Will Raptors Miss Playoffs if Kawhi Leonard Trade Doesn't Happen?

The Toronto Raptors are in a tight spot as they await the results of the league's investigation of Kawhi Leonard and the Los Angeles Clippers.

The Raptors agreed to a trade that would bring Leonard back to Toronto in exchange for Brandon Ingram, Gradey Dick and multiple draft assets, including two first-round picks. With reports looming that the investigation may not end before the start of training camp, the Raptors have to think about the possibility that this trade may not happen.

If this deal falls through, the Raptors will still have a good team, but one that will struggle in a revamped Eastern Conference.

Teams Better Than the Raptors Without Kawhi Leonard

Los Angeles Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard against the Phoenix Suns. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Raptors are coming off a season in which they finished 5th place in the Eastern Conference. They made it all the way to Game 7 in the first round of the playoffs, but fell to the Cleveland Cavaliers.

It would be safe to assume that the Cavs, Detroit Pistons, New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers, who all made it to the second round of the playoffs, would be better than the Raptors if Toronto didn't make any major improvements this offseason. The 76ers made arguably the biggest splash out of the four by trading for Jaylen Brown from the Boston Celtics for Paul George.

In a competitive Eastern Conference, the Raptors needed to make a push, which they did with the Leonard trade. However, if it becomes null and void, they will fall behind since other teams are making some moves as well.

Teams Gaining on the Raptors

Miami Heat forward Giannis Antetokounmpo speaks to reporters during his introductory press conference. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

There are very few teams that didn't make any upgrades in the Eastern Conference this season. While the Celtics may be one of the teams viewed as a regressor, they still remain one of the strongest-coached teams in the league, making them a threat to the Raptors.

In addition, the Charlotte Hornets, Atlanta Hawks and Miami Heat all made big trades that could allow them to leapfrog the Raptors in the standings. While the Hornets parted ways with LaMelo Ball, the new construction of their roster could compete for a playoff spot. The Hawks are making a push by acquiring Lu Dort while the Heat are pushing all of their chips in by trading for Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Without the Leonard trade, the Raptors would fall behind all of these teams. There's also the Orlando Magic and Indiana Pacers, who haven't made any major moves, but internal changes like the hiring of head coach Sean Sweeney and the return of Tyrese Haliburton from a torn Achilles could keep them in the mix in the Eastern Conference.

This might be the most competitive the East has been since the start of the 21st century, so the Raptors have to keep up.

What is Toronto's Floor?

Toronto Raptors head coach Darko Rajakovic reacts against the Cleveland Cavaliers. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Raptors will be competitive either way, but the floor and ceiling is higher with Leonard on the team. One could argue that adding Leonard might make the Raptors a top-four team in the East. However, the East is incredibly tight this year and with anti-tanking rules in full effect, it's possible that the Raptors might not make the postseason if things go drastically wrong.

The Washington Wizards stand to be better with No. 1 overall pick AJ Dybantsa, so it's really only the Chicago Bulls, Brooklyn Nets and Milwaukee Bucks as the teams the Raptors would for sure be better than if everything goes awry.

The Raptors have basically cornered themselves and locked into this trade, so all of their eggs are in this Leonard basket. They just hope the investigation doesn't poke a hole at the bottom that will force all the eggs to crack.

Sign up for our free newsletter, which will bring all Toronto Raptors On SI stories every weekday to your email.

Add us as a preferred source on Google