Bills Predicted to Overcome Slow Start, Reclaim AFC East Title in 2026

The Buffalo Bills had become the kings of the AFC East, winning the division five years in a row. That ended in 2025, when the New England Patriots shocked everybody with the record of 14-3.

It was a breakout campaign for quarterback Drake Maye, who helped guide his team to the Super Bowl. Considering they were just competing for a championship, it wouldn't be surprising to see New England favored to win the division again. Not everyone believes that will be the case, however, even with Buffalo going through some major changes after firing head coach Sean McDermott.

Not only is Joe Brady entering his first season as a head coach, but the Bills are also turning to a rookie defensive coordinator as well in Jim Leonhard. The coaching change could have a positive impact long-term, but SI.com's Connor Orr believes it could lead to a slow start in the season. Orr has Buffalo going 2-3 in their first five games, but then has them catching fire from that point on. In his full season prediction, Orr sees the Bills going 10-7, slightly edging out the Patriots who he has at 9-8.

"As for the layout of the schedule itself, Buffalo’s season has clear chapters. This is not a glorious start, and the Bills make up for a hard opening road with the gift of four games against the Jets and Dolphins after their bye week. The tale-of-two-halves breakdown here (Buffalo begins the season 2–3) signals an all-new coaching staff that needs time to figure out its own personality," Orr wrote.

Jim Leonhard is the key to Buffalo Bills reclaiming the division

Bills defense coordinator Jim Leonhard talks to someone on the sidelines before practice at Bills Training Camp. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

While discussing the Bills' chances in 2026, Orr makes it clear that he is a big believer in Jim Leonhard. Orr says that the Buffalo defensive coordinator is "going to be one of the best defensive coaches in the NFL one day," and praised the way he handled the RPO while at Wisconsin.

That said, expecting the defense to be a well-oiled machine in Week 1 might be a tough ask. The Bills have several new faces on the roster, including Bradley Chubb, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Dee Alford, T.J. Parker, and Davison Igbinosun. They're also moving to more of a 3-4 front, which means returning players such as Ed Oliver and Greg Rousseau will be asked to change their style of play.

Thankfully, the roster is well-suited to fit Leonhard's vision, but that doesn't mean there won't be a slight learning curve early in the season. That's the case in this prediction, but the Bills have the veteran leadership to weather the storm, and still find a way to reclaim the top spot in their division.

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