Bear Digest

Chicago Bears and Cleveland Browns for Week 15, who wins and why

A look at positional group matchups with a prediction on who wins as the Bears and Caleb Williams try to rebound from their loss at Green Bay.
Gene Chamberlain|
Cole Kmet tucks it and plows for more yards after a catch against Cleveland.
Cole Kmet tucks it and plows for more yards after a catch against Cleveland. | Scott Galvin-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

The way Bears GM Ryan Poles and coach Ben Johnson put together this team has targeted what they will face over the next four weeks, particularly this game Sunday at Soldier Field against Cleveland.

The bitter cold weather expected and the running game weighed heavily on their minds and it might have created a different situation than the way the offense in Detroit was built while Johnson coached there.

"I mean it's certainly part of your thought process as you're building the team," Johnson said. "Using your home field to your advantage as much as you can.

"We're playing a lot of games outside. Once we hit that Minnesota game, second half of the season, I think that was our last indoor game. I think all along we've been of the mind, and I know I've said this before, we want the ability to run it or throw it, whatever it takes to win. If that's 50 times on the ground, 50 times in the air, we need that ability to adjust and morph based on what the game dictates."

It's the time when running matters

Passing it 50 times seems a bit risky for the conditions they'll play in Sunday, but the weather on the lakefront can be fickle.

"I think we're at a good spot right now to where that running game has come on strong, it's physical," Johnson said. "I give a lot of credit to our guys.

"Was talking to some of them earlier today about it and the way the o-line's coming off the ball, the way the tight ends are blocking, Kyle Monangai—I didn't see it in the game, but you see the paint of the helmet come off on the defender."

Not only did the paint come off the defender's helmet, but the logo keeps coming off Monangai's helmet.

"I think that's what we want," Johnson said. "That was the vision. That was really what we wanted to bring to life. I give the guys a lot of credit for buying into what we're talking about. They have all the ability in the world to have a physical run game. So it's big."

It's going to need to be important Sunday to keep from throwing too much, with Myles Garrett waiting on the Browns defense to rush Caleb Williams.

It's the Bears and Browns on the icy lakefront in Week 15 Sunday at noon, here's who wins and why.

Bears running vs. Browns run defense

If the Browns come in totally focused on shutting down the run, it could prove interesting and much tougher for the Bears. Cleveland has been tough on running games with their outstanding line and linebackers, but at this time of the year and in that weather the ground attack becomes a game of wills. The Browns are allowing only 3.8 yards a carry and have allowed the 13th most rushing yards, but Tony Pollard found wide-open running lanes against them last week. However, the Browns have allowed 136.8 yards a game on the ground in the last six games while the Bears have rolled for 175 a game on the ground in their last nine. Edge Bears

Bears passing vs. Browns pass defense

Rome Odunze's return could make a huge difference for the Bears in stretching the field for bigger plays, as it seemed to shrink too much for them against the Packers. The strength of the Browns' defense has been their pass rush with legendary Garrett (20 sacks) and defensive tackle Maliek Collins (6 1/2 sacks) but the strength of the Bears' offense has been their offensive line both as run blockers AND pass blockers, led by the three interior linemen. Whether Ozzy Trapilo, with some help, can handle Garrett is a huge question and a bigger is whether Williams will then be able to take advantage of a suspect Browns secondary. Williams averages 217.8 yards passing at home. No Edge

Browns running vs. Bears run defense

The Browns have the back to get them yards in tough winter conditions with Quinshon Judkins, but do they have the offensive line to open the way? Three backups, including former Bears starter Teven Jenkins, will man center, right guard and right tackle. Shedeur Sanders can make it tougher on the Bears' defense with his running the way Jaxson Dart did for the Giants. The Bears' front needs better tackling than last week and better linebacker/slot cornerback support than last week. No Edge

Browns passing vs. Bears pass defense

The targets are there for damage to be done with Jerry Jeudy, rookie Harold Fannin and Cedric Tillman but the injuries to both TE David Njoku and RB Dylan Sampson removes a big chunk of receiving threat. Sanders is a big-play threat with his arm, but it might need to be off-platform throws or catch and run because the backup offensive line should have trouble keeping Montez Sweat and Gervon Dexter from wrecking the pocket, and Dennis Allen's scheming can make it tough on rookie passers. Edge Bears

Special teams

Cleveland rookie kicker Andre Szmyt is from Vernon Hills, right by Halas Hall, and was in OTAs with the Bears in 2023. He's having decent season with 17 of 21. Cairo Santo should have a better idea how to handle the Soldier Field kicking conditions, though. Left-footed punter Corey Bojorquez can cause problems for Bears returner Devin Duvernay but hasn't displayed the leg strength Bears punter Tory Taylor has. Since the weather turned colder, in the last two weeks, Browns punt returner Gage Larvadain has fumbled four times, losing one of them. Edge Bears

Coaching

There have been calls for Kevin Stefanski's job, but he has been a two-time coach of the year in difficult circumstances--a franchise forever seeking a quarterback and not settled on the offensive line. In Jim Schwartz, the Browns have what the Bears have in Dennis Allen. Schwartz is a a proven older defensive wizard supporting the head coach. The difference is Stefanski is in Year 6 and is 43-54 with consecutive double-digit loss seasons and Ben Johnson is the hottest NFL commodity in offense. Edge Bears

Intangibles

It might be Bear weather but the Browns don't exactly play or practice indoors or in 80-degree heat, either. The real intangible here should be incentive. The Browns are beat up, their season is lost and the holidays are coming. The Browns' bus engine should be running by halftime if the Bears take care of business like a team determined to make the playoffs should. Edge Bears

Prediction: Bears 27, Browns 13

DraftKings betting line: Bears by 7 1/2 (over/under 38 1/2)

Some ingredients for an upset exist, but the injury issues plaguing Cleveland should help them in their pursuit of the No. 1 pick in the draft. The Bears could very well be back in first place after this.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.