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Bears' Ryan Poles Made 3 Big Assumptions and Each One Could Derail Their 2026 Season

Poles is betting on Swift's health, young receivers replacing Moore and a rookie safety starting. All 3 assumptions could become problems for the Bears.
Gene Chamberlain|
Bears rookie safety Dillon Thieneman stretches during minicamp at Halas Hall.
Bears rookie safety Dillon Thieneman stretches during minicamp at Halas Hall. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

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Chicago Bears

Every NFL general manager makes assumptions.

Unless they have a roster equivalent of mechanized bulldozers up front and Formula One race cars in the skill positions, their roster could always use tweaking or downright improvement. The Chicago Bears roster in 2026 is not at an advanced level yet.

GM Ryan Poles made several assumptions in building the 2026 roster coach Ben Johnson takes to training camp in three weeks. Yes, it is hard to believe, but rookies aleady report three weeks from July 4.

Poles is taking risks, which should not be confused with assumptions.

The first and obvious risk is they'll have enough edge rush help for a good pass rush rotation. They've done nothing to fortify a spot thin in numbers and talent. Another risk was defensive tackle, and that they'll bounce back from a season when veteran Grady Jarrett played injured and Gervon Dexter failed to step forward. This is a bigger risk because the backups are all different this season and lack credentials as run stoppers.

The other big risk is at left tackle, where they decided injured Ozzy Trapilo can be sufficiently replaced by Braxton Jones after he fought back from a bad ankle injury two years ago. Behind Jones are nothing but question marks to the extent that no one could be shocked should they eventually move All-Pro tackle Darnell Wright to the left side to plug the hole, with Theo Benedet taking over right tackle as his replacement. Then there is always the foolish move of sliding guard Joe Thuney out to tackle like they did in the playoffs.

Those are all bold-faced risks. Assumptions are different but can eventually lead to real trouble if they prove incorrect. Then they're worse than taking gambles. They're catastrophes because they affect a team's foundation.

What happens when you assume?

As a young reporter in a pro locker room for the first time, my exposure to the word "assume" in sports came from none other than Mr. October, Reggie Jackson. It was in the Yankees locker room at old Comiskey Park on a day when he essentially saved the game for the defending AL champions with a diving outfield catch. Reporters crowding around Jackson in the locker room told him they assumed he would not be playing outfield anymore at his advanced age, and was only going to be a DH.

"What happens when you assume?" Jackson demanded, in a loud voice but wearing a bit of a grin. "Spell it!"

"You make an A-S-S out of U and Me," Mr. October then triumphantly bellered to uncomfortable chuckles.

In this case, there was no loser, just a reporter's hurt pride. The Bears could be hurting much more if Poles' assumptions prove incorrect.

Poles has made three assumptions. The biggest one involves his prize rookie.

3. Running back speed

The Bears return their own Sonic and Knuckles act, the only one with two backs who finished top 25 in rushing last year. D'Andre Swift is the speed and Kyle Monangai the power. Should Monangai get injured, Roschon Johnson is a potential replacement as the biggest running back the Bears have on the roster. Brittain Brown is fairly effective as a pile driver type but no one will ever worry about his 4.67-second speed in the 40. The same is true for Monangai's breakaway ability at 4.6. Johnson is big but actually tested faster than either of those two at a relatively slow 4.58. They do have Coleman Bennett, who is 185 pounds, played at Kennessaw State, wasn't drafted, and ran 4.71 in a pro day 40 according to NFL Draft Scout.

Salvon Ahmed is there, as well. An undrafted, 197-pound back who blew out his right knee and hasn't played in an NFL game since Nov. 19, 2023.

To say Poles has assumed too much about Swift's ability to stay healthy and be the backfield speed threat for this offense would be entirely accurate. Swift never was healthy a full season for Johnson in Detroit and missed 10 games. His durability improved since then with the Eagles and in two Bears seasons, but even last year he had to fight through a groin injury.

Drafting another back somewhere later who supplied a speed threat would have been preferable to what they have available in case of disaster.

2. DJ Moore effect

The Bears are moving forward with the top three pass targets they had last year and a young receiver corps which now includes burner Zavion Thomas. They lost their veteran impact receiver when DJ Moore was traded.

This was heralded as a wise move when it occurred but it came based on the assumption all of their young receivers would be able to take a step forward by assuming Moore's targets.

The real assumption made in this trade is that defenses didn't make those young receivers look better than they were by cheating to Moore's side of the field. It's entirely possible this happened at times.

Now with Moore in Buffalo, the kids all have to stand on their own two feet so to speak. From Luther Burden, to Rome Odunze, to Colston Loveland, the routes run must be precise because defenders no longer need to worry about covering a proven quality veteran NFL receiver like Moore.

They do have veteran Kalif Raymond but he's merely a complementary player who can play off of the top receivers. They must deliver.

1. The rookie safety

The Bears drafted only one player to start immediately this year. It was first-round safety Dillon Thieneman. Poles essentially assumes the rookie will be the starter and successful.

Teams like to believe their draft picks will all pan out and the Bears would be no different, especially after last season's draft success. All of that success occurred on offense, though. Poles drafting defensive help has never been a sure thing.

"He's a great football player," safety Coby Bryant said of Thieneman. "Once he sees something he recognizes, he makes a play right away. That's the biggest thing, especially playing safety in this defense as well. He has had a great spring, and I know he'll continue to grow.”

They did sign Cameron Lewis and have Elijah Hicks as backup help at safety, but both have always been NFL backups. Lewis is really a slot cornerback. A 183-pound safety usually doesn't provide much run support. Hicks had both up and down performances when pressed into duty.

The backups are only issues here because the starter is.

First-round safeties do not exactly have a track record for immediate success in today's NFL.

For one, only 12 were drafted in the first round over the past decade before Thieneman and Caleb Downs this year. Only a few had memorable or great rookie seasons.

The best rookie safety season of the past decade was by Chargers safety Derwin James, with three interceptions, 13 pass breakups, 105 tackles and a passer rating against when targeted of 82.0, with three TDs allowed. He became an instant All-Pro. This was way back in 2018. The only other one close was a year earlier when Malik Hooker appeared headed for better numbers with three interceptions, four pass breakups, and an 87.5 passer rating against. He wound up on injured reserve after only seven games.

Three of the 12 rookie safeties drafted in Round 1 the past 10 years wound up on injured reserve and another didn't pan out. It's not an easy position to play physically or mentally.

Minkah Fitzpatrick had a solid first year, as well, with two interceptions, 80 tackles, a 64.6 passer rating against but didn't have the big pass breakup numbers. This was also back in 2018. Maybe the best rookie year for a first-round safety since then was Darnell Savage for the Packers in 2019 with two interceptions, five breakups, 55 tackles and a 71.1 passer rating against.

The interception high in the 2020s for any first-round rookie safety is two, by Maliki Starks last season. As good as he is, Kyle Hamilton didn't even have a huge rookie year numbers-wise, as he went without an interception and had a 93.8 passer rating against.

Expecting something like the seven interceptions by Byard last year from Thienman isn't realistic. Thieneman is going to need to learn about the league and get burned a few times. When safeties get burned, it's a touchdown.

The assumption that a rookie, first-round safety can operate in a secondary alongside another new safety, and with two other cornerbacks who missed much of last season is an awfully big one to make.

When you've already gambled that the help up front will be sufficient, assuming success from the rookie safety or from flawed backups spells real trouble.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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