Why the 2022 NFL Quarterback Class Was Misjudged, Including Sam Howell and Brock Purdy
From Michael (@MBison705): Is it time to ask whether draft pundits/scouts underrated the 2022 QB class? While there doesn’t appear to be a future Mahomes/Burrow in the group, Pickett, Ridder, Howell and Purdy are showing that they are competent starters with the right talent around them.
Michael, I have two thoughts. And the first is that, yes, I think it’s fair to say that the 2022 class was probably at least a little underrated, and that’s probably a reaction to recent history. It’s no secret that quarterback, always the NFL’s most important position, has become even more important in recent years with changes to schemes, the rules and the sport in general. And that’s led to a lot of quarterbacks being overdrafted—so in years when there weren’t enough first-round passers to go around, the NFL would simply manufacture them.
That’s how Christian Ponder and EJ Manuel and even Daniel Jones (even if that one’s turned out O.K. in the long run) wind up going as high as they did, and how a lot of mistakes were made. The correction was always coming, and I think it came in a big way in 2022, when teams were hesitant on good-not-great prospects, with the thinking being it’d be better to tread water than go all in on a quarterback who’d never be enough to compete with guys such as Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Josh Allen.
Purdy, a seventh-round pick in 2022, is unbeaten in the regular season since becoming the starting quarterback for the 49ers.
Sergio Estrada/USA TODAY Sports
Interestingly enough, I think that dynamic—the desire to just tread water rather than gamble on a guy you’re not all the way sold on—is part of how the Commanders’ Sam Howell and Falcons’ Desmond Ridder became starters in their individual circumstances.
My second thought? A guy drafted later in the first round (Kenny Pickett) or the third (Ridder), fifth (Howell) or seventh round (Brock Purdy) has a better chance of having a good team around him, and is probably not going to have the world asked of him right off the bat. That gives the quarterback in question a better chance at incremental growth.
Tom Brady is probably the best example of that you can find. No one was calling for him to play as a rookie. And when he came in for Drew Bledsoe, the Patriots didn’t put too much on his plate. By the time he was in the 2001 playoffs, he was two years removed from his final college game, and had a redshirt year and a year of starts under his belt.
Everything happened naturally, and gradually, and that allowed the player and team to keep growing over time (Aaron Rodgers is another good example).
And I say that as a guy that picked Purdy to lead his team to the Super Bowl, and Ridder and Howell to get their teams to the playoffs. Interestingly enough, their class, with just one first-rounder, has more guys starting now than the ballyhooed class of 2021, and its five first-rounders. Which, again, I think, reflects more than just the quality of the players involved, even if the ’22 class was misjudged by a lot of folks (myself included).
From Cooper (@andrewhazard989): Why have the Jets not at least brought in a free-agent QB to learn the system while Zach (Wilson) plays? They need to be prepared to make a switch.
Cooper, I get what you’re saying, but the reality is it’s not like there are a ton of options out there. Jets GM Joe Douglas was with Nick Foles and Carson Wentz in Philly, so those would be two available names with connections. You could try to pry Matt Ryan from the booth, but it’s hard to know how ready he would be to play. Colt McCoy would be another option, though he was dealing with a balky elbow when the Cardinals let him go.
As for guys on other teams’ rosters, Houston’s Case Keenum seems like a good name as a guy who could help Zach Wilson, and be the in-case-of-emergency-break-glass guy. And you’d think he’d be available with C.J. Stroud entrenched as a starter and Davis Mills the backup. The problem is the Texans have let others know that Keenum has been so good for Stroud that they’re inclined to keep him for the good of their first-round quarterback out of Ohio State.
So I think the smart thing to do, for now, is to stay the course and give Wilson a month to work all of this out. Then, the closer you get to the Oct. 31 trade deadline, you’ll have a chance to reassess, and at that point some teams will have fallen out of the playoff picture, and there could be more options.
And yeah, I understand that you want to be able to pull the plug if things go wrong, because there’s been such a heightened sense of urgency around this season for the Jets. But right now, there aren’t great options, and if you go away from Wilson at this point—who probably is your best option as it stands—then it’d probably be just about impossible to go back.
Staley is on the hot seat after an 0-2 start.
Christopher Hanewinckel/USA TODAY Sports
From ahhskur (@Awsker85): Considering Tom Telesco is 79–85 as GM and his track record with head coaches, what are the chances Spanos/Chargers clean house?
Awsker, this is a really tricky question, and I think it starts with where the Chargers stand on Brandon Staley. This is the third year of a four-year contract he signed in 2021. And a lot of teams, almost as a rule, won’t take a coach into a lame-duck year because of the higher probability such a coach loses his team early on, and the franchise loses a season in the process. If the Chargers take that approach, this is a make-or-break season for Staley, and I’d imagine the Spanoses at the very least would want to see the arrow pointing up going into ’24.
That brings us to Telesco. On one hand, it’s hard to look at his roster and not see his eye for talent. The team’s first-round picks since 2013: D.J. Fluker, Jason Verrett, Melvin Gordon, Joey Bosa, Mike Williams, Derwin James, Jerry Tillery, Justin Herbert, Kenneth Murray, Rashawn Slater, Zion Johnson and Quentin Johnston. Four of those guys have gotten top-of-the-market second contracts, and a fifth is probably on his way to one.
And if you zoom out from the draft, you have what I believe is consistently one of the best rosters in football, which is a great reflection on Telesco.
Where it gets complicated is that Telesco is already on his third coach, and the other two haven’t gotten second shots anywhere else since their dismissal. So if Staley were gone after this year, would Telesco get to hire a fourth coach? It’s a fair question to ask.
That said, the Chargers have time to make sure that question doesn’t need to be asked. And, as we said, the talent to do it, too.
From lanchester royal (@LanchesterRoyal): How safe are Douglas’s and Saleh’s jobs, and is one safer than the other?
Lanchester, it’s an interesting scenario that the Jets are staring down right now.
On one hand, playing with Zach Wilson now will be a referendum on the job the Jets did with the second pick in 2021 all over again. Where getting Aaron Rodgers was to cover up all of the blemishes of that selection, Rodgers’s injury will now expose them—and give ownership a good, long look at that.
On the other hand, the fact that Rodgers wanted to be a Jet is validation of everything that Joe Douglas and Robert Saleh got right over their two years together. The defense is deep and fast and loaded. The skill group is miles ahead of where it was. And an offensive line that’s looked deficient for stretches the past two weeks needs Mekhi Becton to keep developing and Duane Brown to stay healthy, two things that would help the unit become a really solid group.
This is Douglas’s fifth season as Jets GM, and he has four drafts under his belt (he was hired after the 2019 draft). It’s Saleh’s third season as head coach. Normally, it’s tough for a coach and GM to survive three years without making the playoffs. But in this case, I think the state of the program coming out of the year is more important. If the operation is in good shape, and there’s the chance to get Rodgers back, even if the Jets do fall short of making the playoffs, I think Woody Johnson runs this year’s plan back for ’24.
From Lennon theus (@broncolen30): What’s wrong with the Broncos’ defense?
Lennon, Denver’s statistical splits actually aren’t horrible. The Broncos are 16th in total defense, seventh in yards allowed per play and 10th in first downs allowed per game. They are 15th in run defense and 12th in pass defense. But clearly this looks like a group that can’t get a stop when it needs one, evidenced by the blown leads (one big, one small) in Denver’s first two games, both of those at home.
And if I had to pinpoint one thing, it’d probably be the pass rush. Dealing Bradley Chubb gave the Broncos a pick they used to pry Sean Payton’s rights from New Orleans so, at a baseline, they got a pretty decent return for their 2018 first-round pick. The problem—on the back end of that—is that it meant dealing off guys at perhaps the second-most important spot on the field in consecutive years.
That doesn’t come without a cost, and that cost has been felt in Denver with a pass rush that’s been deficient. The Broncos are 28th in the NFL in sack percentage. And that’s with a coordinator—Vance Joseph—who’s known for being aggressive, an approach that can be costly, obviously, when you aren’t getting to the quarterback consistently enough.
So, in short, I’m not sure what the fix is for the Broncos right now, since you aren’t going to find many teams looking to give away high-end pass rushers. But all of this does give Payton and the front office an area to address once they get out of the coach’s first year.
Richardson and Stroud have looked the part as NFL quarterbacks through two weeks.
Jenna Watson/USA TODAY Sports and Brad Mills/USA TODAY Sports
From hasbullastan (@philbarrera13): Best rookie quarterback through the first two weeks?
Phil, I’d say it’s Stroud, and I say that objectively—I actually did call a couple of scouts Tuesday to ask whether I was being a Buckeyes homer if I said that about the second pick.
Now, I love what we’ve seen from Anthony Richardson to this point. But he sort of is what he is at this point, a big athletic quarterback, and the Colts have been innovative in finding ways to leverage that while he grows. So while he’s really impressive, what we’ve seen of him to this point, we already knew. And that he’s been injured in both of his games thus far is a reminder that, in time, he’ll need to evolve to where he doesn’t need to run as much.
Meanwhile, Bryce Young (and we’ll get more into this in a minute) has been a little hamstrung by what’s around him. Like everyone else, I’m impressed with his poise and calm demeanor in the pocket. But it’s been tough to get a great read on him through two games.
And that brings us to Stroud, who looks the part physically, is making NFL throws consistently, and throwing—and this is key—with anticipation. In both of his starts, he’s played from behind. In fact, of the 120 minutes of football the Texans have played, 111 minutes and 14 seconds have been played from a deficit. On Sunday, four of his five starting linemen were out. Yet, with all that on Stroud, a burden that has him at 58 completions through his first two starts (second most for a quarterback in NFL history), he’s hardly buckled.
He was fine against the Ravens, going 28-of-44 for 242 yards and a 78.0 rating. He was better against the Colts, hitting on 30 of 47 throws for 384 yards, two touchdowns and a 103.5 rating. He has yet to throw a pick. He’s hung in while taking 11 sacks. The predraft questions about his toughness are being answered on a week-to-week basis.
So, yeah, there are good signs with all three guys. But more with Stroud than the other two.
From brandondiaz (@brandondiaz09): Who’s more to blame: Kenny Pickett or Matt Canada?
Brandon, I sort of relate this to what happened in New England last year. The Patriots, going into 2022, made the conscious decision—with Matt Patricia and Joe Judge running the offense—to get simpler on that side of the ball. The moves were made in an effort to better service the roster with players coming from simpler college offenses (which would allow them to cast a wider net in talent acquisition and assimilate young players to the system). The problem was that actually played against Mac Jones’s strengths.
I think the same thing sort of happened in Pittsburgh over the past decade, going from Todd Haley’s complex system (that’s actually from the same family as Josh McDaniels’s offense) to Matt Canada’s spread-rooted scheme. Like Jones, Kenny Pickett’s strength is his mind. And in seeing Jones rebound with the Patriots reversing course behind Bill O’Brien this year, it’s easy to wonder whether Pickett would be better served in such a system.
So I don’t think Canada’s a bad coach. But I do wonder, even though he and Pickett go way back (Canada recruited Pickett to Pitt), whether the coach-quarterback match here is the right one for the circumstances.
Young has been sacked six times in his first two NFL starts.
Dale Zanine/USA TODAY Sports
From TFB (@TheSportzNutt): Who is the most to blame for the Panthers’ offensive Struggles? Bryce? The Coaches and scheme? The Weapons? The OL?
TFB, simply enough, it starts with the offensive line. Taylor Moton hasn’t been quite himself at right tackle and may be declining. Ickey Ekwonu has to play better at left tackle. Both starting guards, Brady Christensen and Austin Corbett, are down. And while they’ll presumably get healthier, and they have an excellent position coach in James Campen to help the group find its way, it hasn’t been nearly good enough to this point.
The secondary problem would be the lack of really dynamic playmakers on offense, which is the cost of off-loading Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore over the past 11 months. Adam Thielen has trouble separating in coverage, DJ Chark Jr. looks like he’s just a guy; Jonathan Mingo is a rookie, and the best player in the backfield; Miles Sanders is good but not great. As is the case with the line, Mingo’s development could change the dynamic here. But for now, they are where they are—and that’s with a skill group that’s sort of flat across the board.
All of it puts the burden on the quarterback to make things go, and Young’s been mostly fine. It’s just too early to ask him to elevate the guys around him.
From SecretNFLInsider (@NflSecret): Why is Justin Fields broken with a better supporting cast in the second year of the offense? Is there any logical explanation other than the inevitable Chicago QB curse has struck?
Insider, I covered this Tuesday in my notes. But I think this comes down to Justin Fields not seeing things fast enough. Whether he’s doubting what he’s looking at, not trusting what’s around him or not reading what’s in front of him efficiently enough, it’s led to Fields taking sacks and missing receivers. And to me, it’ll take both sides of the equation—personal improvement and adjusted play-calling—to get it right.
Fields is 100% the right kind of guy. He’ll work his tail off to get it right and has the respect of everyone in that Bears facility. Whether he’s the right kind of player to build around is still very much up in the air. He needs to get a lot better, for sure, and this is a critical year for him to do that, with Chicago’s decision on his fifth-year option due in May 2024, and the Bears holding two first-round picks in April.
From Alchemjung (@Jungiter): You called it in your preseason Rams take. They look like they’re brewing something! My question: Do you see them making a big splash before the trade deadline? Taylor? Burns? Thanks again. Love your content!
Jungiter, I don’t see Jonathan Taylor at all. They could circle back on Brian Burns after making such a hard run at him last year—offering a 2023 third-round pick, and first-rounders in ’24 and ’25 before the deadline. I’m just not sure they’re in the same spot they were a year ago when they were trying to spark a run at a repeat amid a raft of injuries across the roster.
Right now, they’ve set themselves up to have more than $70 million in cap space for 2024, with a full complement of draft picks for the first time in almost a decade (with their first first-rounder since ’16 intact). So with a roster that has 19 rookies, and their stars aging, would the Rams want to make a win-now splash in October?
It certainly wouldn’t line up with their actions of the past eight months. Then again, it’s the Rams, so I wouldn’t rule it out.
Hunt signed with the Browns on Wednesday after Nick Chubb suffered a season-ending knee injury Monday night against the Steelers.
Troy Taormina/USA Today Sports
Form Rob Slusher (@rslush91): How do you fix the Browns’ offense? Who gets the most blame: Stefanski, Watson, offensive line or other? The way things are going, it looks like a 6–8 win team and a high likelihood of starting the season 1–3.
Rob, the run game they built over three years is what made the offense go—and they’ve reimagined it to try to build the right offense for Deshaun Watson. And that’s great if Watson plays great. If he doesn’t, then you’ve messed with the strength of the team without getting a real return, and that’s a problem, one that gets more complicated now with Nick Chubb gone. Although, signing Kareem Hunt on Wednesday was a smart move.
It’s fair to give Watson, and the staff, a little more time here.
But it’s clear there’s a lot on the line for everyone in Cleveland in how all of that goes.
From Cole Phelps (@AutomaticPrlnce): Are the Patriots the best 0–2 team we’ve ever seen?
No, Cole, they aren’t. I figured before the season they were a middle-of-the-pack team in a loaded conference. I still see them that way.
From Tolu Thomas (@ToluThomas): How does the league feel about SoFi always being overrun with visiting fans? Do they like the fact that a wider swath of SoCal fans are attending games for the first time, or would they prefer to have more Rams and Chargers fans there to build up their fan bases?
Tolu, the league would love to have fan bases like they have in the Northeast and Midwest for all of their teams. That, though, just isn’t reality. And when the Rams returned to Los Angeles in 2016 (and the Chargers did the same the year afterward), there was an acknowledgment from both the team and league that you couldn’t snap your fingers and create a rabid fan base in a transient city where entertainment-dollar options are abundant.
Progress has been made, for sure. But I think scenes like you see when the 49ers or Raiders visit SoFi are almost inevitable, with the strong followings (of transplants and otherwise) those teams have in Southern California, the same way it is when teams from, yes, the Northeast or Midwest visit.
From darkshadow (@shadowlord7899): What do you think ultimately happens with Cam Akers? Does he get dealt or cut?
Dark Shadow, I think that’s 50-50. As I said yesterday in the notes, I wouldn’t have been stunned if the Browns swooped in to deal for him. But since Cleveland struck a deal with Hunt, I’m not positive about Akers’s trade options.
