Bear Digest

Perhaps Ashton Jeanty falling to Bears isn't as wild as it sounds

Analysis: New ESPN mock draft simulator calls it a 54% chance the Bears could take Jeanty at No. 10, even if the Raiders and their GM's son have other ideas.
Gene Chamberlain|
Ashton Jeanty likes what he is seeing as Boise State rambles past Oregon State. There are ways he could wind up at No. 10 in the draft.
Ashton Jeanty likes what he is seeing as Boise State rambles past Oregon State. There are ways he could wind up at No. 10 in the draft. | Brian Losness-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

The very thought of Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty still on the board after the New Orleans Saints pick at No. 9 has had Bears fans trembling with excitement since February or earlier.

It hasn't seemed like a realistic scenario for the Bears to add Jeanty, especially after some of the things said this week regarding the Raiders and their sixth overall pick.

Raiders GM John Spytek revealed to Sirius XM that he's even getting heat from his own 10-year-old son, Jack, to draft Jeanty.

"My son has made it no secret that if we don't pick Ashton Jeanty at No. 6 that he's walking out of the family and he's gonna find somebody else, probably whoever takes Ashton," Spytek told Sirius XM. "He walked right into our building and basically told (Raiders owner) Mark Davis 'If my dad doesn’t take Ashton Jeanty, he's doing a bad job.'"

That's a lot of external and internal pressure.

However, maybe the idea Jeanty drops isn't such a long shot after all.

ESPN now has its own version of the mock draft simulator, like the one Pro Football Focus readers have popularized over the years. To sample it, Chicago Bears On SI conducted a one-round mock draft with the tool.

The reason this ties into the Jeanty pick is ESPN's simulator also gives the reader/mock drafter a readout calculating the percentage that the player drafted will actually be available at this slot. There is also a draft day predictor besides the simulator and it also reveals the percentages.

When Chicago Bears On SI ran the simulator for Round 1, Jeanty was still available and he was chosen No. 10 by the Bears.

Jeanty to the Bears is nothing entirely new with mock drafts as simulators have come up with Jeanty being available on occasion if he slips past the Raiders.

What is of real note here is the percentage ESPN gave out for Jeanty dropping into the Bears' hands at No. 10. ESPN calculated it would be 54%. It's better than even money the Bears will be able to choose Jeanty at 10.

Obviously, Jack Spytek would not be happy.

More Jeanty momentum still was apparent Thursday as The 33rd Team's NFL analyst, James Foster, conducted a mock draft and his pick at No. 10 for the Bears was none other than Jeanty.

In fact, Foster's mock draft did something which almost seems complete lunacy, and he had Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders drop right out of the top 10 but Jeanty still found a way to make it to the Bears at No. 10. His mock has Sanders plummet all the way to the Steelers in Aaron Rodgers fashion, finally landing at No. 21.

If the Bears found a way to get Jeanty with Sanders out of the top 10, it almost would seem like fate.

This mock and the odds from ESPN are all happenstance but the Bears' need for a running back is not and if the 54% chance is even close to being true, John Spytek and also Mark Davis might have one very unhappy 10-year-old to deal with come Day 1 of the draft.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.