Bear Digest

Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers for Week 16: Who wins and why

An analysis of the position group battles between Caleb Williams and the Bears and their rivals to the north, with a final prediction on the outcome.
Gene Chamberlain|
Green Bay's Josh Jacobs attempts to break a tackle attempt by Kevin Byard in the Bears' 28-21 loss at Lambeau Field.
Green Bay's Josh Jacobs attempts to break a tackle attempt by Kevin Byard in the Bears' 28-21 loss at Lambeau Field. | Wm. Glasheen/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

The twists and turns taken for the Bears and the Packers in only 13 days between their first game and Saturday night's rematch are astounding.

The Packers have been deprived of their top defensive weapon, the Bears of their two receiving threats. There are other Green Bay injuries, as well.

“That's why it's really important throughout the year that we're continuing to evaluate our roster," coach Ben Johnson said. "It doesn't matter where you stand and what your role is, you're always being evaluated. I think our coaches have done a really good job of coaching the guys that may not be playing on game day and giving them feedback throughout the process of practice and afterwards just so that they can continue to improve.

"We have a really good feel for what our skill sets are with the team. If we feel like one guy's going to go down, another guy's going to step up and we can put him in a spot where he can have success."

The depth chart becomes so important in this rematch for first place in the NFC North. The 17-game NFL schedule is a war of attrition.

Saturday's game becomes a battle of who can get the most out of their replacements, who can find the most from their starters who must step up their production with players gone.

Who will do it better, the Bears or Packers?

Green Bay completely deflated in its last game at Denver after losing Micah Parsons to the torn ACL, but also other key injuries like tackle Zach Tom and safety Evan Williams. They've had almost a week to make their plans and get over the loss.

The Bears will dig down deep into their receiver corps for someone to replace Luther Burden III and Rome Odunze. The Packers should have a healthy receiver corps with Christian Watson looking like he's over the chest injury suffered last week.

"That’s the mode of being a coach in the NFL these days," Johnson said. When you have a long season like this, guys are going to come up, go down, IR, off IR and you're looking to put it all together and the expectation is still find a way to win.”

In the showdown for first in the North on the lakefront Saturday night between the Bears and Packers, here's who wins and why.

Bears running vs. Packers run defense

The Bears ran for 90 yards on 19 carries in the second half of their loss to Green Bay after failing to move it much in the game's first half, as they seemed to wear out the Packers. The groin injury to D'Andre Swift could be a factor but Kyle Monangai inflicted plenty of damage himself last game. Green Bay can be expected to sell out to stop the run, knowing the Bears are without their top two receivers and have relied so much on the run and also because their own defensive tackles have been suspect against the run. Expect run blitzing and total disrespect for Caleb Williams' arm with safeties in the box and DBs crowding the line in this one. If the Bears can get standoffs with their running game early, they'll keep trying to wear down the Packers. If they start moving it consistently on the ground, this one could be over. Edge Bears

Bears passing vs. Packers pass defense

The loss of deep threats like Burden and Odunze doesn't deprive Caleb Williams of targets. DJ Moore has had more than his share of catches against the Packers and Colston Loveland can take on a bigger role, acting more as a slot receiver. The key might be what they can squeeze from Olamide Zaccheaus and their backs as receivers. This could be a problem with Swift hurting. Green Bay didn't have much of a rush, and pass coverage got exposed in the last game once they lost the heat Parsons applies. The Bears could be using screens more than in the last game, and Williams' scrambling ability could enter into play more if the Packers do start gambling with blitzes to generate a rush. The injury to safety Evan Williams could be a big Packers problem. No Edge

Packers running vs. Bears run defense

Supposedly, Packers back Josh Jacobs is injured and trying to play hurt but he sure looked healthy last week with one long TD run and a nice catch like a wide receiver or tight end. The Bears' run defense has been fickle all year, but when they have both linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards available like this week the difference has been noticeable. They still leak at times but the big runs allowed are less frequent. The Bears held the Packers' 18th-ranked running game to 117 yards last game and if they accomplish that or better they'll no doubt be happy. No Edge

Packers passing vs. Bears pass defense

Without tackle Zach Tom, Montez Sweat's pass rush could impact the game on a few plays more. But what the Bears really need is that interior pressure because that is what has always caused the most trouble for Packers QB Jordan Love. If they have to blitz to achieve this, the could wind up like last game with deep completions or short passes broken by Christian Watson for long TDs. Whatever they do, Love has acquired an ability to delay the rush's effect by sliding or throwing off his back foot and it allows for longer gains. The Bears may be healthier on defense but the one key defender they don't have back is Kyler Gordon and a fast slot is critical against the Packers. The other thing they lack is steady pressure on the QB. Playing more zone is going to be necessary for the Bears. Edge Packers

Special Teams

If not for a less dependable Cairo Santos, the Bears could have had a big advantage here. However, he missed from 35 last week. Nevertheless, he has missed on less field goal try than Green Bay's Brandon McManus. Both the Bears kick and punt return units rate good advantages over the Packers thanks to Devin Duvernay, but injuries might force some Bears special teams players to abandon their normal roles here to have a bigger part on offense or defense. Teams would suffer. Daniel Whelan has enjoyed a phenomenal year distance-wise as a Packers punter, averaging over 51 yards, but Tory Taylor's distance is still strong at 47.8 and he has five more inside the 20, including one inside the 1 last week. The Bears give up 13 fewer net punt return yards. The Packers are slightly better covering punts and kicks, less than 2 yards on average, but the Bears are far better returning the ball, particularly on punts. They average 5 yards more  per return. Edge Bears

Coaching

The big coaching matchup last time came down to one pass that had Green Bay's defense fooled, but wasn't executed properly by Williams. How well both adjust to depleted rosters is the key. Ben Johnson has had to do it all year. LaFleur also has had to do it, but this time it's his top player gone. No Edge

Intangibles

The Bears have lost 14 of 15 at home to Green Bay, but there has been a definite swing in the caliber of competition Green Bay faces when it lines up against Chicago. This is a much more even battle and when battles are even things like home field can make a huge difference. No Edge

Prediction: Bears 24, Packers 23

Draft Kings betting line: Bears by 1 1/2 (over/under 46 1/2)

There has been a dramatic betting shift over the week since the Parsons injury, from Green Bay being favored. Love will get his big plays, but this time Williams doesn't miss on the key late passes and Santos doesn't miss from inside 40 when it counts most. Bears-Packers III will come a week after the regular season ends, and will be at Soldier Field.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.