This will determine the winner between 49ers and Seahawks in Week 1

Late execution could decide a close one.

Oct 10, 2024; Seattle, Washington, USA; San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle (85) drags his toes for a touchdown against the Seattle Seahawks during the second half at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images | Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

The 49ers open in Seattle with a critically important division game that has playoff implications. Starting with a game this important does the Niners no favors, as so many key players are returning from injury this week and a number of rookies are in important roles.

The 49ers on offense

Aug 9, 2025; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) warms up before the game against the Denver Broncos at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Gonzales-Imagn Images | David Gonzales-Imagn Images

The Big Four on offense are fully healthy and poised for a big year: Trent Williams, George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey, and Brock Purdy. The offense will go through these four. I expect a heavy dose of McCaffrey and Kittle with Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings sprinkled in.

Kittle and McCaffrey are tough matchups. How does Seattle stop them? Answer: Mike Macdonald.

The Seahawks head coach is one of the league’s best at simulated pressure. As defensive coordinator in Baltimore, his defense caused four Brock Purdy interceptions on Christmas night in 2023. When Kyle Shanahan has faced defensive coordinators who are among the best at sim pressure, his offense has struggled.

That’s how Seattle can limit passing downs, but in the run game. I think McCaffrey will have a solid day running wide. It will help to have Jennings back as a third-down receiver and a blocker.

In the red zone, the Niners must improve over last year, when they ranked 14th in red zone touchdown percentage at 57%. Part of the answer is Kittle and Jennings. On the ground, while Brian Robinson is a larger back, his game is explosives more than inside running.

Robinson had eight rushing touchdowns last year due to being the default back in Washington. If Shanahan tries to pound the ball in for scores, the Niners may struggle as they did last year. In addition, the teeth of the Seattle run defense features Byron Murphy and Leonard Williams at the line. The Seahawks were 10th in the league in red zone touchdown percentage against at 43.8%. The Niners were 31st at 68.4%.

In a low-scoring game where defenses are ahead of the offenses early in the season, converting red zone opportunities to touchdowns will be paramount. Protecting the ball will also be vital. Purdy and Sam Darnold can’t afford to throw the ball into double coverage.

Seattle on offense

Aug 15, 2025; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Drew Lock (2) and quarterback Sam Darnold (14) exit the locker room for pregame warmups against the Kansas City Chiefs at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images | Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

Darnold doesn’t strike fear in the hearts of anyone, but he has an opportunity in this game that many are sleeping on. The Niner starters at safety are, in my view, the league’s worst tandem until Malik Mustapha returns. Ji’Ayir Brown is not a starting NFL talent. Jason Pinnock is vulnerable in pass coverage. Seattle’s new offensive coordinator, Klint Kubiak, must exploit this weakness if the Seahawks are to win. He needs to target the Niner safeties, particularly Brown, early and often.

I’m reminded of how Paul Zimmerman (Sports Illustrated’s Dr. Z) described Bill Walsh. “He studies your weakness and kills you with it.” That’s the mission for Kubiak this week. The Niners think they can ignore safety. This roster weakness was evident months ago, and they did nothing. Whether that costs them the opener is up to Kubiak and Darnold.

The Niners can give the safeties help from the front four on passing downs. Nick Bosa, Mykel Williams, C. J. West, and Bryce Huff can get home, so can blitzers. But if Seattle passes on first and second and the Niner pass rush is only a threat outside, then what? I think that’s when Darnold will be successful.

Seattle’s receiving corps outside of Jaxson Smith-Njigba doesn’t generate any fear either. Cooper Kupp looked done last year; with better health, he’ll have a role. The X factors for Seattle here are rookies. Tory Horton from Colorado State impressed in camp and is the third receiver. Tight end Elijah Arroyo runs like a receiver and averaged 17 yards per catch at Miami last year.

The Seahawks offensive line has struggled for years, but that was more a case of injuries in volume than talent. The biggest hole has been filled with 1st round guard Grey Zabel, who has been dominant in the pre-season. Behind them, good not great backs, Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet. They have a pro system to operate within now, and Seattle should run the ball consistently. The Niners are starting Jordan Elliott and Kalia Davis inside, which doesn’t inspire confidence in the run defense.

Game Plans

Aug 9, 2025; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan watches from the sidelines in the first quarter against the Denver Broncos at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Gonzales-Imagn Images | David Gonzales-Imagn Images

Kyle Shanahan is the league’s best in scoring off the first two drives in both halves. Outside of that though, the offense can get bogged down. McCaffrey and Kittle need to win often, and Purdy will need some clutch runs to keep drives alive. The trick is inside the red zone. They have to solve that.

For Seattle, I think they’ll commit early to running the ball and passing to Smith-Njigba, but if Kubiak is paying attention, they'll target the Niner safeties, with success.

Second-half stamina and depth will factor in. A hospital wing of injured Niners returned to practice this week. Parachuting into the opener usually leads to players who aren’t in game shape yet, can be vulnerable to in-game injury, and fade in the second half. Combined with the Niners' thinnest roster in years, that will be a concern. Seattle has more physicality, fewer injured players returning, and more quality depth. In the second half, particularly on the defensive line, I think Seattle will start winning, and that can be their path to victory late in a tight game.

Prediction

Seattle 20 49ers 17