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Determining Chicago Bears' Pick at No. 25 Using the Magic of Logic

Applying simple deduction turns up these rankings as the most likely selections by GM Ryan Poles in Round 1.
Gene Chamberlain|
Auburn's Keldric Faulk celebrates a big play against South Alabama last season. Faulk fits every Bears requirement at his position except for one thing.
Auburn's Keldric Faulk celebrates a big play against South Alabama last season. Faulk fits every Bears requirement at his position except for one thing. | Jake Crandall/ Advertiser / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

The art of deduction makes more obvious what Bears GM Ryan Poles wants to hide before late Thursday night, and what choosing at the back of Round 1 cloaks.

They have needs and will disguise their intent from now until the commissioner holds a card with their pick on it.

There are potential needs based on disappointing or sketchy play by starters, like at cornerback with Tyrique Stevenson or injury-plagued Jaylon Johnson. Then there are actual needs where there is no satisfactory starter for Sundays.

Left tackle is a place where they're getting by on hope alone. They hope Braxton Jones can regain his 2022-24 form from before his ankle injury. They hope Jedric Wills Jr. is more than a Browns bust who is past a severe knee injury. They hope Theo Benedet makes strides as that rare undrafted left tackle who can be an NFL starter.

That's a lot of hoping with Caleb Williams' blind side at stake.

Braxton Jones is carted off the field against the Detroit Lions in 2024 with a bad ankle injury.
Braxton Jones is carted off the field against the Detroit Lions in 2024 with a bad ankle injury. Can they count on his return to pre-injury playing levels? | Daniel Bartel-Imagn Images

They have two starting defensive tackles and some subs, even if a dominant combination of run stopper and pass rusher inside continues to evade them.

However, at safety, there is no actual starting body alongside Coby Bryant despite the comical comment by assistant GM Jeff King suggesting Cam Lewis and Elijah Hicks could line up there if they had to play tomorrow. Lewis is a backup slot at 183 pounds with 14 starts in 76 games for another team. Hicks is a seventh-round pick and special teams player with 15 starts in 61 games. After a combined 10 seasons in the league, if either was a starting safety candidate someone would have made him into this by now.

On the edge, they have players. They lack the fully healthy force who fits finicky defensive coordinator Dennis Allen and his specifications for a player at this position. The player must be bigger and able to stop the run, while being a power pass rusher. They do have both Dayo Odeyingbo and Shemar Turner at the spot, but thinking either will be 100% by opening day or night could be like counting on Stevenson to go an entire season without making a major gaffe at cornerback.

It's not happening.

They'll be lucky if Turner is ready and he has very little NFL experience from before his ACL tear, anyway. As for Odeyingbo, how many players come back in nine months from a ruptured Achilles' tendon? Before the injury, he wasn't really helping much as a pass rusher. They do have Austin Booker at defensive end and he has made great strides as a pass rusher, but as an Allen edge because his playing weight was in the 240s.

Consider all of that, and here then are their most likely first-round picks ranked.

5. T Kadyn Proctor, Ohio State

There is little chance he'll fall as far as 25, and questions exist whether he is a perfect fit for a wide-zone blocking scheme like the Bears use.

"In talking to teams today, wouldn't surprise to see four OTs go in first 15-17 picks," ESPN's Jeremy Fowler posted on X.

That would include Proctor.

A run on offensive linemen is expected to lead to 10 total being taken in Round 1, and the chance for the Bears to get one of the top tackles seems unlikely. Still, if he would fall, they should be ready to pounce. That size, athleticism and agility is tough to find and you can bet a few players the Bears play regularly could use him. Detroit is one of those.

If Proctor does fall into Ryan Poles' lap, would a GM who used to be an offensive lineman resist the pick? It's unlikely. Too many teams would value a top offensive tackle to let one with freakish size/speed reach No. 25.

4. DE T.J. Parker, Clemson

When Poles was discussing their pick at the combine, he said they're in the range of the draft where they will get a good, "hearty" football player. That's Parker. He can do everything required. He had production, and while he's not small he lacks the ideal size for Allen's scheme fit. Pro Football Focus' big board description was accurate.

"Parker is a well-rounded edge defender who does many things at a solid level but lacks a true difference-making trait," they wrote. "He projects as a rotational player with starting potential if he develops more strength or explosiveness."

The Bears can use such a rotational player, but do they really want to use the 25th pick overall for this?

3. DT Kayden McDonald, Ohio State

They had Andrew Billings playing the role of the heavy, the first-down and sometimes second-down defensive tackle coming in to try and free up their 3-technique to get into the backfield by absorbing double teams on running plays. This isn't even really a full-time role even if they appear in the starting lineup much of the time. This scheme doesn't operate with the 340-pound roadblock or even one 325 like McDonald. It requires versatility. The player needs to have pass rush ability for first-down and second-down passes.

That said, you do need someone to be a big pain to blocking schemes, so to speak. If you can't stop the run with existing talent, this would be a next-best solution because McDonald definitely knows how to disrupt and free up teammates on the line. He also had a 3% pass-rush win rate last year. Do you really spend the 25th pick for a complementary player when other top-level and fitted talent is available at other positions?

2.  S Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, Toledo

At 6-3 1/2, and 201 pounds, with complete ability to go into the box and tackle, McNeil-Warren would fit what the Bears need at the position. They already have the safety who can play deep in Coby Bryant. Also, Bryant can be somewhat interchangeable. While McNeil-Warren ran a little slower than some analysts might like, he was still in the top 38% of all safeties ever at the combine. His speed is comparable to other safeties Allen's Saints teams brought in as first-round or second-round safeties. The concern over how he faced mostly MAC competition is real, but some had concerns over cornerback Quinyon Mitchell coming out of the same school to the Eagles and he's an All-Pro and former McNeil-Warren teammate.

1.   Edge Keldric Faulk, Auburn

After this pick is made, it will then be on Poles to explain to everyone why they used the 25th pick to draft a player who had two sacks last year as a healthy defensive end.

Faulk has the size, playing heavier then 280 in the past. He is 6-6, with long (34-3/8 inches) arms. He ran a 4.67-second 40 at that size and had an excellent 35-inch vertical leap. Physically, this player could not fit the Bears' defensive end position any better. There are no players with his total physical ability to be a Bears edge player in this draft.

For this reason, this is their most logical pick. Not only is he a current scheme fit, but he is a future fit because Odeyingbo's contract can't be effectively disposed of until after this season. Then they would have an actual hole at the position if they didn't have someone like Faulk to step in and play.

There will be a colossal amount of fan and media whining about his lack of sack production, just 10 in three seasons at the school.

They have Montez Sweat and budding rusher Austin Booker for the sacks. They need someone for the combination of power edge and pass rush.

This will be a pick made to please Allen and probably not Bears fans, until he starts to pay dividends.

If it's any consolation for Bears fans, he did make seven sacks and 11 tackles for loss in 2024 to show great promise. The Bears will want you to forget about his other two years (one sack and 3 1/2 tackles for loss in 2023 and two sacks with five tackles for loss last year).

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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