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Bear Digest

Caleb Williams Already Altered Bears History and Now Eyes Their Future

Analysis: With players filtering into Halas Hall Saturday, Bears chances to prove those skeptical of a second straight playoff berth wrong rest with No. 18.
Gene Chamberlain|
Caleb Williams has ushered in the dawn of a new Bears era and there is no going back.
Caleb Williams has ushered in the dawn of a new Bears era and there is no going back. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

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Chicago Bears

Caleb Williams reports with Bears quarterbacks and rookies Saturday for the start of training camp in advance of Tuesday's full-squad reporting day, and at the outset what he has achieved to date must be re-emphasized.

It goes well beyond the No. 51 ranking given to him by NFL players in the NFL.com top 100 poll. It is based on a tangible statistic and not some modern analytic like EPA.

For a franchise thoroughly ensconced from the NFL's origin through 2023 at running the ball and defense, Williams is a shocking departure. He is not just fresh air for fans, but is actually the chance to breathe real air for the first time.

Williams is already the greatest passer in the history of the Chicago Bears after two seasons.

Tell-tale Caleb Williams statistic

This is based on the touchdown-to-interception passing differential and there really is no other more critical individual passing statistic to celebrate. Modern passing analytics mean nothing if a QB can't come up with a huge TD-to-interception differential. Accuracy is important and so is yards per attempt, but if a QB who can't produce far more TDs than interceptions simply is not in tune with modern football.

Williams is at plus-34 for his career after 20-to-6 and 27-to-7 ratios in his first two season, and Jay Cutler is the only other Bears QB to post double-digit differential of TDs to interceptions for successive seasons. Cutler didn't measure up to Williams' differentials, with plus-10 in both 2014-15. Cutler threw 28 TDs passes to 18 interceptions in 2014 under Marc Trestman in a five-win season, then 21 TDs to 11 interceptions in 2015 under John Fox in a six-win performance.

No other Bears QB really came close to doing what Williams did. Erik Kramer had the one big season with 29 TD passes and 10 interceptions for a plus-19 in 1995 while they missed the playoffs at 9-7. His only other positive Bears TD/interception differential came three years later, with nine TDs and seven picks before he exited.

Sid Luckman couldn't even do it

Even Sid Luckman, whose very name for decades was spoken with reverence by Bears fans, did not do this two straight years and really only had one good season with 28 TDs to 12 interceptions in 1943. The best he did beyond that was a plus-4 differential in 1945. He landed on the positive side of the ledger five times in a career from 1939-50 but could not produce required prodigious TD numbers.

Jim McMahon led a Super Bowl champion and made plays when necessary while limiting interceptions, but even in that greatest Bears year was only a plus-4 with 15 TDs and 11 interceptions. His best was plus-6. Johnny Lujack posted a huge year for his era in 1949 with 23 TD passes. In the process, he threw 22 interceptions. Rudy Bukich was next closest after Cutler to what Williams has done with a plus-11 in 1965 (20 TDs, 9 INTs) and plus-5 the previous season. Bill Wade was a plus-3 in the championship year of 1963 and his only other positive season was 1961, when he came over from the Rams and was plus-9 at 22 TDs to 13 interceptions.

It would be hard to envision Williams failing to get double digits in TD/interception differential for a third straight year mainly because of his coach. This coach-QB relationship is the reason there is hope as practices begin for the Bears to stand all of the skeptics on their ears. The Athletic became the latest to throw shade at their prospects for 2026 by declaring them one of the two most overrated teams.

The QB-coaching tandem

As long as Ben Johnson is there with Williams, there is hope for the Bears offense and victories. They showed this with all of the comeback wins last year.

With Johnson's offensive mind, the Bears are looking to finish top-10 in offense in successive years for the first time since Mike Ditka coached them and they did it four straight years from 1983-87. When they did it then, it looked nothing like now. It was built on giving Walter Payton the ball over and over, throwing a few play-action deep passes to Willie Gault and letting their dominant defense do the rest.

They have the chance to finish top 10 in scoring over successive seasons for the first time since 1989-90.

The Bears truly have become a modern era offensive team with Johnson and Williams providing the necessary formula.

What this all can mean

More important than anything else as they start this second year with those two together is how much defense they can provide in support of the attack. Their last two seasons have been the worst in succession for a Bears defense since Mel Tucker's group finished 30th under Trestman in 2013-14.

What the Bears did last year was remarkable with 33 takeaways to lead the NFL. What they could do with Johnson's offense, Williams' arm, and just a consistent, middle-ranked defense in yards allowed could be exactly what they need in order to prove their 2025 season of tight victories was no fluke.

If they find that defense while Williams takes the third-year step forward many QBs take, passing yardage records and differentials won't be the topic for next year.

Nor will a division title defense be the issue.

Instead, it could be a repeat Super Bowl trip or adding another Lombardi Trophy.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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