Bear Digest

The Bears are going to beat the Packers in Lambeau, and here's why

Sitting at 9-3, the Bears are currently alone atop the NFC North. That won't change this time next week.
Jerry Markarian|
Chicago Bears place kicker Cairo Santos (8) celebrates his game-winning 51-yard field goal as time expires during the fourth quarter of their game Sunday, January 5, 2025 at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Chicago Bears beat the Green Bay Packers 24-22.
Chicago Bears place kicker Cairo Santos (8) celebrates his game-winning 51-yard field goal as time expires during the fourth quarter of their game Sunday, January 5, 2025 at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Chicago Bears beat the Green Bay Packers 24-22. | Mark Hoffman / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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Disclaimer: To any Packers fans who accessed this article by clicking on the QR code on the back of the random guys (green and yellow) hoodie in Madison.. yes, you are in the right place. And no, you didn't win free tickets to Sunday's game.

Disclaimer to the disclaimer: To any Bears fans who read the above disclaimer.. yes, I am that petty. I had the hoodie over-nighted to make it in time for my trip.

The Bears (9-3) and Packers (8-3-1) will go head-to-head for the yet-to-be-decided NFC North crown on Sunday. Green Bay, which has the luxury of playing in the friendly confines of Lambeau Field, is currently a 6-point favorite over Chicago.

The oddsmakers have doubted the Bears all season. I'm not surprised to see the line lean heavily in the Packers' favor. I also won't be surprised when the Bears (once again) prove them wrong.

In fact, I'm (clearly) banking on it.

Simply put, the Bears have been a better team than the Packers for much of this season. I know they started the year 0-2 and had an embarrassing loss in Detroit, but they've consistently found ways to win since then. They've been 9-1 over their past ten games. The Packers, meanwhile, are 6-3-1 over the same span.

Some might argue that you can't disregard the first two weeks of the season just to fit a narrative. To those, I say, watch me.

The fact of the matter is, Packer fans certainly don't want to disregard the first two weeks because they looked like world beaters at that point. They had their sights on the Super Bowl, while some Bears fans were already looking forward to the offseason. Green Bay's starting left tackle, Rasheed Walker, was even confident enough to casually throw around the "undefeated" word.

Then Week Three happened. The Packers gave the Browns, who were coming off a blowout loss to the Ravens, their first win. Meanwhile, the Bears bounced back strong with a 31-14 victory over the Cowboys.

Nevertheless, there has been a persisting narrative that the Bears "haven't beaten anyone this season" and were the worst 7-3 team in NFL history. Then the worst 8-3 team ever. And now they're the worst 9-3 team to exist.

Don't look now, but the Bears and Packers both have the same number of wins against teams with winning records. What if I told you that, if you remove the two wins over Detroit from the Packers tally, they don't have a single win against a team with a winning record? They're 2-2-1 against such teams. The Bears are 2-1 in those games, and they're coming off a 9-point win over the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles on their own turf. The same Eagles team that beat the Packers at Lambeau Field (and held them to seven points) three weeks ago.

My question, stemming from that factoid, is, why hasn't there been any (or, more appropriately, nearly as many) fraud allegations lobbed against Green Bay and their 8-3-1 record? They lost against the Browns and tied the same Cowboys team that Chicago beat by 17.

Did Green Bay beat JJ McCarthy in their only game against him this year? Sure, but Chicago's loss against him came in Week One, when the team was coming off a season in which they knew nothing but losing. Again, that was practically an entirely different team. They were in the first game of establishing a new offense and didn't have any semblance of an identity. The (now dominant) offensive line struggled mightily, and the defense crumbled in the fourth quarter. That's far from the team we've seen in recent weeks.

Meanwhile, reports began to surface that Matt LaFleur could be coaching for his job after losses against Philadelphia and Carolina in back-to-back weeks.

Personally, I think that's ridiculous. He's a very good head coach who many teams in the league would be happy to have. The reality of the situation is one Packer fans don't want to admit, or even entertain: Jordan Love is a middling NFL quarterback, and LaFleur's gameplan is often to protect him from himself.

I know his interception numbers are down this year, but I can also specifically recall five occasions in which defenders dropped easy interceptions thrown their way. That happens, though. So I don't want to talk about that. I'd rather talk about the fact that four of his five turnovers (including two fumbles) have come in games Green Bay didn't win. When Love turns the ball over, the Packers tend to lose. LaFleur routinely gets the brunt of the blame for it, though.

Why does that matter? Well, the Bears have the most opportunistic defense in the league. They lead the league with 26 takeaways despite being without their three best defensive players (Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, and T.J. Edwards) for much of the season. The former two returned to the lineup just last week after playing a combined 101 snaps through the first 12 weeks. The Bears are getting healthy for the stretch run.

While I do think LaFleur is a good coach, his impact still pales in comparison to Ben Johnson in Chicago. That is (by far) the number one reason why I'm confident the Bears will pull off the upset in Green Bay. He's the reason the Packers' reign of terror will soon be over. The tide turned when the 4-12 Bears beat the 11-5 Packers in Lambeau Field (a game in which the majority of their starters played their normal allotment of snaps, by the way) in last year's regular season finale. That was just the start, though.

Ben Johnson is the tidal wave that is going to rock their foundation. And he knows it, too.

To any Packers fans who made it this far, I leave you with this: You'll be wanting to fire LaFleur after Sunday's game. Just like you did a few weeks ago. Just like you do every time you lose and don't want to put any of the blame on your golden boy QB. Like I mentioned above, the reign of terror is over. At least you have (cough* only) one Super Bowl to show for the countless years of being a regular season powerhouse.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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Jerry Markarian
JERRY MARKARIAN

Jerry Markarian has been an avid Chicago Bears fan since 2010 and has been writing about the team since 2022. He has survived the 2010 NFC Championship Game, a career-ending injury to his favorite player (Johnny Knox), the Bears' 2013 season finale, a Double Doink, Mitchell Trubisky, Justin Fields, and Weeks 8-17 of the 2024 NFL season. Nevertheless, he still Bears Down!

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