Bear Digest

This Bears-Eagles game could make or break Chicago’s playoff chances

A win over the Eagles could tip the Chicago Bears' playoff odds dramatically in the right direction and change how people view this team.
Khari Thompson|
Nov 23, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears wide receiver DJ Moore (2) reacts after making a touchdown catch against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the second half at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike Dinovo-Imagn Images
Nov 23, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears wide receiver DJ Moore (2) reacts after making a touchdown catch against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the second half at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike Dinovo-Imagn Images | Mike Dinovo-Imagn Images

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The Chicago Bears’ playoff chances won’t necessarily come down to any one game as they prepare for their toughest stretch of the season. Nor is this Friday’s matchup with the defending-champion Philadelphia Eagles a must-win by any stretch.

But the game’s significance for the 8-3 Bears’ postseason outlook shouldn’t be understated.

For one thing, beating the champs and avenging their loss from 2022 would shift a lot of narratives about the Bears thus far in the 2025 season. To many pundits, Chicago has been the beneficiary of great luck, opportunism in the clutch, and a favorable schedule to start the year. Knocking off the Eagles, who are also 8-3 despite their own litany of flaws, would show the NFL they mean business.

But this game is also tremendously important from a pure numbers standpoint as well.

One online predictive model for postseason listed the Chicago Bears as having one of the highest-leverage games of this week in terms of playoff probability swings.

If the Bears win and get to 9-3, the model claims their playoff chances would rise from about 60% to 82%. On the flip side, if Chicago loses, their postseason probability drops to 55%—just under where it currently sits.

Irrespective of what happens to the other NFC North teams playing this weekend, this game could have massive implications for the Bears’ playoff standing going forward.

A win would, of course, keep the Bears in sole control of the NFC North—an enviable position they haven’t been in since 2018. But it would also make people rethink their odds of beating teams like the Green Bay Packers (twice) and Detroit Lions down the stretch. Bottom line: if Chicago pulls out a win against Philly—on the road, no less—you can shelve the schedule talk. They can beat anyone, anytime.

If the Bears lose, meanwhile, it’s the end of the world. They might lose control of the NFC North lead depending on what happens elsewhere, but they’ll have chances to steal it back from the Packers and/or Lions in short order. Still, it would raise questions about how ready the Bears truly are to compete for a title right now and muddy their outlook, making it imperative to pull out at least two more wins to make the playoffs in a crowded playoff picture.

So why not just win and make things that much simpler?

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Khari Thompson
KHARI THOMPSON

Khari Thompson is a veteran journalist with bylines in NPR, USA TODAY, and others. He’s been covering the Chicago Bears since 2016 for a variety of outlets and served as a New England Patriots beat reporter for Boston.com and WEEI 93.7 FM. When he’s not writing about football, he still enjoys playing it.

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