Analyzing Raptors' NBA Finals Chances with Healthy Roster

The Toronto Raptors were far from 100 percent during the playoffs, which ended their postseason run in the first round against the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Toronto Raptors forward Brandon Ingram dribbles the ball past Cleveland Cavaliers guard Sam Merrill. | Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images

The Toronto Raptors are regrouping after losing in the playoffs this spring against the Cleveland Cavaliers in a tough seven-game series.

During the series, starting point guard Immanuel Quickley did not appear in any games due to a hamstring strain, while Brandon Ingram missed the final 2.5 games with heel soreness. Ingram underwent surgery to correct the injury and is expected to make a full recovery. Despite their absences, the Raptors nearly came out on top against the Cavaliers.

This begs the question, how far would the Raptors have gone in the playoffs had they been fully healthy?

Cleveland Cavaliers

Toronto Raptors forward Scottie Barnes goes for a loose ball against Cleveland Cavaliers center Jarrett Allen. | Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

The game that stands out the most from the Raptors-Cavaliers series is Game 5, where the Raptors fell by just 5 points in a 125-120 defeat. During that game, Brandon Ingram played only 11 minutes and scored a single point. The Raptors had a lead going into the fourth quarter in that matchup, but without Ingram on the floor, they managed just 17 points in the final frame.

The Cavs took advantage and took a 3-2 series lead. It's safe to say the Raptors missed Ingram, especially in that game, and their strategy was forced to pivot after he exited the game. There is a very realistic argument to be made that the Raptors win that game had Ingram stayed healthy.

For the sake of this exercise, let's assume the Raptors win Game 5 and close things out in Game 6, giving them their first playoff series victory since 2020.

Detroit Pistons

Detroit Pistons Ronald Holland II defends against Toronto Raptors RJ Barrett. | David Reginek-Imagn Images

If the Raptors advanced past the Cavaliers, it would have lined them up for a series against the Detroit Pistons, who struggled in the postseason despite being the top overall seed in the Eastern Conference. The Pistons' lack of experience would have mirrored the Raptors', but Toronto might have been able to compete with them in a potential series.

Scottie Barnes would have drawn the assignment of defending Cade Cunningham, which would have made the MVP candidate's life very difficult. Barnes' playoff-level defense gave the Cavaliers fits at times during their series, and that tone would have given the Raptors a chance against a Pistons team that loves to sit down and guard as well.

During the regular season, the Pistons won two out of three games against the Raptors, which signals that it would have been a likely competitive series between the two teams.

The Pistons were able to overcome elimination while trailing 3-2 against both the Orlando Magic and Cavaliers, which suggests that they would not have been an easy out against the Raptors. Even with a healthy Quickley and Ingram, this is likely where the playoff journey would have stopped for the Raptors.

What Does This Mean Moving Forward?

Toronto Raptors guard Immanuel Quickley congratulates forward Brandon Ingram | John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

The playoffs are tricky to navigate because there are so many variables to consider. The Pistons might not have made it past the first round if Magic forward Franz Wagner didn't get injured himself. That would have led the Raptors to a second-round series against the Magic, which could have worked out in their favor.

The Raptors would have made it, possibly, to the Eastern Conference Finals against the New York Knicks. The Knicks might have also struggled to get past the second round if the Boston Celtics weren't dealing with injuries of their own. Jayson Tatum missed Game 7 against the Philadelphia 76ers, which definitely shook the entire playoff bracket.

It's safe to say injuries are always going to be part of the equation, and staying healthy is super important. However, teams cannot use hypothetical injuries (or the lack thereof) as a way to evaluate progress. The Raptors have to look at the roster they have and accept the results that took place in order to evaluate how to move forward.

The Raptors can assume they would have had a better run with a healthy starting lineup, but that doesn't excuse them from looking into other possible methods to improve the roster.

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