49ers Fast Forward: Previewing Crucial Decisions of the Next 12 Months

The opportunity’s there. A trade deadline where the Niners can land an essential starter on the fly. The most loaded draft in nine years. But they have to get it right, no holding back, no mistakes. Bold choices.

The Niners’ best rookie class since 2019 arrives just as the veterans who carried this team reach their sunset years.

The Niners have the ingredients to contend over the next few seasons. Their fate turns on the personnel decisions of the 24 weeks between the mid-November trade deadline and the 2027 draft, which opens April 29 in Washington, D.C.

Good Is The Enemy of Great

Songwriter/Producer David Foster, the creator of Earth, Wind & Fire’s “After The Love Has Gone,” has a credo I cite often: “Good is the enemy of great.” Never settle. Settling is the path to mediocrity — in football as in music.

Apply that to the deadline, where Dollar Tree regular John Lynch prefers to bargain shop. Giants edge Kayvon Thibodeaux is expected to go to league-wide eBay, but history predicts the Niners will sit that auction out. Lynch, the conservative consensus-building GM, needs to evolve by fusing with his alter ego, the take-no-prisoners Hall of Fame safety.

The Niners succeed when they choose now, not someday. Great, not good. Trent Williams, Christian McCaffrey. They are about to face that choice again, both at the deadline and the draft.

The deadline move doesn’t need to be Thibodeaux, but it’ll need to be an impact starter. Additional options could include Andrew Van Ginkel, K’Lavon Chaisson, Dorrance Armstrong, and Malcolm Koonce.

The deadline also doesn’t have to be only about edge. Jacksonville free safety Antonio Johnson may be too expensive for the Jags to re-sign, they’ve accumulated young safeties. If they shop Johnson at the deadline, Lynch needs to be at the front of the line.

Those who are allergic to any meaningful investment at safety will chirp, no need, this draft is loaded at safety. Sure, if you take one in the first two rounds, which Lynch and Kyle Shanahan have never done since they arrived in 2017. Therefore, Johnson, deadline.

Playoffs

The trade deadline falls Tuesday of Week 10 — the week of the game I believe defines the season. 49ers at Dallas, November 15th. Winner makes the playoffs as a wild card, loser stays home. The deadline could have a hand in who wins that matchup.

Right now, I have Dallas winning, which likely puts the Niners at 17 or 18 in the draft. Their window should be 17-22.

NFC, I have the Rams as the 1 seed at 14-3 by virtue of sweeping Seattle. Teams that got hosed by refs one year come back spitting nails the next. ’84 Niners as the prime example. But the Rams’ key additions weren’t part of last year's drama.

Still, I expect the Rams to be focused and angry in the Seattle games. That, plus the league’s best roster, gets them the 1 seed and the Super Bowl, where I have them beating Denver at SoFi for another ring.

The Loaded Draft

The hype around this draft is deserved. Jeremiah Smith and Leonard Moore already look like Hall of Famers.

The last time the draft was this packed was 2018, and the Niners can’t afford to make the same mistake they did then, taking Mike McGlinchey ahead of four All-Pros and an MVP. This is a star draft, get the star, not the biggest need. Take what the draft gives you.

Picking 17-22 gives the Niners plenty of options. Dane Brugler’s recent Top-50 projection for The Athletic indicates a potential star should fall to them.

Defense

Edge – Brugler has the three first round edges gone by 10. The best fit for the Niners is Alabama’s 6-3/244 Yhonzae Pierre, 45 pressures, 9 sacks, three forced fumbles. Unlikely that he makes it to 17, while Dylan Stewart and Colin Simmons are long gone. Part of why Thibodeaux deadline makes sense is that the Niners likely won’t have a swing at a first round edge.

DT – Will Echoles of Ole Miss, five sacks last year, 6-3/315, 68 tackles, he’s the pick at 17 per Brugler.

DB – The board doesn’t fall right. The two elite DBs are gone; better to wait until the second.

S – Tae Johnson, 6-2/200, length, range, four interceptions, excellent fit. The Niners take a safety in the first? Yeah right. Second? Third? C’mon fourth? When the real GM drafts by position bias and safety is his lowest priority, you get the 49ers safety room: worst in the league.

Offense

RB – Good is the enemy of great takes center stage. McCaffrey, once great, no longer. Kaelon Black, a good player, not a great one. Shanahan’s offense works best with a great RB in his prime. Kewan Lacy may be on the board. Is he great? That’s the scouting job this draft: identify who is truly great, then stand behind it. I take Lacy. I doubt the Niners do.

WR – Like DB, the board doesn’t fall right, the best are gone and it’s too early for the rest.

TE – Jamari Johnson, the Niners love their Ducks. 6-4/245 two-way playmaker. Is he a star? Job one for the scouts. Find out.

IOL – Kade Pieper. 6-4/298 center. Shanahan drafts OL off 20 shuttle time, and word is this guy could break Jason Kelce’s Combine record. Kyle may deal down for him. From the Iowa OL factory.

T – Who is on the board? Trevor Goosby, fast with size, probably gone. Trevor Lauck of Iowa and LSU’s Jordan Seaton, 6-5 athletes and the last of the first-round tackles per Brugler — also likely gone.

The choice is straightforward. Great: deadline Thibodeaux or another edge they love and Antonio Johnson, draft: Lacy. Good: a bang-for-buck veteran edge at the deadline, no Johnson, draft: reach at offensive tackle. This is the time to be bold. Foundational pieces are there for the taking. Stand up. Get it done.

Melbourne

The Niners are parachuting in half the roster who won’t be in game shape. If Bosa plays, he won’t be Bosa yet — which gives Matthew Stafford all the time he needs to pick apart the Niner secondary. Both teams could be sloppy in the second half, turnovers could keep it close, but I have the Rams on top.

Goodbye

This is my final column for Grant Cohn and SI Online. My heartfelt thanks to Grant for believing in me from day one. To everyone who read along: I hope my work gave you value. A special nod of gratitude to The Coach and Ashley Aireonna, my 49er streaming partners for years and friends for a lifetime. Class acts.

I will be leaving social media to concentrate on my health, finding career work, and writing my novel. Thanks to all of you for your support and friendship.

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