Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: Three Bold Predictions for Star-Studded First-Round Series

For the third time in four years, Denver and Minnesota will meet in the postseason.

Anthony Edwards and Nikola Jokić have emerged as two of the NBA’s top players as their Timberwolves and Nuggets have sparked a rivalry in recent years. | Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

The NBA playoffs are here, and fans don’t need to wait long to get some tremendous basketball.

The first-round is littered with intriguing series. There are, of course, the Lakers and Rockets, helmed by their Hall of Fame-bound legendary forwards. Trae Young may no longer be involved, but the Knicks and Hawks have some real bad blood. And of course, the Nuggets and Timberwolves will renew a postseason rivalry for the third time in four years.

Minnesota has been to the Western Conference finals for two straight years, and while the 2025–26 season was trying, they have the talent, depth and playoff experience to be dangerous. Denver aims to return to the promised land and win a second NBA title in the Nikola Jokić era. They boast the league’s top offensive rating as a team and enter the postseason on a 12-game winning streak, far and away the longest in the league right now.

We’re in for a good one, as we saw with the 142–138 overtime Christmas Day win for the Nuggets, in which Julius Randle dropped 32, Jamal Murray scored 35, Anthony Edwards went for 44, and Jokić put together one of the signature performances of his career with 56 points on 15-of-21 from the field, with 16 rebounds, 15 assists and a pair of blocks.

The series tips off on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET, so get your weekend in order. Here are three bold predictions for how one of the best series of the first round will play out.

Anthony Edwards averages over 30 points per game and is unstoppable throughout the series

Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards has been in and out of the lineup this season. | Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

Edwards and the Timberwolves are no strangers to big series against the Nuggets, and in the last few years, the four-time All-Star has thrived in series against Denver.

The young Minnesota team lost in five games to the Nuggets in the first round of the 2023 playoffs, but Edwards was up for the challenge, scoring 31.2 points per game along with 5.2 assists, 5.0 rebounds, 2.0 blocks and 1.8 steals. Denver would go on to win the NBA title that year.

The two sides would meet up the following year in the Western Conference semifinals, and this time the Timberwolves came out on top in a seven-game classic, with Edwards averaging 27.7 in the series. He scored 43 in a Game 1 win and 44 in a Game 4 loss, though the Nuggets would actually manage to hold him under 20 points three times in the series. Impressively, his supporting cast would step up when Edwards scored just 16 in a Game 7 win, while overcoming 69 combined points from Jokić and Murray.

Edwards’s superstar play against Denver isn’t limited to the postseason. In seven regular season games since the start of the 2024–25 campaign, Edwards has averaged 31 points, 6.0 assists and 5.1 rebounds per game against the Nuggets, topping 30 points three times and scoring 44 in the epic Christmas Day showdown this season, only to be outdone by Jokić’s otherworldly 56/16/15 game.

So much ink has been spilled about the “switch” that Minnesota must flip in order to compete in this series, and Edwards’s availability has been a major reason for the inconsistency they’ve experienced. Edwards played in just 61 games this year, falling short of the 65-game threshold for postseason awards while having his extraordinary circumstances appeal denied (unlike Luka Dončić and Cade Cunningham). Time will tell if the Timberwolves are successful in finding their postseason gear in the nick of time, but it would be shocking to see Edwards perform at anything less than his A-level, as long as he’s healthy. Expect him to put up more than 30 points per night and be a menace against a shoddy Denver defense.

Timberwolves will neutralize Jamal Murray, but Nikola Jokić will have MVP voters second-guessing themselves and Minnesota forwards consulting higher powers

Nikola Jokić won the third of his three MVP awards in 2024, but is expected to fall short despite a remarkable ‘25–26 season. | Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

Concerns about the Nuggets defense has pushed them down into a lower tier of championship contender than teams like the Thunder and Spurs, but their offense is absolutely elite, thanks to the long-awaited regular season star-turn of Murray. The 28-year-old first-time All-Star averaged a career high 25.4 points per game this year, with a solid FG% of .573. His success translated against the Timberwolves this season as well, averaging 31.5 points per game in their four regular season contests, including a 43-point game in October.

Murray found the consistency many have looked for from him over the years this season, and he has long been a playoff threat. Minnesota has the bodies to contain him though, with Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo, Jaden McDaniels and midseason acquisition Ayo Dosunmu all taking turns playing physical perimeter defense. 

Unfortunately for the T’Wolves, as good as Murray is, he is a distant second in terms of threats that Denver presents. And Minnesota isn’t as well equipped to defend Jokić as two years ago when they took down the Nuggets to reach the Western Conference finals. That year, forward Karl-Anthony Towns took a significant role in slowing down Jokić as much as possible. He scored 29 points per game in the seven-game series, but he had to work for it, and shot just 8-for-35 from three-point range in the series. 

Towns is busy with the Knicks preparing to face the Hawks. In steps Randle, who gives up significant size to Jokić, and knows exactly what he’s up against.

"Probably gotta call God and talk to him for a little bit and ask him for a few favors,” Randle said this week of facing Jokić, per Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic.
It’s going to be a tough matchup. He’s an incredible player. ... It’s going to be a battle, but we’re prepared. We’re ready for it."

Randle is far from the only T’Wolves frontcourt player facing a mismatch. Jokić seems to relish matchups with four-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert. Naz Reid, McDaniels, and even Edwards may find themselves defending the three-time MVP during stretches of the series. None is a good option for Chris Finch and his staff.

Minnesota will do what it can with Murray and hold him under his season averages. But Jokić will average more than 35 points and a triple-double in the series, and remind the viewing public that he’s the best player in the world once again, even if he finishes third for MVP.

Nuggets overcome a pair of vintage Edwards performances to win in six games

Jamal Murray is coming off of his best NBA regular season, which resulted in his first All-Star nod. | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Two of the NBA’s brightest stars will take center stage in the latest edition of one of the sport’s most underrated rivalries today. And both will live up to the billing. 

Edwards, eager to make a major impact after a trying season, will be his vintage self and help the Timberwolves steal a pair of games—one in Minnesota and one in Denver, with at least one game of 45-plus points in the mix.

The others will show the Timberwolves’ limitations in stopping not only Jokić, but his explosive supporting cast, including a healthy Aaron Gordon, the reliable Tim Hardaway Jr. and Cameron Johnson, who is finding his way in recent weeks after a rough first season in Denver.

The Nuggets won 12 consecutive games to end their regular season, have the league’s most potent offense and are playing their best basketball at the ideal time. Their defensive struggles may cost them down the road, but they’ll take down their recent rivals once again to open this year’s playoffs.

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