) during the third quarter against the Memphis Grizzlies at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

And while that turnover in the second half does tend to put a big question mark on Denver's depth, five of the seven players from last year's roster are still locked in for next season.

Two of those are All-NBA players in Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, and another two are high-level starters in Aaron Gordon and Cameron Johnson. We'll see how next season goes for Christian Braun.

That core alone is more than capable of making their way into a top-six seed in the West. Especially when considering not many teams around them have made a substantial leap forward from last year, it makes those chances of a similarly strong regular season campaign being on the horizon for Denver.

Who Still Sits Ahead of the Nuggets in the West?

The two easy teams to place ahead of Denver are the same pair of juggernauts that did so last season: the OKC Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs.

There's nothing that's given an indication that either will be falling off from that 60-plus win level this next season, and there's a good chance that they'll be even better this year than they were last time around.

But the Nuggets were the first in line behind them in the West last year with their 54 wins on the season. That's even with their excessive injuries around the rotation, and they still managed to post the number-one offense in the NBA.

Apr 20, 2026; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray (27), center Nikola Jokic (15) and forward Aaron Gordon (32) in the fourth quarter against the Minnesota Timberwolves during game two of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The fourth and fifth seeds— the LA Lakers and Houston Rockets— were separated from them by just two games, and the sixth-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves were trailing not too far behind with 49 wins.

Unless anyone envisions a big step forward from the Phoenix Suns or the Portland Trail Blazers, or even a massive leap from the budding Utah Jazz, those top six seeds still seem like they'll be right in the same spots next year, albeit with a potential change in their order. If anyone were to fall out of that top-six range, the Lakers would be the easy bet.

So when it comes to Denver, at the very least, they're still a top-six seed that avoids the play-in, even without a clearly defined bench. A floor as a top-five seed also seems like a believable outcome.

The Timberwolves' offseason moves could put them just narrowly ahead of Denver, and another year of development from this Rockets core might do the same. The presence of Jokic and Murray on the Nuggets, paired with better health, can also put them back in front as the number-three seed pretty reasonably.

Bottom Line

Therefore, as for their playoff chances, the Nuggets should have no worries right now, even with the uncertainty that lies ahead for their offseason. They had one of the best rosters and most potent offenses in the NBA last season, and that still looks like it'll be the case for the 2026-27 season.

Their Finals chances, though? That's a different conversation–– and might require a few more roster chances to truly inspire the confidence that the Nuggets can get back to the heights they were once at three years ago.

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