Bear Digest

Stunning Bears cap cut projection means losing key starters

Overthecap.com presents its analytical approach to potential NFL cap cuts and the Bears rank high for number of possible cuts, including valued starters.
Gene Chamberlain|
Could T.J. Edwards be a roster cut? One website in the business of looking at the cap says so.
Could T.J. Edwards be a roster cut? One website in the business of looking at the cap says so. | David Banks-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

Bears GM Ryan Poles might be involved in finding a coach for now but soon enough he'll be analyzing his roster to figure out who figures into the team's future.

If an analytical approach is right, there's a better than 50-50 chance they could be cutting five players including very productive veteran defensive players from their roster.

Overthecap.com has posted an analytical look at 100 players likely to be trimmed for cap purposes and Poles would be very busy come mid-March. They have the Bears cutting five players. 

Only four teams would have more cap cuts than the Bears by this analytical approach.

The surprising names for the Bears would be middle linebackers T.J. Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds and safety Kevin Byard. Also on the list are defensive end DeMarcus Walker and tight end Gerald Everett.

Everett would shock no one as he was brought to Chicago for two years and is due $5.5 million for the 2025 season but made eight receptions.

The linebackers being listed, as well as Byard, are real jolts because of productivity and other circumstances. Byard and Edwards especially are stunners.

In Edwards' case, it's stunning because he isn't paid a really high amount, has produced on the field and has the highest percentage for a negative fate according to their metrics. His negative fate is calculated at 76.5%, which is even more than Everett's 64.5%. And Edwards counts only $5.5 million against the cap for next year. His contract expires after 2025, which can greatly impact the percentage.

For instance, Edwards' release is calculated at only 56.3% but he has two years left on his contract even if it is at a whopping $15 million cost for next season.

Both Edwards and Edmunds had relatively low grades from Pro Football Focus for their efforts this year. Neither made it into the top 50 league-wide, Edwards ranked 52nd after a strong 2023 season and Edmunds at 57th.

Byard's situation makes sense only from a cost standpoint because he's due $7 million but it's a relatively low 53.7% chance he'd be cut.

While the linebackers and Byard seem unlikely cuts, what the chart also does is reveal a number of players league-wide who could become available for buyers and are not free agents at the moment. Among those are players like Geno Smith, Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce, Aaron Rodgers, Joey Bosa, Christian Kirk, Tyler Lockett, Deebo Samuel and Jaire Alexander.

OTC explains: "The metrics used are OTC's estimation of contract fate, and the regular season OTC Valuation metric from 2024 when compared to the league median, to try to forecast a more accurate picture."

Numerous other variables are taken into account, although they didn't say whether the possibility of scheme change is factored into it. This could happen with the Bears defense, depending on the head coaching hire.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.