What Happens If Bills Trade Down at NFL Draft? Mapping Every Realistic Scenario

Will the Buffalo Bills opt for a 2024 repeat this Thursday night at the 2026 NFL Draft?

With the Bills holding the No. 26 overall selection in Round 1, it certainly seems possible.

"In this case, we get to pick 26, is this something we're fired up to take the player? Or is this something we would prefer, there'll be a player there that we like that can help us, but is it something we prefer to trade back and get that player in Round 2 while adding some additional compensation?" said Bills' general manager Brandon Beane.

In 2024, the Bills entered with the No. 28 overall selection before trading it to the Kansas City Chiefs for No. 32 overall, a third-round pick and a seventh-rounder.

Next, Buffalo flipped the Chiefs' first-round pick to the Carolina Panthers in exchange for the first selection in Round 2 (No. 33 overall) and a 59-spot move up the board on Day 3 (from 200 to 141). With the No. 33 overall selection, the Bills drafted Florida State wide receiver Keon Coleman.

Buffalo Bills wide receiver Keon Coleman after getting tripped up stumbles towards the end zone and gets the ball into the end zone before hitting the ground for a touchdown during second-half action at Empower FIeld at Mile High in Denver on Jan. 17, 2026. | Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Rochester Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

With the Bills unlikely to have 26 prospects holding true first-round grades in this year's draft class, a trade down would make sense if the value isn't available when their spot in the order arrives.

In theory, Buffalo's move down the board wouldn't preclude it from drafting a prospect that it could've reached for at No. 26 overall.

Earlier this month, we wrote about the potential of landing Georgia linebacker CJ Allen as part of a proposal, from Sports Illustrated's Matthew Verderame, that involved the Bills sliding down from No. 26 to No. 30 overall.

The Athletic's Joe Buscaglia projected a scenario where Buffalo trades down two spots to No. 28 overall and still winds up with an edge rusher in the form of Central Florida's Malachi Lawrence.

Here are the three most likely Thursday night scenarios for the Bills.

Scenario 1 — Bills stand pat at No. 26, take BPA

If Auburn edge rusher Keldric Faulk or a similar caliber prospect is available at a position of need, then it makes sense for the Bills to use the No. 26 overall selection to fill a hole.

There's a decent likelihood, however, that there are no first-round graded players remaining for Buffalo at 26th in the order.

"You probably don't get as many consensus names anywhere near getting to 26," said Beane. "I think there's players that feel like they're going in [Round] 1, but their agent, or someone close to them, also realizes they could go anywhere from 20 to 40. There's always players like that. I would say there's probably maybe more in that category this year.”

There's always the possibility that a wide receiver winds up being the best player available to Buffalo late in Round 1. Despite having already used their second-round pick to trade for wide receiver DJ Moore, would the Bills pull the trigger on a KC Concepcion or Denzel Boston?

Assuming the Bills view the available prospects as first-round caliber, then why not double dip and turn wide receiver into a position of strength?

Nov 8, 2025; Columbia, Missouri, USA; Texas A&M Aggies wide receiver KC Concepcion (7) runs for a touchdown during the second half against the Missouri Tigers | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Scenario 2 — Bills trade out of Round 1 for more mid-round value

Considering Bills' brass doesn't seem blown away by the value offered in Round 1 this year, giving up their first-round pick in exchange for more selections may actually be their preferred way forward.

"It's not as deep at the top, but I do think there are depths, and there are areas in this draft where you can find players to help your team," said Beane. "It's on us to figure out what the value of those guys are and where to get as many players as you can in the right value for your team. You're trying to just help your team this weekend."

Ideally, the Bills can recoup a Round 2 pick and add a valuable third-rounder if they're able to find a taker for the No. 26 overall selection. Of course, finding a trade partner may be the biggest obstacle.

"We'll see what's there. As always, it's no different, even if I had three 2s, if someone's offered me something that makes sense to go back, we'd do that," said Beane.

Sep 15, 2019; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Giants general manager Dave Gettleman (left) pose for a photo with Buffalo Bills general manager Brandon Beane before the game between their game at MetLife Stadium. | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Scenario 3 — Bills move up for plug-and-play starter

The Bills have made both big and small moves up the board in Round 1 during Beane's tenure, but there doesn't appear to be any good reason to take that route this year.

"It's harder to go up, but I think with us, you'd never say never," said Beane.

First, the Bills don't have a major need like they did when they jumped up to No. 7 overall for quarterback Josh Allen in 2018. One can also argue that there isn't even a need worth moving up two spots for like they did for tight end Dalton Kincaid in 2023.

Buffalo's most-pressing need is arguably at linebacker, and it's rare for teams to use first-round draft capital on that position. It's worth noting the Bills landed linebackers Terrel Bernard (2022) and Dorian Williams (2023) in the later stage of the third round.

In 2025, Buffalo selected defensive tackle Deone Walker in Round 4 and tight end Jackson Hawes in Round 5. With both rookies having quickly emerged as solid contributors, Beane may be inspired to load up on the mid-round selections as opposed to using them to trade up in Round 1 for a single player, who may, or may not, be the next Kaiir Elam.

Apr 26, 2018; Arlington, TX, USA; Josh Allen is selected as the number seven overall pick to the Buffalo Bills in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft | Matthew Emmons-Imagn Images

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