Chicago Bears 2026 Record Predictions From Experts Have Common Theme

With just days to go before the 2026 NFL season begins for the Chicago Bears on Sunday, Sept. 13, experts are giving their last-minute record predictions.

The Bears are coming off a season in which they posted an 11-6 record and finished first in the NFC North. Chicago also pulled off its first playoff victory since 2010 with an incredible comeback victory over the Green Bay Packers in the wild-card round.

Unfortunately, that's where the Bears hit a wall, as Chicago went on to drop the contest against the Los Angeles Rams in the divisional round of the playoffs.

However, the season was widely considered a success because the Bears ended their four-year playoff drought, and did so in the first year with head coach Ben Johnson, which put the Bears ahead of schedule.

The topic of conversation surrounding the Bears all offseason long has been the team's ability to stave off regression, which has been a major issue since the team last made the playoffs in back-to-back years in 2005 and 2006.

When taking a trip around the NFL landscape to see what experts think about possible regression based on record predictions, it's clear they believe Chicago is unlikely to avoid that outcome.

Chicago Bears 2026 record predictions

Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson. — Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson looks on during Training Camp at Halas Hall. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Gene Chamberlain, Chicago Bears On SI: 9-8 (miss playoffs)

Conor Orr, Sports Illustrated: 10-7 (miss playoffs)

John Breech, CBS Sports: 10-7 (wild card)

Nate Davis, USA TODAY: 12-5 (division winner)

Gary Davenport, Bleacher Report: 9-8 (miss playoffs)

What's the common theme?

Chicago Bears defensive coordinator Dennis Allen. — Chicago Bears defensive coordinator Dennis Allen walks on the field during training camp at Halas Hall. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The common theme among these predictions is the Bears will regress at least a little, with four of the five experts pegging Chicago to finish with 10 or less wins.

Of the two experts who project 10 wins for Chicago, only one of them, CBS Sports' John Breech, believes that will be enough to get the Bears back to the playoffs, which would amount to an outcome Chicago hasn't had since 2005 and 2006.

USA TODAY's Nate Davis has the rosiest prediction at 12-5, which would make the Bears legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Davis is not ruling out regression in the takeaways department, nor is he discounting Chicago's tough schedule.

However, he believes a jump in Year 2 of the Ben Johnson era will catapult Chicago to the record he has predicted.

"Yet overall progression in Year 2 under HC Ben Johnson is just as likely, assuming Williams and Co. continue to master an offense which spotlights a daunting run game and should get more from a diverse and talented group of pass catchers – perhaps enough to finally make Williams’ the 106-year-old franchise’s first 4,000-yard passer after he fell 58 yards short of the mark in 2025," he said. "Playing three of the first four games at Soldier Field should help.

Our Gene Chamberlain has the most pessimistic outlook for the Bears with a 9-8 prediction. Chamberlain's biggest concerns are the secondary, and more specifically with the injuries to Coby Bryant and Kyler Gordon, and the offensive line, where he is worried about left tackle and center.

Chamberlain believes the Bears "won't have a problem breaking all team offensive records," but Chicago will "find out what all of that offense is really worth when you can't stop someone else."

Hard to argue with Chamberlain's thoughts there.

As nice as it would be to see the Bears sport an elite offense, the defense is going to have to hold up its end of the bargain to some extent and we're just not sure the unit can do that with so many question marks, especially in the secondary and along the defensive line.

Add us as a preferred source on Google