Why Peyton Watson’s Nuggets Breakout Is a Gift and Curse

Since the Denver Nuggets have been beaten and bruised by their multiple injuries of the first two months of the NBA regular season, it hasn't been without a few names around the roster stepping up in a big way to allow this group to stay afloat in the Western Conference.

One of those players to have taken the biggest jump in that time for Denver, though, has been none other than fourth-year wing Peyton Watson, who's vaulted into becoming one of the Nuggets' most pivotal wings this rotation has on both ends of the floor, and has had a career-best campaign in the process.

Watson is averaging a career-best 12.7 points per game, 4.7 rebounds, and 1.6 assists while shooting an efficient 51.3% from the field and 39.6% from three, while also being a high-impact and versatile contributor on the defensive end to fill the void left by those out of the lineup. In his past five games without Nikola Jokic, it's come with at least 20 points scored in each, and even a winning 3-2 record to pair with it.

WATSON ASCENDING: Peyton Watson has added a new dimension to the Denver Nuggets’ league-leading offense. A 23-year-old forward in his fourth season, Watson has scored at least 20 points in a career-high five straight games, highlighted by a 30-point performance with a… pic.twitter.com/3CL6yhTaxB
— NBA (@NBA) January 8, 2026

Needless to be said, this season has been impressive and unpredicted for Watson. For the Nuggets, he's stepped up in a major way at a critical time in their campaign, and things could get even better once this lineup is able to get back to full health, and most importantly, get their three-time MVP back.

However, there's one under-the-radar layer of Watson's ongoing breakout that might not play much of a factor in the current moment, but in six months’ time, could snowball into something that really hurts the Nuggets and the near-future of their roster: his pending restricted free agency.

Why Peyton Watson's Breakout Could Force Him Out of Denver

The reality of Watson's latest stretch to really put him on the map is that inevitably, teams around the league– and particularly those with excess money on the books this summer– are taking notice. And that's alarming when focusing on just how Denver will be able to retain their rising wing this offseason.

The bill really becomes due for the Nuggets this summer when looking at their projected cap space. In terms of annual values for their deals next season, for the starting lineup alone, Nikola Jokic is due $59 million, $50 million goes to Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon is owed over $31 million, and their duo of Christian Braun and Cam Johnson each are set to make over $21 million.

That's a total over $185 million on the books for just the Nuggets' starting five––already surpassing the league's projected cap maximum of $166 million, via Spotrac, just under $25 million away from hitting the NBA's first apron, and really starts putting Denver in a bind with not only how they can construct the remainder of their roster, but also, tackle the situation of Watson's impending free agency.

Jan 7, 2026; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Denver Nuggets guard Peyton Watson (8) drives to the basket while Boston Celtics forward Sam Hauser (30) defends during the second half at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images | Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images

The Nuggets do hold restricted free agent rights on Watson, meaning that whatever deal he accepts that's not from Denver, they still have the first chance to match that deal and bring him back. But, it still won't be a seamless manuever to pull off.

Denver has historically been hesitant to pay the NBA's luxury tax when building their roster, even championship-quality, and teams around the league with cap space may be happy to fork over that money for the two-way wing. He's only 23 years old, continuously getting better on both ends, and has proven that when he has an expanded opportunity on the floor, he's capable of being a quality rotational, and even starting-caliber guy at the NBA level.

Those guys don't hit the free agent market often, meaning that the Nuggets certainly won't be in a one-horse race to re-sign him. It could get competitive... and pricey.

There's still tons of time to play out before the Nuggets' pending RFA will have to make the big decision, and no matter how it plays out, he'll likely be set to get a much-deserved payday, whether that come from Denver or somewhere else.

Yet, it also acts as a reminder to those in the Nuggets' front office that sometimes signing your guys to a new deal earlier rather than later can pay off for you in the end. Because if you don't, there's a chance a mid-season breakout could really hurt your hopes of trying to keep them onboard for the long haul.

Why Peyton Watson's Breakout Could Force Him Out of Denver

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