Bears Face Sobering ESPN Forecast After 2025 NFC North Title Run

With summer OTAs underway, ESPN has released their first power index projections for the 2026 NFL season, and the results are not kind to the Chicago Bears. Despite clinching the 2025 NFC North championship, beating the Green Bay Packers in an instant classic in the Wild Card round, and taking the mighty Los Angeles Rams into overtime of the Divisional round (all in head coach Ben Johnson's first season, by the way), the Bears are left just outside of the playoff picture in these preseason rankings.

The Bears check in at No. 16 in ESPN's index, eight spots behind the Detroit Lions and an inexplicable 10 spots behind the Packers, who they beat twice last year and didn't get much better this offseason. ESPN's model lists Chicago as an underdog to make the playoffs at 46.5% likelihood, and just a 19.4% chance to win the NFC North again.

To be fair, their 46.5% chance of making the playoffs puts them just 0.8% behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and 1.6% behind the Dallas Cowboys. The model clearly sees this cluster of teams at roughly the same level.

Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson addresses the media at Halas Hall. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images | Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

Unreliable metrics underly the FPI rankings

The FPI's preseason rankings are, according to ESPN, "primarily based on win totals from the betting market in conjunction with each team's schedule." This data, along with a few other factors, is then used to simulate the upcoming NFL season thousands of times to see how it shakes out on average.

That alone should tell Bears fans not to read too deeply into these rankings. Preseason win totals are based purely on speculation, and strength of schedule is equally as uncertain. Remember, the Bears were projected to face a tough 2025 season according to strength of schedule, yet it ended up being one of the easier schedules in the league. 2026 could see a similar outcome once football is actually played.

Additionally, the 2025 football power index preseason rankings had many things wrong. Those initial rankings had the Eagles and Chiefs at the No. 1 and No. 2 spots; the Eagles lost in the Wild Card round and the Chiefs didn't even make the playoffs. The Lions and Commanders checked in at No. 4 and No. 6 respectively; both teams missed the playoffs.

Chicago Bears WR Rome Odunze reacts after catching a pass against the L.A. Rams. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | David Banks-Imagn Images

Analysts are overstating the possibility of a Bears' regression in 2026

ESPN's Seth Walder seemed to agree with the model's findings when it came to the Bears, writing, "But the numbers suggest the Bears overachieved [in 2025]. They ranked seventh and 19th in offensive and defensive EPA per play, respectively, but that defensive number was entirely reliant on turnovers. Chicago's defense ranked 30th on non-turnover plays."

Chicago's league-leading takeaways last year has been a common talking point this offseason, but it needs more context. Yes, the Bears are almost certainly going to negatively regress in that area, but they are just as likely to see positive regression in other areas. Remember, the Bears finished near the bottom of the league in yards allowed, points allowed, and sacks.

That's why the Bears made major changes on defense this year. They reached a $40 million agreement with Seahawks safety Coby Bryant, signed Devin Bush, and pulled off the biggest Round 1 heist of the 2026 NFL draft by selecting Oregon safety Dillon Thieneman. The Bears may not haul in so many takeaways in 2026, but they're almost certainly going to be better at limiting first downs and touchdowns, too.

Our own Gene Chamberlain made a strong case for the Bears to ignore Year 2 regression warnings, and I think it's about time the rest of the NFL world caught up. Regression is always on the table for every team, but the Bears have just as much room to get even better.

Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams throws a pass against the Los Angeles Rams. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images | Matt Marton-Imagn Images

The Bottom Line

I get why some fans and analysts are hesitant to have both feet aboard the Chicago Bears' hype train. They've given us flashes of greatness before only to come crashing back to Earth the very next year. But I would think that this Bears team did enough in 2025 to justify a little more faith in them than what ESPN's FPI model is showing.

The Bears made some major roster improvements this offseason, and they're going into Year 2 of the Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams head coach-quarterback pairing. In fact, early reports from OTAs already suggest that Caleb Williams is in for a big Year 3. If he does indeed take that next step in his development towards superstardom, then the Bears are going to be in perennial playoff contention for as long as he's on the roster.

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