Analyzing the Historical Hit Rate of Cornerbacks in the Chicago Bears’ Draft Window

This is my fourth installment in this series ahead of the 2026 NFL Draft. I previously covered each of the following positions:

1. Defensive Tackle

2. Defensive End

3. Safeties

The cornerback position is a sneaky need for the Bears entering the draft. While I wouldn't be thrilled to see them pull the trigger on a first-round cover man, I also wouldn't be floored by the move. It's definitely the wild card position I could see them prioritizing.

I don't think they're invested in Tyrique Stevenson, and he's entering a contract year (which means they'll have to literally invest in him soon). I also don't know how much trust they have in Kyler Gordon and Jaylon Johnson staying healthy for a full season.

They no longer have a Nahshon Wright waiting in the wings. They would instead be relying on Terell Smith or Zah Frazier to hold down the fort if Johnson were to go down (I think Cam Lewis will likely be the next man up if Gordon were to miss time) or Stevenson were to regress, or, more specifically, not improve.

The question that bears asking is, what are their odds of finding a gem picking late in the first? How have teams fared in a similar situation over the years?

Player	Team	Year & Pick	Grade
Kareem Jackson	Texans	2010, 20	Hit
Kyle Wilson	Jets	2010, 29	Miss
Patrick Robinson	Saints	2010, 32	Average
Jimmy Smith	Ravens	2011, 27	Hit
Desmond Trufant	Falcons	2013, 22	Hit
Xavier Rhodes	Vikings	2013, 25	Mega Hit
Darqueze Dennard	Bengals	2014, 24	Miss
Jason Verrett	Chargers	2014, 25	Average (due to injuries)
Bradley Roby	Broncos	2014, 30	Average
William Jackson III	Bengals	2016, 24	Average
Artie Burns	Steelers	2016, 25	Miss
Gareon Conley	Raiders	2017, 24	Miss
Tre'Davious White	Bills	2017, 27	Mega Hit
Mike Hughes	Vikings	2018, 30	Miss
Deandre Baker	Giants	2019, 30	Miss
Noah Igbinoghene	Dolphins	2020, 30	Miss
Jeff Gladney	Vikings	2020, 31	Miss
Caleb Farley	Titans	2021, 22	Miss
Greg Newsome	Browns	2021, 26	Hit
Erik Stokes	Packers	2021, 29	Average
Trent McDuffie	Chiefs	2022, 21	Mega Hit
Kaiir Elam	Bills	2022, 23	Miss
Deonte Banks	Giants	2023, 24	Miss
Joey Porter Jr.	Steelers	2023, 32	Hit
Quinyon Mitchell	Eagles	2024, 22	Mega Hit
Terrion Arnold	Lions	2024, 24	Average
Nate Wiggins	Ravens	2024, 30	Hit (potentially a Mega Hit)
Jahdae Barron	Broncos	2025, 20	Too soon to tell
Maxwell Hairston	Bills	2025, 30	Too soon to tell

First off, if you've seen the other installments of this series, you might be caught off guard by me not assigning grades to 2025 first-round picks Jahdae Barron or Maxwell Hairston. That wasn't a cop-out, but merely a recognition that I feel like it would be disingenuous to grade them after their rookie years. They landed with two of the league's best teams and largely had red-shirt rookie seasons.

I almost gave both players average grades, but that would skew the rankings. They both showed flashes and played like hits when they got on the field, but Barron only played 30% of the Broncos' snaps, and Hairston played 35% of the Bills' defensive snaps. That's simply too small a sample size.

Not factoring in the two rookies, this was another mixed bag. Probably the most well-rounded one yet. Four (or potentially five) mega hits, six hits, six average players, and 11 misses.

Notably, a few of the average players looked like really solid picks at certain points throughout their careers. I think that points to just how volatile the cornerback position is from year to year.

Meanwhile, the misses were often significant misses. While the historical misses at the defensive tackle and defensive end positions occasionally featured players who largely failed to live up to expectations, but still managed to carve out a role or stick around for a while, the misses in this group often crashed and burned quickly.

There weren't really any discernible patterns among the hits and mega hits. They came in all shapes and sizes. However, it's worth noting that only two of those ten players (Kareem Jackson and Trent McDuffie) played/play primarily in the slot. Meanwhile, a lot of the draft busts played (or attempted to play, in some instances) nickelback.

What does the study mean for the Bears potential draft plans?

While the Bears have met with Miami nickelback Keionte Scott, I don't think they'd consider taking him before the second round. I personally don't see any scenario where they're in danger of drafting a first-round bust at nickelback.

Really, the only corners I could see them pulling the trigger on in the first round are LSU's Mansoor Delane (who is an extreme longshot to still be available by pick 25) and the two cover men from the University of Tennessee, Colton Hood or Jermod McCoy.

Hood and McCoy both fit the billing of the type of corner Dennis Allen historically covets. They're big-bodied and athletic. They both thrive in man coverage.

When looking at each prospect individually, McCoy seems like the bigger swing for upside, while Hood seems like the player with a much higher floor (he seems like a safe bet to at least be an 'average' starter).

If McCoy didn't have lingering injury concerns, then I think he'd probably be a lock for the top half of the first. In fact, he'd probably be the top corner off the board. However, countless players included in the 'miss' category were slowed by injuries throughout their careers. I know every player (and every draft class, as a whole) is different, but the risk is there.