Stat of the Jay: Where Does Bengals QB Joe Burrow Rank Among Most Successful Comeback Quarterbacks?

CINCINNATI – Ideas for a Stat of the Jay article come from all areas, and today’s is courtesy of a post on X by veteran baseball scribe Bob Nightengale.

It listed the best and worst comeback teams in MLB this season, with the Dodgers sitting atop the pack entering Sunday with a 13-10 record in games in which they trailed.

The White Sox (2-24) and Rockies (3-27) were the worst.

So, naturally, I wondered how that translates to the NFL.

As you would expect, no one had more comeback wins in the 2024 regular season than the Chiefs, who trailed in 11 of their 15 wins.

Kansas City became the first team in NFL history to come from behind to win 11 times in a season.

The 2022 Vikings, 2020 Chiefs, 2011 Patriots, 2003 Colts, 1983 Cowboys and 1980 Falcons each had 10 come-from-behind victories.

The Bengals’ record is seven comeback wins, which they initially set in 1986 and recently matched in 2021.

In 2024, they were 4-8 in games in which they trailed.

If we up the parameter to trailing by at least seven points, the NFL record for coming back from that sizable deficit is eight by the 1983 Cowboys and 1998 49ers.

The Cincinnati record for wins after trailing by 7+ points is four.

It’s something they’ve done 11 times – 1972, 1981, 1984, 1986, 1988, 1989, 1996, 2003, 2009, 2011 and 2022.

The 2024 Bengals had three such wins, rallying from exactly seven points down against the Raiders, Titans and Cowboys.

A big reason the Chiefs set the NFL record for comeback wins in 2024 is because of Patrick Mahomes.

Some people will argue that quarterback wins are not a relevant stat, and it’s a topic worthy of discussion. Because if a defense posts a shutout, the quarterback play is irrelevant.

And if a team runs for 300 yards, the correlation between quarterback and victory is devalued.

But when a team rallies for a comeback win, the quarterback’s role is much more important and almost always a valid measurable.

So with that said, let’s look at the quarterbacks with the most comeback wins in NFL history.

Mahomes was 11-1 in 2024 in games he started and trailed at some point. The 11 wins are an NFL record.

The career leader is Tom Brady with 118 wins, followed by Peyton Manning (88), Ben Roethlisberger (70), Brett Favre (69) and Drew Brees (61).

The Bengals career leader is Ken Anderson with 29.

When we filter the deficits to 7+ points, the record belongs to Tom Brady (54), followed by Peyton Manning (39), Roethlisberger (37), Danny White (37) and Dan Marino (36).

Anderson again is the Bengals record holder with 26, which means 26 of his 29 comeback wins were by at least seven points.

Mahomes only has 30 comebacks of 7+points, but he also only has 18 losses.

His .625 winning percentage is by far the best in NFL history among quarterbacks who had at least 32 starts in which they fell behind by 7+ points.

Only one other quarterback in history even has a .500 record in such games (minimum 32 such games started):

Lamar Jackson .500 (19-19)

Rounding out the Top 10 are:

Tom Brady .479 (70-76)

Danny White .460 (40-47)

Roger Staubach .458 (27-32)

Steve Young .452 (33-40)

Jim McMahon .431 (22-29)

Peyton Manning .430 (52-69)

Joe Montana .420 (34-47)

Jim Kelly .414 (36-51)

That Mahomes is so far ahead of every other Hall of Fame quarterback is remarkable.

But what about quarterbacks in the Joe Burrow era (2020-present)?

Mahomes obviously is the leader in overall comeback wins, while Burrow sits just outside the Top 10 in a tie for 13th with 21 comeback wins.

The top 10 looks like this:

Patrick Mahomes 39

Josh Allen 30

Kirk Cousins 28

Aaron Rodgers 28

Jalen Hurts 28

Derek Carr 27

Russell Wilson 26

Jared Goff 25

Lamar Jackson 24

Matthew Stafford 24

In teams of winning percentage among players who have trailed in at least 17 games they have started since 2020, Mahomes again is the runaway leader.

Patrick Mahomes .709 (39-16)

Josh Allen .577 (30-22)

Ben Roethlisberger .565 (13-10)

Lamar Jackson .533 (24-21)

Tom Brady .526 (20-18)

Aaron Rodgers .509 (28-27)

Jalen Hurts .509 (28-27)

Kenny Pickett .500 (12-12)

Tua Tagovailoa .478 (22-24)

Kirk Cousins .467 (28-32).

When it comes to comebacks of 7+ points, Mahomes has 24, Rodgers 18 and Hurts and Allen each have 16.

And the best winning percentages when trailing by 7+ points belong to Mahomes .649, Jackson .538, Roethlisberger .526, Allen .500 and Rodgers .450.

Which quarterbacks are least likely to rally a team from a 7-point deficit?

There are 38 quarterbacks who have started at least 17 games in which their team trailed by 7+ points.

Three of the bottom 10 winning percentages belong to quarterbacks who are current starters.

Justin Fields .097 (3-28)

Bryce Young .120 (3-22)

Tedd Bridgewater .125 (3-21)

Drew Lock .143 (3-18)

Davis Mills .143 (4-24)

Mac Jones .156 (5-27)

Carson Wentz .167 (4-22)

Deshaun Watson .185 (5-22)

Gardner Minshew .188 (6-26)

Trevor Lawrence .190 (8-34)

Burrow’s win percentage of .316 (12-26) is 13th best.

None of those teams with double-digit comeback wins went on to win the Super Bowl.

But there was a surprise team tied with the Eagles.

The Seattle Seahawks, who didn’t make the playoffs, rallied from behind six times as well on their way to a 10-7 season.

The Cincinnati Bengals?

They only came from behind twice, which was tied for the fewest such wins in the league.

The Bengals came from behind against

At 118-76, Brady’s .608 winning percentage only ranks sixth among quarterbacks with at least 50 starts.

Mahomes is first with a .685 winning percentage (50-23), followed by Ken Stabler .646 (41-22), Drew Brees .616 (61-38), Peyton Manning.611 (88-56) and Joe Montana .609 (56-36).