Bear Digest

Chicago Bears and New York Giants Week 10 who wins and why

A comparison of the position groups squaring off in Sunday's game at Soldier Field with a prediction on the final score between the Bears and Giants.
Gene Chamberlain|
New York Giants defensive lineman Dexter Lawrence (97) celebrates against the Bears in their last matchup in 2022.
New York Giants defensive lineman Dexter Lawrence (97) celebrates against the Bears in their last matchup in 2022. | Brad Penner-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

Saying it is easier than believing it or living it for the Bears this week against the New York Giants.

"There’s no slouch game," Bears quarterback Caleb Williams said. "There’s no any of that. We approach each game with the same mindset and all these games build confidence."

There will be no overconfidence going against a 2-7 team, the Bears have insisted all week. Last week's game might have built confidence in the Bears offense at coming from behind in the closing seconds against a bad defense. It's not the first time they've had to rally, nor is it likely to be the last.

What the 5-3 Bears really need to do this week is take on a struggling team at home and take control quickly, like they did against New Orleans, but not let off the accelerator.

They took a 20-0 lead on New Orleans and then were up only 20-14. Of course, last week they did squander the lead before a rally. They did throw away an 11-point lead in the season opener.

"You don't know how many times that'll come up, but it's bit us in the rear once and almost did last week," coach Ben Johnson said. "We’ve got to make sure we take care of our business when it happens."

Coming in as 4 1/2-point favorites, the Bears try to establish a second winning streak and win for the sixth time in seven games against a Giants team with a few big names on defense but some of their best offensive weapons out for the year.

It's the Bears and Giants in the cold and wind on the lakefront Sunday at noon. Here's who wins and why.

Bears running against Giants run defense

New York's trouble stopping ground games, as the 31st-ranked run defense, added up to a Bears advantage even before last week's Kyle Monangai 176-yard effort. Add this in and the chance they could even have D'Andre Swift available after missing last week, and the NFL's second-ranked rushing attack should roll. It's never quite that easy, even against a bad run defense. And it can be anticipated Dexter Lawrence will have something to say about it, but in the end there shouldn't be a debate about the ground dominance whether it's Monangai or Swift or both when they face a team giving up 5.5 yards an attempt, the worst in the NFL. Edge to Bears

Bears passing vs. Giants pass defense

Caleb Williams and his receivers sometimes connect, sometimes they don't. The consistency is lacking but when it's good it's very good and he should have a full complement of receivers now with Cole Kmet back from a concussion. The pass blocking remains exemplary but will be tested on the edge by Brian Burns. Theo Benedet should have his hands full. The Giants held two teams below 200 yards passing but both times it was because their opponent had whatever they wanted on the ground. Screens and the quick game can give the Giants fits because of poor tackling, and they've given up six receiving TDs to tight ends or backs in the last four games. Edge to Bears

Giants running game vs. Bears run defense

This isn't a case of the Giants being able to power their way through the Bears run defense because clearly they've had troubles since Cam Skattebo's injury. Neither Tyrone Tracy Jr. nor Devin Singletary have stepped up. Their 14th rank at rushing is boosted greatly by Jaxson Dart's scrambling yards. It's a question of whether the Bears can stop the run without T.J. Edwards because of his injuries. They didn't handle it well earlier this year but some things have changed. Losing Dayo Odeyingbo on the rush defense could be a bigger factor for the Bears than losing his pass rush. No edge

Giants passing game vs. Bears pass defense

Someone who saw the fourth quarter of last week's game would think of the Bears pass defense as one of the league's worst, but they haven't been that bad. They're just playing with too many spare parts in back and now on the front line. C.J. Gardner-Johnson's second game should be much better in coverage. Dart's 6.7 yards per attempt isn't great, but not bad for a rookie, but he has the same lack of consistency issue Williams has had with 62.3% completions. The lack of a standout target in the passing game after the loss of Malik Nabers puts too much pressure on Dart. No edge

Special teams

The Giants are without their kicker, Graham Gano, and will turn to practice squad kicker Younghoe Koo, who is better than many teams' regular kicker. However, Koo has never been an outdoor/cold weather kicker and he missed 20 field goals the last three-plus seasons. Gunner Olszewski has a better kick return average than the Bears' Devin Duvernay but in punt returns it's flipped. Punter Tory Taylor is 3 1/2 yards better per punt than Jamie Gillan. The Bears' blocking problems on field goals and at recovering an onside kick are not completely isolated occurrences. No edge

Coaching

Brian Daboll's name has been prominent among hot seat coaches for more than a season while Johnson is the rising offensive innovator. Bears defensive coordinator Dennis Allen might be getting heat if not for the fact he's had so many injuries, and they won while giving up 42. Facing a rookie quarterback should be a huge plus working in Allen's favor as he couldn't fool 40-year-old Joe Flacco with schemes and disguises last week. Giants defensive coordinator Shane Bowen had some great run defenses with the Titans but that was when Mike Vrabel was really behind the defense. In New York he's had the 27th and 31st ranked run defenses and they've dropped from eighth to 24th defending the pass even with a bunch of monsters on the defensive line. Edge to Bears

Intangibles

The cold and wind favors neither team but if the Bears can get the running game and short passing working like last week, then it could work in their favor. Coming down to earth for the Bears might be a problem after last week's miracle win, and the Giants are in desperation zone. No edge

Final score: Bears 26, Giants 17

The DraftKings line: Bears by 4 1/2 (over/under 47 1/2)

So far, the Bears have taken care of business against struggling teams, even if they've made it exciting. There's nothing special about the Giants to suggest they can be the struggling team that reverses this trend, unless the Bears do what Ben Johnson suggests they won't do and that's letting down their guard..

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.