Bear Digest

Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings Week 1: Who wins and why

Breaking down the position group battle between the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings with a final prediction on the outcome.
Gene Chamberlain|
Caleb Williams scrambles away from the rush in last year's Vikings win at Minneapolis.
Caleb Williams scrambles away from the rush in last year's Vikings win at Minneapolis. | Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

The Bears have come a long way since Ben Johnson started practices in the spring and since their last game against the Minnesota Vikings under interim coach Thomas Brown.

Whether they have come a long enough way to beat a team that had 14 wins last year like the Vikings seems is definitely debatable.

Yet, this is a Vikings team that won 14 games in 2024, not this year. They've changed players at the most important position.

J.J. McCarthy has the disadvantage of making his first career start on the road. It' might be his hometown, but very few in Soldier Field will be lending support.

It's a debut for a quarterback and also a debut for a full team under their new coach on the lakefront on Monday Night Football.

Here's who wins and why:

Bears rushing vs. Vikings run defense

This appears to be a mismatch because Minnesota ranked second stopping the run last year with defensive coordinator Brian Flores deploying his blitzes and crowding the line of scrimmage. Adding DTs Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Allen could help them, but both are coming back from season-ending injuries. Johnson could have the key to running it against them as last year the Lions had 178 and 144 yards rushing in two games. The Bears can't expect to duplicate this but could find other ways to inflict damage. This Bears running game could be born from the passing game but it's going to be tough against that front either way. Edge to Vikings

Bears passing vs. Vikings pass defense

Minnesota's blitzing got to Caleb Williams last year only the same amount of times for sacks each game as the Bears got to Sam Darnold. If that line could protect Williams, one with Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman and Jonah Jackson blocking should be able to be much more effective. Williams had a 96 passer rating against the Vikings for two games last year and has a better overall group of targets, while it's debatable whether Minnesota's DB personnel group has improved at all over one that finished 28th against the pass. Catch and run will be the order of the day for Chicago. Edge to Bears

Bears run defense vs. Vikings rushing

The Vikings had the ability to run last year but coach Kevin O'Connell is never one to give it to Aaron Jones too often. This could be a game where they try it more because the Bears run defense was terrible last year, ranking 28th. That was when they didn't have Andrew Billings and Grady Jarrett, though. The absence of T.J. Edwards will be a blow. Defensive coordinator Dennis Allen is going to crowd the line of scrimmage just like Flores will for Minnesota. It's going to make running tough, even if he is using a lot of defensive backs to do it. Edge to Vikings

Bears pass defense vs. Vikings passing

It truly is 50-50 whether Bears cornerback Jaylon Johnson plays. They don't want to risk aggravating a groin injury because he could miss a big chunk of the season. Without him, handling Justin Jefferson becomes difficult and the Bears will need to depend on former Viking Nahshon Wright while even using Kyler Gordon outside instead of the slot. On the other hand, not having receiver Jordan Addison is a huge blow for the Vikings.  J.J. McCarthy will move out of the pocket more than recent Vikings QBs, but he could also make rookie type mistakes in his first start against what should and has been a strong secondary. No Edge 

Special Teams

Vikings kicker Will Reichard missed 20% of his field goal tries and three times inside 50 yards last year, which NFL kickers these days can't do. Cairo Santos is nearly at 90% for his career in Chicago and punter Tory Taylor has a better ability to drop punts inside the 20. The Vikings kicking game must contend with being outdoors now. Bears return man Devin Duvernay has the credentials Vikings return man Myles Price lacks as an undrafted rookie. Edge to Bears

Coaching

Ben Johnson owned O'Connell's team as a coordinator the last five games, but O'Connell has won all but one of his games against the Bears. Coach of the year vs. assistant coach of the year. No Edge

Intangibles

The Vikings have the comfort of being in a familiar offense and defense, but they also have to face the unscouted look of an opponent in its first game. McCarthy's inexperience should be a huge factor weighing down Minnesota. Count on two teams with plenty of firepower winding up in a mistake-filled, defensive struggle. Edge to Bears

Prediction: Bears 19, Vikings 16

The Vikings are 1 1/2-point road favorites and that's a shaky status in the NFL betting world. Minnesota last year was very fortunate. The Vikings were 9-1 in one-score games. That kind of good fortune doesn't happen often in this league. Their one loss was to the Lions, with Ben Johnson as coordinator.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has agamblingproblem and wants help, call.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.