The 49ers are 4.5-Point Favorites to Beat the Lions in Week 17

This line makes no sense.

The 49ers and Lions faced each other mere months ago in the NFC Championship Game and the 49ers won by 3 points. Since then, the Lions have improved significantly while the 49ers have not. And yet the 49ers currently are 4.5-point favorites to beat the Lions at home in Week 17.

The 49ers needed a 50-yard pass to bounce off the facemask of a Lions defensive back and into the outstretched arms of Brandon Aiyuk to win that game. Which means they needed luck. That's how evenly matched those teams were.

Since then, the Lions have added Marcus Davenport and D.J. Reader to their defensive line and Carlton Davis and Terrion Arnold to their defensive backfield. Arnold in particular was one of the highest-graded cornerbacks in this year's NFL Draft. So Detroit's 19th-ranked defense in 2023 should be much better this year.

In addition, wide receiver Jameson Williams is a rising star who has played only 18 games in two seasons but is primed to have a major breakout year in 2024.

The biggest question with the Lions is their quarterback, Jared Goff, who's good when everything is going according to plan. When he has time and space in the pocket, he can throw lasers all over the field. He has one of the best arms in the league. But when he has to move, reset and then throw, he's not nearly as good. And near the end of the game when the pressure mounts, he shrinks.

And yet his team is absolutely stacked. You could argue the Lions have an even better roster than the 49ers. Detroit should cover the spread if not win outright.