How the Bears can beat the Packers and run away with the NFC North

A season-defining game awaits the Chicago Bears in Week 14. In defiance of all preseason expectations, the Bears sit at 9-3, holding both the top spot in the NFC North and the No. 1 seed in the NFC. But they can't rest on their laurels, as the Green Bay Packers are only a half-game behind them in the standings and will welcome them to Lambeau Field on Sunday.

Two weeks ago, most fans and analysts would have picked this as an easy win for the Packers, but after a triumphant Week 13 win over the defending champs, the Bears cannot be overlooked. This should be an epic matchup between two NFC heavyweights, and whoever wins will be the division leader. The stakes couldn't be higher for the Chicago Bears. Win here, and not only will they have back-to-back road wins over Super Bowl contenders, but they'll gain a stranglehold on the NFC North, too.

This is the biggest Bears-Packers regular-season game in the last 24 years, and it's one that the Bears can win if they can hit three important keys.

1. Full steam ahead in the run game

The Packers hold several matchup advantages over the Bears, not least of which being EDGE rusher Micah Parsons against rookie left tackle Ozzy Trapilo. Luckily for the Bears, one of their biggest strengths faces what is arguably Green Bay's biggest weakness: inside zone runs, A.K.A. running the ball straight up the middle.

Making matters worse for the Packers, standout defensive tackle and run stuffer Devonta Wyatt was placed on IR yesterday. This opens a huge opportunity for Kyle Monangai, who has proven to be Chicago's best rusher between the tackles. Unless the passing game suddenly hits its stride on Sunday (unlikely considering the below-freezing weather), Monangai must be able to carry this offense with his bruising style of running the ball.

The Green Bay Packers are the worst team in the NFL against inside zone with a 31.1% DVOA.

The Chicago Bears are fourth in the NFL on inside zone rushes with a 9.1% DVOA.

Only the Bills have more yards than the Bears on inside zone runs this season. pic.twitter.com/YA6wRV9wFq
— Payton Halas (@PaytonHalas) December 5, 2025

2. Opportunistic defense vs efficient offense

What happens when an immovable object meets an unstoppable force? That's the kind of question we have about this Bears-Packers matchup. The Packers currently have the fewest turnovers in the NFL, while the Bears have the most takeaways. Only one of these units can play up to its standards on Sunday, and if recent history is any guide, it will be Chicago's defense.

The Eagles entered their Week 13 game against the Bears among the best in the league at taking care of the ball, but the Bears still forced two takeaways, which led to a huge Bears win. If they can force Jalen Hurts into uncharacteristic turnovers, they can do the same to Jordan Love, who has a penchant for throwing 50/50 balls deep downfield.

Something has to give in Bears-Packers pic.twitter.com/bSTseJhVDU
— PFF (@PFF) December 5, 2025

3. Rookies must lead the offense

In Week 14, Luther Burden will have to step up with the Bears ruling Rome Odunze out, and he's not the only rookie who should expect an expanded role. Colston Loveland has been incredibly productive over the last few weeks, and Green Bay's defense affords him another opportunity to dominate. At six-foot-six and 241 pounds, he's too big for defensive backs, but he's also too fast for linebackers.

And, as aforementioned, Monangai has a shot for another statement game against a vulnerable opponent. If all three rookies bring their A-game, this offense will overwhelm Green Bay.

Colston Lovelan — Katie Stratman-Imagn Images

Final Prediction: Bears win 24-23

Get ready for a nail-biter, Bears fans. For the first time in forever, the Bears and Packers are both playing great football and matchup well with each other. A frigid temperature at kickoff will only get colder, which should force both teams to lean on their strong running games. The Packers offense will likely find more success than Chicago, but an opportune takeaway or two will keep the Bears in it.

That will set the stage for Caleb Williams' sixth game-winning drive of the year. Just like last year's dramatic win over the Packers in the season finale, Williams will drive the Bears into field goal range and celebrate as Cairo Santos boots the walk-off field goal. With this win, the Bears will tighten their grip on the NFC North, retain the No. 1 seed in the NFC, and extend Williams' ownership of Lambeau Field.