Evaluating when the 49ers truly will contend for a Super Bowl ring

The importance of alignment in roster building

Jul 27, 2022; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan (left) and general manager John Lynch watches the players during Training Camp at the SAP Performance Facility near Levi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stan Szeto-Imagn Images | Stan Szeto-Imagn Images

The NFC is wide open this year. In theory, if the Niners get hot late, they can win a playoff game, but winning a ring with this many key injuries is a stretch. So when does this team truly contend? 2026, 2027, beyond?

Injuries

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The first order of business on the path to contention is solving the injury problem. The most injured team in the league three of the past four seasons. My suggestion, conduct a best practices study of the league, determine which teams stay relatively healthy and why, then poach some of their staff and make long overdue changes.

The status quo must end. Fixing this isn’t just needed; it’s essential to competitiveness.

Roster Alignment

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One of the dangers of having a two-headed GM, where John Lynch has the title and Kyle Shanahan has final say on personnel, is the lack of alignment. The veteran core is the team’s engine; they are signed to extensions at an advanced age. Shanahan values the veterans who got the team to the Super Bowl and clings to players who know his system well. There are exceptions, but they prove the rule.

Meanwhile, Lynch is fond of drafting projects. Mykel Williams in the first, drafted at 20, envisioned to eventually become Arik Armstead. Nick Martin in the third, a ball of clay prospect, three years out. Jordan Watkins was essentially a redshirt; Jordan James literally a redshirt.

With alignment, the picks need to be now players, while the core still has impact and theoretically is less susceptible to injury. An old core in sunset is the heart of the team, so the roster needs draft picks who contribute right away, yet the Niners draft three-year projects. Makes no sense, but that’s what happens under a two-headed GM.

It’s either old core and now players in the draft or rebuild a new roster that contends in 2027. It cannot be old core and young projects. Yet that is precisely what the Niners are doing right now. Ask the Warriors how it works out when you have an old core and project picks as you pursue parallel tracks.

Philosophical Alignment

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The 49ers are also misaligned philosophically on offense. Shanahan prefers an old veteran core and typically redshirts rookies unless injury forces them to play. Redshirting delays the help the core receives and puts more pressure on them to carry the team; it contributes to the injury problem as the core players are overused. Shanahan has gotten away with that so far this year in giving a franchise record pace of touches for Christian McCaffrey, but the injury risk is high.

In addition, the Niners have yet to draft to replace the core. The focus is on team needs. Meanwhile, McCaffrey missed significant time last year, as did Trent Williams, while George Kittle missed five weeks this year. The longer the 49ers delay replacing the core, the more the injury risk grows as the core carries the team.

There’s too much self-interest. Shanahan places his system first; therefore core, therefore redshirting; therefore injuries. Lynch values projects that hopefully become core, eventually. Both paths make sense in an individual context, but the team is out of alignment and at greater injury risk as a result.

Empty Cupboard

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On Twitter this week, a user named Jim Tomsula’s Ghost broke down Niner drafts since 2021, and it is bleak. 42 picks, no stars, five replacement value starters, and the rest are below standard or busts. That’s a miss rate of a staggering 88%.

Solutions

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If the 49ers miss the playoffs, the media consensus is John Lynch could be let go. He has one year left on his contract. The team could say that Lynch will focus on his role as Team President of Football Operations going forward and then hire a new general manager. However, that new GM cannot be an in-house promotion.

A new GM would need to be an outside hire for multiple reasons. The 88% miss rate in the draft. An in-house GM could just step into Lynch’s role, and the fatal flaw of the two-headed GM structure would continue. An in-house GM would likely concede to Shanahan and Lynch on culture, roster philosophy, and processes, so what needs to be changed would remain status quo, including the injury problem.

The 49ers need a new GM with final personnel control above Shanahan to end the two-headed GM; someone with proven talent evaluation chops, and one who values and enforces team building above the current self-interest from Shanahan and Lynch that leads to misalignment. The new hire could also take ownership of the new direction in dealing with injuries.

OK, who?

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For years in this space, I have advocated hiring Detroit Assistant GM Ray Agnew. The Lions are among the best talent evaluators in the league under Brad Holmes and have no team building biases, such as neglecting the offensive line. Agnew has a long-established reputation as an excellent talent evaluator, has been a player, in player-development, and has served in his current role for the last five years.

Other names with a proven track record in talent evaluation include: Matt Berry, Senior Player Personnel Director in Seattle; Chad Alexander, Assistant GM with the Chargers; Chiefs Assistant GM Mike Borgonzi; and Colts Assistant GM Ed Dodds.

Is this needed now? What if no action is taken?

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Without an outside GM hire, the Niner misalignment continues, the core gets older and more fragile; the team keeps whiffing in the draft, and the injury problem continues to be neglected. What needs to be fixed isn’t, and the team eventually fades from contention as the core gets too old and isn’t replaced.

Under the status quo with injury luck, one last true contending run for the Niner core can happen in my view in 2027. If they hire an outside GM, progress in 2026, then contention in 2027 and going forward.