No. 10 Draft Pick History May Have Pushed Cincinnati to Make Dexter Lawrence Trade

The Bengals had a tough decision to make entering 2026 NFL Draft week: Take a risk on the 10th pick in the draft with a rookie selection, or take a different risk by trading for a 28-year-old star defensive tackle, Dexter Lawrence.

Cincinnati's brass chose the latter option, and history says that's the right decision, given how difficult even the 10th pick can be to hit in a draft.

Dan Rogers broke down the history of 10th overall picks and only 25% turn into great players of the caliber Lawrence is bringing to the Queen City.

Rough Pick History

Oct 16, 2022; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Giants defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence (97) celebrates a sack against the Baltimore Ravens during the second quarter at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images | Brad Penner-Imagn Images

"Did the Cincinnati Bengals make the right move trading for Dexter Lawrence? Statistically speaking, they did. Of the last 20 players selected 10th overall... 25% were great, 35% were decent, 40% were busts. The Bengals landed themselves a sure thing," Rogers posted on X.

Since 2006, only five picks produced an Approximate Value on Football Reference over 6.6 (Patrick Mahomes, Todd Gurley, Jerod Mayo, Stephon Gilmore, and Garrett Wilson). It's really hard to hit even a pick this high because the true blue-chip prospect bin only has about 5-7 names in it on average every draft.

Cincinnati pushed in one first-round pick instead of the typical two it's taken to deal for big stars this decade, and they didn't have to sign him to a long-term extension. It just came with a one-year, $28 million added year to bring his Cincinnati commitment to three years, $70 million.

That ranks third in average cash among defensive tackles, well behind Chris Jones at roughly $31 million per year. Cincinnati didn't have to pay the usual massive premium for an already proven star. The added cost of Lawrence is also not greatly higher per year than the beloved cost-controlled deal of a first-round pick.

According to salary cap expert Andre Perrota, Cincinnati is paying him about $10 million more this season than they would've paid the completely unproven 10th pick.

All in all, the Bengals' leadership made an uncharacteristic move in a tough spot.

"The opportunity to add a player of Dexter's ability was too good to pass up thanks to the commitment by Mr. Brown, Katie Blackburn, Troy Blackburn, Paul Brown, and our player personnel staff," Bengals executive Duke Tobin said in a statement on Sunday. "Dexter fits the vision we have for our defense and will also elevate others around him. We are confident in Dexter and can't wait to see the positive effects he and the other players we have acquired this offseason have on our football team. We are excited to turn to the draft and our remaining picks to further enhance our team."

Check out the recent 10th pick history below and NFL Network's Tom Pelisero noting the Bengals had seven top talents in mind with nine selections ahead of them:

Did the Cincinnati Bengals make the right move trading for Dexter Lawrence? Statistically speaking, they did.

Of the last 20 players selected 10th overall...
25% were great
35% were decent
40% were busts

The Bengals landed themselves a sure thing. pic.twitter.com/t8ZghQqatq
— Dan Rogers (@DannyPhantom24) April 19, 2026

Inside the Dexter Lawrence trade from the perspective of the Bengals, who acquired an impact player in exchange for a high draft pick they didn’t think would yield the same. @nflnetwork @gmfb pic.twitter.com/2qnrB6V3Ss
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) April 20, 2026

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