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One Number Suggests Bears Should Think Twice About a Tyson Bagent Start

Benching Case Keenum seems like a drastic move after the outstanding effort he had Monday night and one number says the vet should start, but numbers can lie.
Gene Chamberlain|
Case Keenum celebrates after the game against the Philadelphia Eagles with fans following the 27-7 win.
Case Keenum celebrates after the game against the Philadelphia Eagles with fans following the 27-7 win. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

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Chicago Bears

It's unlikely a pecking order will be established by the Bears at quarterback for Sunday's Jets game until at least Wednesday, but one number says coach Ben Johnson needs to at least think seriously about putting aside his appreciation for Tyson Bagent in order to start Case Keenum for the second straight game.

The number is 2.41.

This was the average number of seconds Keenum took to get the ball out in Monday night's 27-7 win over the Philadelphia Eagles, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.

In the first two games this season, injured Caleb Williams averaged 3.42 seconds before throwing. He was at 3.2 last year in his first season with Johnson's offense, after taking 2.92 as a rookie in a different attack.

At age 38, Keenum had the ball out a full second faster than Williams. This was a number improved by not taking every other snap and keeping it to throw later when he could have anticipated a receiver coming open and flipped it. Also, Johnson knew what would be Keenum's strength and had him running pass plays with some shorter routes.

"And Case did a great job getting the ball out of his hand quickly, finding the right guy, giving a good runner's ball, on a lot of those, seeing the coverage," Johnson said afterward. "So it's really, it's a credit to him, but also the challenge really arises with the guys up front (blocking). They're the ones that have to raise their level of play when you don't have a Houdini (Williams) back there necessarily making guys miss every single play.”

Can this work again?

The same approach might not work against every team. Part of the reason Keenum took 2.41 seconds was he threw short. His longest distance for a completed pass in air yards was only 38.1 and his average intended air yards on the night was 6.4 yards, a full yard below where Williams was targeting for two games.

Defenses who see this will sit on the shorter passes in the future and dare the passer to beat them deeper. If they don't have the air or the mobility to keep it to the point where receivers are open downfield more, they can be in trouble.

The Eagles' defense plays zone extensively and dares teams to take the short routes and be patient. Keenum was Philadelphia's worst nightmare because patience is usually what the 38-year-old QB can count as his greatest strength. He wasn't forcing deep throws into zones when it was unnecessary. As a result, he wasn't holding the ball too long.

Johnson's offenses weren't necessarily known for the quarterback throwing the quick game in Detroit. In fact, it might have been the opposite. Jared Goff's average time to throw was 2.72 seconds twice and 2.79 once. He never was among the top 10 in quickest to get rid of the ball. However, in his last two seasons he was eighth and seventh for longest average intended air yards.

What all of this indicates is there really is no one ideal model for a quarterback in Johnson's system. He'll adapt to the type of talent he has and use them to his advantage.

On Monday night, he had the older QB with quicker recognition time through his years of experience, and the Bears went with a shorter game and more timing or anticipatory plays. With Williams, he has allowed for the extra movement and the throws coming later and deeper windows against zone defenses or he schemes up ways to get receivers wide open against man to man.

It's a difficult decision to go away from someone who just proved they could do what Keenum did on Monday night, but if Johnson did go to Bagent the offense might look entirely different with a bit longer plays and use of movement.

In fact, it's likely to be a different plan regardless of who the QB is because coach Aaron Glenn believes in man-to-man coverage and doesn't allow for timing routes to develop the way they did Monday night.

What the game proved more than anything else is Johnson can adapt.

If it is Bagent playing, then he could be expected to take the offense and go the chameleon route again. He'll have an attack that beats the man-to-man, and it might mean holding the ball longer or even scrambling more. That would suit Bagent a little more, although he can play the quick game somewhat as well.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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