Despite breakout 2025 season, Bears face long Super Bowl odds

Even after a standout season, the Bears find themselves positioned differently than expected among the NFC’s final contenders.

David Banks-Imagn Images

The Chicago Bears are the cardiac kids of the NFL right now. After completing their seventh fourth-quarter comeback against the Green Bay Packers in the Wild Card round, the Bears are slowly becoming America's team, too.

Who doesn't love a great underdog story?

If you're one of those fans who does, in fact, love cheering for the underdog, then you're really going to love the NFC's final four.

Despite entering the 2025 playoffs as the No. 2 seed (and nearly the No. 1 seed), the Chicago Bears are still viewed as a long shot to reach the Super Bowl.

They're only two wins away from the Big Game, yet, according to The Athletic's model, they might as well be preparing for the 2026 NFL Draft.

Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Athletic's Jeff Howe and Austin Mock published a projection of the final eight NFL playoff teams' odds to win the Super Bowl, and the Bears were nearly last in the NFC. Only the San Francisco 49ers have a worse chance, and it's not by much.

The Bears' chances are a measly 5%, while the 49ers are 4%. Both teams have only a 9% chance of winning the conference.

The Los Angeles Rams, the Bears' Divisional Round opponent, have a 36% chance to win the NFC and an 18% chance to raise the Lombardi Trophy.

The Seattle Seahawks have the best odds: 45% chance to win the NFC and a 23% chance to win the Super Bowl.

"Quarterback Caleb Williams has arrived, and his rapid second-year ascension would hit a fever pitch if he can help the Bears take down the Rams, who were viewed as the NFL’s best team for an extended stretch this season," Howe and Mock wrote.

Calling it a fever pitch barely does it justice. If the Chicago Bears reach the NFC Championship this early in the Ben Johnson-Caleb Williams era, it would signal a ceiling that stretches far beyond this season.

That whole Ryan Poles promise of sustained success? The Bears are getting closer, even if these projections make it feel like they are so far away from a Super Bowl berth.

More Chicago Bears News:

• These numbers prove how scary the Bears’ second-half offense is

• Former NFL star says Caleb Williams is already the best Bears QB ever

• The Ozzy Trapilo injury news is even worse than we thought

• Caleb Williams and DJ Moore grate cheese postgame, embarrass the Packers even more

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