Why the Odds Are Stacked Against Bengals QB Joe Burrow Winning MVP Award This Year

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow has the third best odds to win the NFL MVP award this year behind Buffalo’s Josh Allen and Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson.

Burrow, whose highest finish in MVP voting has been fourth in both 2024 and 2022, is healthy again missing more than half of the games last year due to a turf-toe injury that required surgery.

His good MVP odds coupled with the fact that he only played eight games last year prompted a listener question on this week’s Growler Podcast:

How many MVP winners were coming off a season in which they missed significant time?

The answer doesn’t bode well for Burrow.

But the feat isn’t totally unprecedented.

The last time an NFL MVP was coming off a season in which he played fewer than 16 games was Jackson in 2023 after a knee injury forced him to miss the final five regular-season games and the wildcard contest against the Bengals in 2022.

Patrick Mahomes won the MVP in 2018 after playing in just one game in 2017, but that was because the Chiefs sat him as a rookie behind Alex Smith.

Tom Brady won the 2017 MVP after playing only 12 games in 2016, but that, too, was a different situation. Brady was suspended for the first four games in 2016 due to the Deflategate investigation.

The last – and only – player since 2000 to win MVP after player fewer than 10 games due to injury the previous season was Aaron Rodgers.

A broken collarbone in 2013 limited Rodgers to nine games, but he came in 2014 to throw 38 touchdowns and five interceptions, which led to him receiving 31 of the 50 MVP votes.

If you take out the Mahomes outlier, the other 25 MVPs since 2000 averaged 15.02 games played the previous season.

Only two others were coming off a season in which they missed at least four games – 2012 MVP Adrian Peterson missed four games in 2011 due to a December ACL tear, and 2001 MVP Kurt Warner missed five games in the middle of 2000 with a broken finger.

The last Bengals player to win MVP was Boomer Esiason in 1988. He only played 12 games the previous season, but that was do to the players’ strike and use of replacement players for three games in what ended up being a 15-game season.

Ken Anderson won the MVP in 1981 after missing three games in 1980 due to a neck sprain caused by Pittsburgh defensive lineman Keith Gary grabbing his facemask and violently jerking it as he pulled Anderson to the ground.

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