Warriors' Starting Lineup, Rotation Projection vs. Rockets with Williams, Payton Out

I predict the minutes distribution for the Dubs with their guard depth depleted

LJ Cryer | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Golden State Warriors (8-3) will be extra short-handed against the Rockets (8-3) on Wednesday due to the injuries to Brandon Williams and Gary Payton II.

Williams is out at least a week with a hamstring injury. Payton is missing his second consecutive game with left knee inflammation.

Will Richard is questionable with a thumb UCL tear. All things considered, the injury updates to Richard and Williams were positive, as I wrote here.

What I would do with the rotation against Houston is laid out below.

Starting Lineup (First 5 Mins of 1st and 3rd Quarters)

PG: Stephen Curry
SG: Brandin Podziemski
SF: Gui Santos
PF: Yaxel Lendeborg
C: Draymond Green

This is the Warriors' second-most-used lineup this season, and it has a plus-24.8 net rating, per Cleaning the Glass.

The Rockets have a big starting lineup with Amen Thompson (6'7") at the 2, Kevin Durant (6'11") at the 3, Jabari Smith Jr. (6'11") at the 4 and Alperen Sengun (6'11") at the 5.

This is not the game for the Dubs to start a three-guard lineup. The only question is if it's worth putting Charles Bassey in the opening five and having Santos come off the bench, but I'd lean toward going with the Santos lineup due to its continuity.

Next 3 Mins of 1st and 3rd Qs

Lineup: Curry, Melton, Niang, Green, Bassey

Lineups with Georges Niang and Curry have a plus-23.1 net rating (98th percentile). They'll share the court for only six minutes in this projection, but in future games that number should be higher.

Last 4 Mins of 1st and 3rd Qs

Lineup: Cryer, Melton, Podz, Lendeborg, Horford

As you'll see below, LJ Cryer gets all of Williams' minutes in this game. If he thrives, he should continue to get them. If he struggles, the Warriors will have to consider lineups with Melton or Podz as backup point guard in future games.

First 4 Minutes of 2nd and 4th Qs

Lineup: Curry, Podz, Santos, Green, Horford

Lineups with Al Horford and Green have a plus-35.8 net rating (100th percentile). The Warriors will likely have Green play alongside Horford or Bassey at all times except for the starting and closing minutes when he'll be deployed as a small-ball 5.

Next 4 Minutes of 2nd and 4th Qs

Lineup: Cryer, Melton, Niang, Lendeborg, Bassey

Lineups with Lendeborg and Bassey have a plus-18.7 net raing (96th percentile).

Closing Lineup (Last 4 Minutes of 2nd and 4th Qs)

Lineup: Curry, Podz, Santos, Lendeborg, Green

The Warriors go back with their starters to close out the game.

Minutes Distribution

Lendeborg: 34
Podz: 34
Curry: 32
Green: 32
Santos: 26
Melton: 22
Horford: 16
Cryer: 16
Bassey: 14
Niang: 14

Final Thoughts

Because I'm not sure Richard will be active, I didn't put him in Wednesday's rotation. But even if he is, this isn't a game that he'd get a big role.

The Warriors need to play bigger lineups to match up with Houston's size and rebounding ability.

As you can see from the minutes distribution, I would have the Dubs giving their four best healthy players pretty heavy minutes.

There a few reasons for this: 1) They should be rested after not having to play a full minute load in Monday's blowout of the Pelicans; 2) The Warriors are trying to extend their winning streak to nine games; and 3) They are going up against a Western Conference contender who they could be battling with for playoff positioning.