The Fall of the Warriors Dynasty Part 4: Natural Decline of Klay and Dray

The Golden State Warriors made several mistakes that led to the end of their dynasty, and I highlighted some of them in Parts 1, 2 and 3 of this series.

Today's final edition goes over the most natural part of a dynasty's fall: star players declining.

Even in the height of the dynasty, general manager Bob Myers made his fair share of gaffes on the margins of the roster, but it usually didn't matter because Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and a few other stars covered the holes.

Over the last four years, Thompson and Green covered fewer of those holes.

The declines of Thompson and Green were inevitable, though they were arguably accelerated by roster and coaching decisions.

In this series finale, I go over the timeline of those declines, how they affected the team's contention chances and if there was ever a realistic chance to trade the two stars.

Thompson's Injury-Related Decline

Thompson's decline was mostly caused by bad luck. He suffered a torn ACL in the 2019 Finals, and then he suffered a torn Achilles in November 2020. He was out for 941 days between NBA games.

When he returned in January 2022, the Warriors were a 29-9 title contender.

Thompson exceeded expectations after such a long layoff, averaging 20.4 points per game. But understandably, his shooting percentages dropped from his career marks, and his defense was not close to what it was.

In the playoffs, Thompson had a minus-17.8 net rating, per Cleaning the Glass, which was a team low for anyone with 100-plus minutes.

He made huge shots in Games 1 and 6 against the Grizzlies and Game 4 against the Celtics. He was a key part of that title team, but it should have been clear to the front office that he couldn't be relied on for star-level impact anymore.

Instead, Thompson was relied on more in 2022-23, as the Warriors had lost key veterans in free agency and the young core wasn't progressing to help the veteran core.

Thompson had a better season, leading the NBA in threes. But the demand on his body caught up to him in the second round of the playoffs, as he shot just 34.3 percent in the Lakers series.

In 2023-24, Thompson's regular-season net rating was a career-low minus-4.5. How much of that was him declining vs. the Warriors' weaknesses making things tougher on him is a worthy debate.

In any event, Steve Kerr tried having Thompson come off the bench to change his and the team's fortunes. The four-time champ actually played better in that role, but it didn't make much of a difference in the win-loss column.

In his last game in a Warriors uniform, Thompson went 0-of-10 in a play-in game loss to the Kings. He joined the Mavericks via sign-and-trade in the summer of 2024.

Green's Age-Related Decline

One of the most impressive stats about Green is he was in the top two of Warriors net rating in each playoffs from 2015 to 2019.

He continued to be very impactful in the 2022 playoffs, posting a plus-10.6 net rating.

The first sign of trouble came in the 2022-23 playoffs.

Green posted a minus-3.6 net rating, which was third-worst on the team among Warriors who played at least 50 minutes.

He was a game-worst-tying minus-22 in the 2023-24 play-in game against the Kings.

In the 2024-25 playoffs, his net rating was better (plus-3.9), but his Offensive EPM was atrocious at minus-3.6, per Dunks and Threes.

Green had never had a negative playoff EPM entering 2022-23. But he posted a minus-0.4 that postseason and followed it with a minus-1.2 in 2024-25.

This all led to last season, in which he posted his worst net rating and EPM since his rookie season.

Green's decline was more gradual than Thompson's. He lost some athleticism, which led to fewer blocks and steals on defense and fewer fast-break assists and coast-to-coast layups in transition. His turnovers and poor perimeter shooting hurt the team more as its margins of error got smaller.

To be clear, Green has been a key part of the team's success even in this later stages of his career. From 2020-21 to 2024-25, he made four All-Defensive teams. Among his playoff triumphs were a) forcing an Alperen Sengun miss to seal a Game 4 victory vs. the Rockets b) being a combined plus-101 in the Warriors' six series-clinching wins since the 2022 first round.

But the combination of natural aging and going up against bruising centers while anchoring small-ball lineups caught up to him in 2025-26.

Lacob Did Not Heed Walsh's Advice

Back in January 2023, Tim Kawakami asked team governor Joe Lacob whether Curry, Thompson and Green would be Warriors as long as they wanted to be.

"Bill Walsh, I think I’ve quoted him before, once said, ‘Better to trade a player a year too early than a year too late,’" Lacob said. "... I want to keep those guys here. I want them to be here. As long as they’re playing at a very high level, rest assured they will be here."

The last impactful season of Thompson's career came in 2022-23, a year before he left in free agency. The last impactful season of Green's career came in 2024-25.

Could the Warriors have seen these declines coming and traded their stars a year early?

Perhaps, but it wasn't so simple.

It would've been unrealistic to trade Thompson while he was injured. In the summer after winning a title with him in 2022, the Dubs were thinking more about repeating with this core than trading from it.

Green signed a four-year, $100 million contract in the summer of 2023. I doubt the Warriors were motivated to move him in the two seasons to come because he was living up to that contract.

Trading Green always felt challenging anyway. On a new team without Curry, his offensive issues would be more exposed. It always seemed like he was more valuable to the Warriors than anyone else.

But perhaps the bigger issue was the projected emotional response to dealing either. Fans would have been devastated to see the Big Three broken up. Curry would have been devastated too.

But that type of ruthless move could have led to more contention chances in Curry's twilight.

For example, following the loss to the Lakers in the 2023 playoffs, the Warriors could have dangled Thompson's $43.2 million expiring contract, young players and picks for a star.

Of course, this wasn't the only avenue they had to extend the dynasty. The Warriors could have hit on the James Wiseman pick, or the Jonathan Kuminga pick, or traded them before they lost most of their trade value, or found a trade using Chris Paul's salary. I'd argue those are the mistakes worth focusing on.

Thompson and Green will always be franchise legends. It's hard to call it a mistake that they weren't shipped off in a blockbuster trade before they declined.

All the same, their declines played a big role in the fall of the Warriors dynasty.

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