Bear Digest

Ben Johnson's big mistake became apparent throughout playoffs

Ben Johnson made a few statements when the Bears introduced him as their new head coach that have proven to be entirely untrue in this postseason.
Gene Chamberlain|
Ben Johnson calls quarterback play a better indicator of success than turnovers, but the NFL postseason says otherwise.
Ben Johnson calls quarterback play a better indicator of success than turnovers, but the NFL postseason says otherwise. | David Banks-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

With one game left to this NFL postseason, it's apparent new Bears coach Ben Johnson has two things wrong.

He'll argue the other way and actually did during his introductory press conference. The fact he's so far off base is alarming, and it needs to be discussed.

The first is a bit comical. Johnson claimed he was happy to stay in the NFC North.

"I know this is the toughest division in football right now," Johnson said. "There’s three teams that made the playoffs this year."

Three did make it, but whether this made them the toughest division in football is definitely debatable.

The Bears won as many playoff games as those three teams and they didn't even make the playoffs. So who's actually tougher, the division with three in the playoffs or the one that had two teams make the NFC championship game with both playing for the Super Bowl, the NFC East?

This is picking at nit to a large extent. You play who you play and you beat the other teams to make the playoffs. There will be tough and weaker opponents on all schedules.

The other mistake Johnson made is more serious.

"Listen, it's clear that modern football in the NFL is quarterback driven," Johnson said. "That is no secret."

If he had stopped here, no one could have doubted him.

"You can look at analytics right now, quarterback success is a higher predictor of winning and losing than turnover ratio, which has been for 20 plus years. OK?" he said. "That's changed."

Johnson is wrong. Quarterback play is a high predictor of success but turnovers are greater. These playoffs are a perfect example.

No.1: There have been 12 playoff games. Teams that lose the turnover battle in playoff games so far are 1-7 in the playoffs. The only winner with more turnovers than the loser was Kansas City in the AFC championship game. Feel free to insert your referee conspiracy or theory of referee incompetence here.

Four of the playoff games had no turnovers involved.

Here's a better one.

In the postseason, losing teams committed 25 turnovers. Winning teams have committed one turnover.

If postseason is too small a sample size for you, then 12 of the 13 highest-ranked teams for turnover differential in 2024 made the playoffs. The one that didn't is one Bears fans know well and that's their team. Of the 16 worst teams—the bottom half of the league—for turnover differential, only one of those teams made the playoffs.

The Johnson apologists can always claim the quarterback play triggers the turnovers and determines it all. That's true, but it's still possible to be a better quarterback and still not succeed.

Of starting QBs in the top half of the league for touchdown passes, 11 of the 16 made the playoffs. But five did not.

Of starting QBs in the top half of the league for passer rating, 11 of the 16 made the playoffs. But five did not.

Of starting QBs who threw the most interceptions, half of the worst 16 made the playoffs but eight did not.

Compare that to turnovers as a predictor for success and it's not even close.

Turnovers still rule.

Johnson should know better. He just saw an entire city's heart broken by five turnovers in the playoffs and then left for Chicago.

Football changes, but it hasn't changed enough to make turnovers less of a critical factor for success than QB play.

What can be said is if the QB play is committing turnovers all over the field, then you're not winning. In that respect, the QB play is a predictor. However, if someone else is getting the ball "peanut-punched" out all day long, they're losing, too.

If the ball is protected, the chances for success increase greatly.

Everyone knew this already and it shouldn't take the newest genius or any analytics to convince anyone.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.