Buffalo Bills Viewed as AFC East Favorites Despite Lower 2026 Win Projection

The Buffalo Bills were recently predicted to win the AFC East, even with a win total that isn't as high as in 2025.

Buffalo Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir runs against the New England Patriots during the first half at Gillette Stadium. | Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

The Buffalo Bills finished the 2025 season with a record of 12-5, which was their seventh consecutive campaign with double-digit wins. It was also their seventh straight trip to the postseason, although they did see one streak snapped.

With the New England Patriots finishing with a record of 14-3, the Bills' five-year reign as AFC East champions came to an end. Entering 2026, they have a new head coach in Joe Brady and are going through a shift in their defensive scheme as well with Jim Leonhard taking over as their new defensive coordinator.

Those changes were done in hopes of pushing through the playoff wall, but it would be helpful to also reclaim the East to ensure they get as many home games in the postseason as possible. In a recent season prediction from SI.com's Matt Verderame, the Bills are able to take the division back, even though their win total isn't as high.

Bills stand atop the AFC East in new prediction

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen runs against the New England Patriots during the second half at Gillette Stadium. | Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

Verderame predicts an 11-5 finish for Buffalo, with New England behind them at 9-8. He has plenty of faith in Allen, but a tough schedule and the potential for early hiccups due to the defensive change have Verderame seeing a few bumps in the road during the year.

"The Bills are the most talented team in this division. They have a cyborg at quarterback in former MVP Josh Allen. Expect them to contend for the AFC’s top seed while getting back to the AFC East penthouse," Verderame wrote. "However, there are a few concerns. One, the defense is switching schemes under new coordinator Jim Leonhard, so there will be bumps early. And the early schedule is no joke, including four playoff teams from a year ago: the Texans, Chargers, Patriots and Rams."

Bills reclaiming AFC East would be huge for their confidence

Buffalo Bills running back James Cook III leaps over Kansas City Chiefs safety Bryan Cook. | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

Reclaiming the division would be a huge confidence boost for the Bills, who had grown accustomed to being the kings of the East.

Since Josh Allen took over as their starting quarterback, they've become the bullies in a division that was dominated by the Patriots for far too long. Taking back that title after a one-year hiatus is exactly what they need to head into the postseason with true momentum.

The only issue in this prediction from Verderame is that Buffalo would be the No. 3 seed. That means they would have a home game in the Wild Card Round, but they wouldn't be guaranteed another beyond that, with the Kansas City Chiefs and Jacksonville Jaguars as the top two seeds.

Should they have to play in Jacksonville, they already proved they can win there in the postseason, doing so last year. The Chiefs, however, are a different story as the Bills are 0-4 against them in the playoffs during Allen era. Beating them won't be easy no matter where they play, but being at home would be helpful.