3 Reasons Warriors Can Beat Suns in Play-In Game

The Golden State Warriors beat the LA Clippers in Wednesday's No. 9 vs. No. 10 play-in game to set up a Friday date with the Phoenix Suns at Mortgage Matchup Center.

The winner will make make the playoffs and face the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder. The loser will be eliminated.

The Warriors went 3-1 against the Suns in the regular season, but as always, there are enough injury caveats that it only means so much.

Still, I will look into those games and other season-long stats to find reasons the Warriors can beat the Suns despite Golden State being 3.5-point underdogs from most sportsbooks.

Note that I could have included Stephen Curry's play-in dominance as a reason, but the analysis would be repetitive from my article earlier this week. Curry's ability to meet the moment still applies, but here are three other reasons the Warriors can topple the Suns.

Phoenix's Inefficient Scorers

The Suns' top three scorers are Devin Booker, Dillon Brooks and Jalen Green, and they are three of the least efficient high-volume scorers in the NBA.

Out of the 125 players who qualified for Basketball Reference's leaderboard in effective field-goal percentage, Booker ranks 117th, Brooks ranks 119th and Green would be 123rd if he qualified.

If you can get these guys taking contested twos, you'll be in business.

But when the Suns are moving the ball and finding their shooters, they are much more dangerous.

Royce O'Neale (40.8 3PT%) and Collin Gillespie (40.1 3PT%) combine to make 5.6 three-pointers per game, which is partially why the Suns rank 12th in three-point percentage despite the struggles of Booker (33.0 3PT%), Brooks (34.4 3PT%) and Green (31.3 3PT%).

The one major advantage the Warriors have is team true shooting percentage. The Warriors are 11th (58.4%) while the Suns are 24th (56.8%).

Melton's Defensive Impact

Melton didn't have his best game against the Clippers, finishing with seven points in 23 minutes and posting a minus-seven plus-minus.

His defense will be more valuable against the Suns.

In the regular-season games against the Suns, the Warriors had an outstanding 94.8 defensive rating in the 55 minutes Melton played, per NBA.com.

In the 137 minutes Melton was off, the defensive rating jumped to 109.9.

With Moses Moody injured and Draymond Green better suited to guard bigger wings, Melton is the Warriors' best option to defend Booker and Green.

And Melton already showed he can shut down Brooks with a game on the line.

Melton's ability to contain Phoenix's best scorers could swing this game.

The Suns Can Be Had on the Glass

The Suns don't have many major weaknesses, which explains how they went 45-37 this season. But one of their biggest issues is defensive rebounding.

In the regular season, Phoenix ranked 27th in defensive rebounding percentage. Even though the Warriors aren't a great rebounding team either, they exploited the Suns' rebounding issues in their four matchups.

Date	GSW REB	PHX REB	Result
Nov. 4	39	46	GSW 118-107
Dec. 18	54	49	PHX 99-98
Dec. 20	49	34	GSW 119-116
Feb. 5	45	37	GSW 101-97
Total	187	166	N/A

The interesting thing is the Warriors didn't have the frontcourt size in any of those games that they will have in the play-in game if Kristaps Porzingis (questionable) is active.

If the Warriors continue to play Gui Santos at small forward, Draymond Green at power forward and either Porzingis or Al Horford at center, they will have a good chance to win the rebounding battle Friday.

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