Wizards' First Overall Pick Odds Have Chance at Increasing

The Washington Wizards need as much help as they can get on the night of the draft lottery, and one team might be giving that help they need.

Jan 11, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Phoenix Suns forward Dillon Brooks (3) argues with Washington Wizards forward Justin Champagnie (9) in the second half at Mortgage Matchup Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The draft lottery is a day when teams either change their franchise forever or leave with disappointment.

Some teams rise and acquire a franchise-changing player, like the San Antonio Spurs did with Victor Wembanyama. Others drop and have to settle for the fifth pick, like the Utah Jazz last year.

This is a draft, though, where the Washington Wizards need a top-three pick.

Right now, they sit with the fourth-worst record in the NBA. This gives them a 12.5% chance to land the first pick, and a 36.6% chance to land in the top three. The Phoenix Suns, however, may be giving the Wizards a better chance at the first overall pick.

Potential Pick Swap

Jan 9, 2026; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Washington Wizards general manager Will Dawkins introduces newly acquired Wizards guard Trae Young (not pictured) at a press conference prior to the Wizards' game against the New Orleans Pelicans at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

The Wizards not only own their pick in the upcoming draft, but they have the right to swap with the Suns should that pick land higher than their own. Right now, the Suns sit at seventh in the West, but could fall lower to end the season. At the moment, they have two major injuries they are dealing with that could put them on a losing streak.

The first is Devin Booker, who has a hip strain. Although this is a minor injury, if he is out for a week or two, it could drop the Suns a spot or two. The other major injury is to Dillon Brooks, who broke his hand and will be out for four to six weeks. This will put him at the end of the season and potentially leave him missing the play-in tournament.

The reason this is huge for the Wizards is that it would give them better odds at the first overall pick in the draft. Right now, the Golden State Warriors, Portland Trail Blazers and Los Angeles Clippers are closing in on the Suns. If they drop to ninth in the West, then they have to win every game in the tournament, as one loss eliminates them from the playoffs.

The Increased Odds

May 12, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, US; A draft prospect during the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery at McCormick Place. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | David Banks-Imagn Images

The best way to calculate the Wizards' odds if the Suns miss the playoffs is simple. Whatever the Suns' odds are at top four (as that will be the highest they can jump), you add that onto the Wizards' current odds.

For example, let's say the Wizards finish with the second-worst record in the NBA, and the Suns finish with the 12th-best odds in the draft. According to Tankathon, this gives them a 14% chance at first, a 13.4% chance at second and a 12.7% at third. When you add in the Suns' odds, though, the Wizards' odds increase to a 15.3% chance at first, a 14.8% chance at second and a 14.3% chance at third.

Although this may not sound game-changing, it would give the Wizards the highest odds of landing in the top three of the draft. As mentioned, the top three in this upcoming draft would change the entire outlook of this team. It gives them a top-tier player in AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson or Cam Boozer. One of those guys immediately turns them into one of the better teams in the East.

So, with around 20 games left in the season, Wizards fans need to keep an eye on the Suns as they deal with injuries. If they miss the playoffs, then the Wizards would have the best odds to land the first pick.

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